Dear Clients and Friends,

The October 2024 market pulse ticked up slightly, driven by an increase in signed purchase contracts coupled with an approximately 20% decrease in new listings. The reduction in new listing supply was somewhat expected since many sellers were unlikely to list their property immediately before a presidential election. It was, however, noteworthy that the 999 contracts signed in October marked the first time monthly contract activity exceeded the historical average since May.

The Manhattan luxury market (sales over $4 million) saw 103 contracts signed in October, an increase from the prior month’s 73. Zeroing in further, the ultra-luxury new development sector had an especially good month, with 17 contracts signed for units over $10 million – a top-five record for the last 10 years. Brooklyn sales over $2 million also had a strong October (particularly higher-priced townhouse sales), nearly doubling the volume of signed contracts compared to October 2023.

Lastly, we wanted to briefly touch on the election results. To be clear, we are purely focusing on the impacts of a Trump presidency from the perspective of factors that might affect the New York residential market -- while keeping in mind that we cannot definitively predict what policies will be put in place in the future. That said, based on Trump’s previous statements it is likely that 1031 exchanges (which allow investors to defer capital gains taxes from real estate sales) will remain in place. Trump has also indicated that he would amend his prior decision and now supports removing the $10,000 cap on the State and Local Tax (SALT) deductions, which currently disproportionally adversely affects high real estate and income tax states like New York. The next president will also likely act from a more pro-developer and less regulatory business point of view. The future of mortgage rates is a bit murkier. While Trump has repeatedly expressed a desire to keep interest rates low, many of his stated policy goals (e.g. tariffs) could prove inflationary and therefore make it more difficult for the FED to meaningfully cut rates which could see a corresponding effect on mortgage rates.