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October marks the first full month of fall, which naturally prompts the question "So, how is the market?"
First, the numbers:
Total listing inventory is up 32% from August, though still 14% below last year. Contracts signed declined in September, which is typical. In the luxury sector summer is the slower season, and September contract volume reflects deals negotiated in August when many buyers were in vacation-mode. Year to date, contracts signed are essentially flat versus 2025, with the $3M+ segment up ~5% while the rest of the market has softened.
Takeaway: we’re in a relatively balanced market with low inventory and a resilient, but measured, buyer base. Competitively priced, move-in-ready listings over $3 million are behaving closest to a seller’s market.
In the absence of dramatic price moves, life-stage changes are driving much of who’s buying and selling. And right now, much of that is generational.
Three of my last listings were empty nesters ready for their next chapter, selling to younger families looking for more space. The great wealth transfer is also putting family capital to work, allowing some younger buyers to compete without a mortgage in a market that favors all cash. And buyers are buying bigger: as of the end of the third quarter, the average Manhattan apartment sold was the largest in six years.
Lastly, I’m seeing the map of prime real estate evolve along with today’s buyers:
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The Upper East Side’s luxury sector now reaches farther east. New development, alongside a wave of new restaurants and retail, has brought price points to Second and Third Avenues that weren’t possible years ago. There remains an undeniable cachet to being west of Lexington, but today’s buyer is also heavily weighing space, layout and condition—and increasingly willing to move east to get them.
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Greenpoint and Williamsburg have grown up. Single-family homes and premium new developments are a new product category there, now trading at $5–6M to buyers who love the area and want to stay as their families grow.
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Luxury spans the bridge. Tribeca, Greenwich Village and Brownstone Brooklyn increasingly share the same buyer.
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