Dear Clients and Friends,

September 2024 brought the beginning of the Fall selling season and finally some concrete relief among the most directly real-estate-related of the three ‘general uncertainty’ categories of i) interest rates; ii) the election; iii) and geopolitical developments.  Specifically, the Fed cut rates by 50 basis points during its September meeting, marking its first reduction in approximately 4 years.  While lower interest rates (isolated from other market factors) generally lead to more robust or increasing residential real estate prices, it’s a bit premature to predict how quickly (and to what degree) the NYC residential market will respond.  In our own recent experience representing both sellers and buyers, over the past ~1.5 months we’ve seen several potential purchasers who have been circling homes for some time (perhaps held back by uncertainty on the future of the market) now put in bids on well-priced properties -- particularly if they do not require renovation.  Although it’s too early to call a trend, September 2024 monthly signed contract activity was ~21% higher than the same month last year and represented the first time it met/exceeded the historical average since May of 2023.  The monthly supply of new listings also increased in September, as is typical. 

The luxury market (sales $4M+) recorded 97 contracts signed over the last month and beat out the 10-year September monthly signed contract average of 71. 

Lastly, we thought it would be informative to turn to performance in the NYC office market, since the presence of both dynamic industries and (at least partial) in-person office attendance is clearly impactful for the draw of our residential market.  As of 3Q24 Manhattan commercial YTD leasing activity reached ~23.1 million square feet, a 25% year-over-year increase.  In fact, if leasing continues at its current pace it would exceed 30 million square feet by the end of 2024, a level not achieved since 2019 before the pandemic.  In related good news for the strength of NoMad and adjacent neighborhoods, Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge fund firm, just executed a 60,000 square foot lease at 295 Fifth Avenue (Fifth Avenue between 30-31st Streets).