"A military situation at its worst can inspire fighting men to perform at their best."
- Marguerite Higgins, War in Korea: The Report of a Woman Combat Correspondent
"In Korea the Government forces, which were armed to prevent border raids and to preserve internal security, were attacked by invading forces from North Korea....The attack upon Korea makes it plain beyond all doubt that communism has passed beyond the use of subversion to conquer independent nations and will now use armed invasion and war." -President Harry Truman
"East Asia has prospered since the end of the Vietnam War, and Northeast Asia has prospered since the end of the Korean War in a way that seems unimaginable when you think of the history of the first half of the century."
- William C. Kirby
Note the analysis of markets and prices. Yes the Korean people in the north live an extremely difficult life compared to almost every country in the world but their resilience is simply astounding. The north is receiving aid (primarily from China). But this is the key point: "The coming harvest will likely not be disastrously low, but will not be as good as it needs to be. Chronic food shortages are normal in North Korea, and much of the general public consumes far fewer calories than their daily need even in a good year. Several factors make projections and analyses particularly uncertain. The border closure related to COVID-19 makes imports of fertilizer, seeds and most likely food much more difficult and time consuming, as all cargo has to go through thorough inspections and sanitization. China may well shore up North Korea's food supply should the harvest turn out to be poor, although such aid may not reach those in greatest need."
The North Korean Economy: The Pandemic and North Korean Food Security | 38 North: Informed Analysis of North Korea
38north.org · by Benjamin Katzeff Silberstein · May 28, 2020
Women collecting vegetables to bags on the field, Chongsalli, North Korea, April 2008. (Photo: istockphoto.com/narvikk)
Last Year, Into the Present: The Food Crisis That Didn't Come?
Last year, the World Food Program
warned of possible large-scale shortages and appealed for aid. It still has not been fully confirmed how difficult things actually got, but no solid data suggested a widespread crisis. South Korea's Ministry of Unification (MOU)
recently stated that North Korea's harvest last year (presumably including this year's winter harvest) was lower than the three-year average, making the current food situation difficult since what is currently consumed was harvested last year. This is an accurate but somewhat misleading representation of the South Korean government's own research. The South Korean Rural Development Administration estimate, released last December, which the MOU built its statement on, claimed that North Korea's harvest was 4.64 million tons. Although lower than the three-year average, this would, in fact, mark an increase from the estimate of the preceding year's harvest of
4.55 million tons.
The numbers on the 2019 harvest are indeed confusing with lots of mixed signals. While his government asked for international aid some months before, Kim Jong Un late last year made the highly dubious claim that North Korea saw its "best harvest on record." This would have required harvests to
almost double, from around "five million tons in 2018, to surpassing eight million tons in 2019."
Graph 1. North Korean food production of cereals in millions of tons. Data source: FAOSTAT (Food and Agriculture Organization Corporate Statistical Database). Graph by Benjamin Katzeff Silberstein/NK Econ Watch.
This claim is extremely unrealistic, and even figures reported by the North Korean government itself contradict it. The United Nation's "
DPR Korea Needs and Priorities 2020" plan contains harvest figures provided by the North Korean Ministry of Agriculture:
Graph 2. Screenshot from the United Nation's "DPR Korea Needs and Priorities 2020" plan, p. 15. For original source, see: United Nations Resident Coordinator for DPR Korea, DPR Korea Needs and Priorities 2020, April 2020, https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/2020_DPRK_Needs_and-Priorities_Plan.pdf, accessed May 26, 2020.
Most likely, North Korean state authorities have been under political pressure to report inaccurately high figures because of the official claim, made by Kim himself, of a record harvest. The figure of 6.6 million tons is also unrealistically high, but nowhere near as far-fetched as the claim of a doubled harvest. Judging by all currently available information, North Korea's food situation over the past year was somewhat difficult but not disastrous. Most likely, harvest yields were lower than they should be to support healthy consumption, but
mitigated by aid from China to some extent.
The Current Food Situation
Total estimates such as those above do not give the whole picture. They say something about overall food production, but little about who can access it. The state distributes a proportion of total food production in the country, though it is unknown precisely how much. Under the new system introduced under Kim Jong Un, the state reportedly takes between 60 and 70 percent of the harvest and lets farmers dispose of the rest. This still leaves the majority of food subject to some form of state distribution, likely through workplaces such as state-owned factories and the bureaucracy. We do know that particularly during the lean season between May and September when North Korean food stocks run particularly low, a greater proportion of North Koreans rely on the market system for the majority of their food consumption. A significant proportion of the population, perhaps the majority, already does through the rest of the year.
