The USDA released their April WASDE report which only included minimal revisions to both the long grain and medium grain balance sheets. In fact, the only change to the long grain balance sheet was a reduction in imports which ultimately lowered ending stocks by 500,000 cwts. Coincidentally, the USDA raised their season average farm price projection by $0.20 per cwt. The USDA left medium grain untouched outside of a slight adjustment to pricing despite the recent surge in demand. For now, the USDA projects long grain ending stocks to be down 58% year over year at 13.7 million cwts. 

The current projected stocks-to-use ratio of 12.7% would be the lowest since 2007/08 and is a likely reason for long grain prices returning a $1.50 per cwt more than last year. Overall, all rice season-average farm prices firmed this month as the USDA bumped it’s US rice price forecast by $0.20 per cwt to $13.20 per over loan. 

In the cash market, tight supplies in Louisiana continued to drive up cash prices, where quotes were reported up $2 per cwt against last week. With Texas old crop depleted, buyers are beginning to look to new crop and are already offering $12 per cwt. The story remains similar in Mississippi and Arkansas where scarce supplies make it difficult to pin down spot pricing. The latest report pegs the Arkansas cash price at $14.40 delivered mill. While Arkansas looks poised to make strong headway in planting in the coming days, Mississippi continues to be hamstrung by weather.  Conditions in Missouri are beginning to improve, and it appears that groundwork should commence soon, assuming weather allows.

Nearby contracts for most grains finished up today as the Fed sought to push through a new lending plan that would provide $2.3 trillion to prop the US economy. The July rough rice contract ticked up $0.205 per cwt and settled at $14.295 while the September contract gained $0.10 per cwt and settled at $12.045 per cwt. A $2.25 spread between these two contracts is unusual at this time and should converge some in the weeks ahead.  

COVID-COVID-COVID-AGAIN

As is evident, Washington is focused on COVID and responses to the crisis. The latest effort involves a supplement to the CARES Act. Of course, no effort is easy in DC. Today, Thursday 4-9-2020, Majority Leader McConnell failed to pass by unanimous consent an additional $250 billion for the SBA Paycheck Protection Program (PPP). In a statement earlier in the week McConnell indicated that he intended to pass an additional $250 billion for the SBA Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) sometime this week. The Trump Administration supported this effort and sent a letter officially requesting additional funding for the PPP. In response, Speaker Pelosi and Minority Leader Schumer issued a joint statement which called for—beyond additional PPP funding—additional money for hospitals, state and local governments, and an increase in SNAP. Senate Democrats also offered a proposal based on their response which failed to pass by unanimous consent which would have provided in the bill:

After failing to reach agreement, the Senate adjourned until April 13. More time will allow all involved to negotiate a path forward. Republicans have generally pushed for more funding for the small business program, while Democrats have advocated expanding the effort to include additional emergency measures. In addition to the funding provided in their proposal today, Democrats have interest in working on a proposal that would include $150 billion aimed at addressing those that are underbanked and for removing barriers to voting.

On the agriculture specific front, USDA is in the process of collecting proposals and ideas from all sectors in order to allocate the $9.5 B provided in the CARES Act along with an additional $6 B in CCC funding. Altogether agriculture could receive $15.5B in assistance to offset the effects of COVID. Reports indicate that Secretary Perdue wants to make an announcement soon about the payments. 

According to the Texas Rice Crop Survey, as of April 3, 2020, about 75% of the Texas rice crop is planted and about 50% of the planted crop has emerged. Reports from the field indicate the crop is off to a good start. It has been relatively dry this spring, so many farmers were able to plant early this year. For instance, in 2019, only about 40% of the crop was planted by the 1 ^st week of April.

I know we are all concerned about COVID-19, as well we should, but our rice farmers continue to work full and overtime to produce a staple, nutritious food for the US and the world. Our farmers are unsung heroes in the fight against this pandemic!

I just wanted to say a few words about the 38 ^th Rice Technical Working Group (RTWG) which was hosted by our Mississippi colleagues in Orange, AL February 24-27, 2020. Dr. Jason Bond served as Secretary and Program Chair. Jason reported there were 280 registrants, 225 scientific presentations and 4 student contests. By all measures, this was a very successful meeting! The RTWG is the premiere rice conference for US rice scientists and is held every other year in a rotation with rice-producing states…Arkansas, Louisiana, Texas, California and Mississippi. So, the next RTWG will be held in 2022 in Arkansas. If you want more information about the RTWG, contact me at [email protected] or 409-239-4265.

Perdido Beach Resort, Orange Beach, AL where the 38 ^th RTWG was held.