Thus, market prices tell us something crucial about how much food is available, and about the general view of markets in the allocation of food. Market prices were somewhat higher than usual over the past few months. The COVID-19 border closure has made markets nervous in general, and it may be that the general public is aware that a
shortage of fertilizer and other farming equipment looms, and thus expect future shortages.
Reports from
inside the country have also suggested that the situation after the last harvest has been quite challenging. The difficulty of importing goods in general, including food, likely contributed to the high food prices around March and April.
Graph 3. Rice prices in North Korean won per kilogram, average of three cities (Pyongyang, Sinuiju and Hyesan). Data source: Daily NK. By Benjamin Katzeff Silberstein/North Korean Economy Watch.
The markets are a crucial mechanism for food provision and, unlike state provisions, they react to changes in supply and demand. The signs that the regime is
increasingly cracking down on some aspects of market activity-though by no means against the entire system itself-are, therefore,
particularly worrying in the context of food security. General anxiety about the markets will likely cause prices to rise overall, and more constrained market actors will have a negative effect on the supply of food.
North Korea may also get substantial food provisions through aid.
Radio Free Asia reported in January that significant aid shipments were planned from China to North Korea. This report was never officially confirmed, and the scale of the reported aid is unknown. Russia donated 25,000 tons of wheat earlier this month, but this is not a very sizeable amount since it is estimated that North Korea requires 5.5 million tons per year for the entire population to be fed, and the country may need almost 900,000 tons to reach this target. China will likely supply more substantial aid should the situation become dire and there are reports that such aid is in the works. A North Korean delegation was
slated to visit Beijing in late April for talks on food aid and trade.
Finally, the weather is a crucial factor. So far this year, the rainy season has been similar to those of the past few years. Soil humidity has been good this year, according to a source with contacts in agriculture in the country, and this is an important factor for crop growth conditions. Rain over the coming few weeks, however, will be crucial for crop production as a whole.
Graph 4. Average rainfall in North Korea per year in millimeters, January to May 2017 to 2020. Data source: South Korea's National Weather Data Center, https://data.kma.go.kr/cmmn/main.do. Graph by Benjamin Katzeff Silberstein. Please note: the numbers for 2020 only stretch till late May, while those for other years include the entire month.
More Muddling Through
The coming harvest will likely not be disastrously low, but will not be as good as it needs to be. Chronic food shortages are normal in North Korea, and much of the general public consumes far fewer calories than their daily need even in a good year. Nonetheless, for China, substantial aid to North Korea costs virtually nothing and Beijing will likely shore up food supply if necessary. The question is how such aid would be distributed. Unlike the markets, government distribution involves political choice, and the government may not prioritize those in greatest need. The rigidity of border controls will also be crucial to watch since it will determine how easily fertilizer, seeds and food can enter the country. And, of course, the most unpredictable factor-the weather-will be essential.
I am grateful to Keith Luse, Peter Ward and Daniel Wertz, as well as one analyst who wishes to remain anonymous, for valuable discussions on the topic.
I am grateful to Daniel Wertz of the National Committee on North Korea for pointing this out.
[1] Judging by current conditions, food production this year may well be low, but probably not catastrophically so, or really much out of the ordinary compared to the past few years. Several factors make projections and analyses particularly uncertain. The border closure related to COVID-19 makes imports of fertilizer, seeds and most likely food much more difficult and time consuming, as all cargo has to go through thorough inspections and sanitization. China may well shore up North Korea's food supply should the harvest turn out to be poor, although such aid may not reach those in greatest need. Regime crackdowns on some aspects of market activity may also hamper its ability to supply food in an efficient manner. Much will also depend on weather conditions over the coming months.
FDD is a Washington-based nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.
If you do not read anything else in the 2017 National Security Strategy read this on page 14:
"A democracy is only as resilient as its people. An informed and engaged citizenry is the fundamental requirement for a free and resilient nation. For generations, our society has protected free press, free speech, and free thought. Today, actors such as Russia are using information tools in an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of democracies. Adversaries target media, political processes, financial networks, and personal data. The American public and private sectors must recognize this and work together to defend our way of life. No external threat can be allowed to shake our shared commitment to our values, undermine our system of government, or divide our Nation."
