Volume 18, Issue 02
January 14, 2021
In This Issue:
  • Market Update: Rice Prices... Calm Before the Storm?
  • USRPA and ARROZGUA Lead in Rice Promotions in Guatemala
  • Nation’s Leading Ag Educational Conferences Will Be Going Virtual On February 10, 2021
Market Update: Rice Prices...Calm Before the Storm?
The spot market throughout much of the delta remains quiet. While rice continues to lightly trade, the market is lacking any significant developments that would cause prices to come off their month-long pricing. In conducting this week’s surveys, there appears to be minimal to no change in spot pricing from the early December trades. The cash market is expected to strengthen in the weeks ahead as the fundamentals reported in the most recent WASDE report work their way into the industry, which is already being seen in the futures market.

This week the USDA published their January World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report which was generally accompanied by a more bullish undertone for grains across the board. These revisions quickly worked their way thru the futures markets where beans, corn, wheat and rice all posted respectable gains following the report’s release. The USDA elevated its production figure for long-grain rice, which was more than offset by a considerable uptick in domestic demand expectations. The latest demand forecast calls for a record 125 million cwts of domestic use, up from the historical average of roughly 108 million cwts. According to the USDA, this revision is the result of higher use during August and September as implied by the NASS Rice Stocks report. Ultimately this change pushed ending stocks down to 26.3 million cwts from the 38.2 million cwt projection a month earlier. Now the current ending stocks projection falls in line with the 10-year average. The USDA also bumped the season-average farm price for long grain by $0.20 per cwt. As for US medium and short-grain, the changes made to the balance sheet were unremarkable.

The USDA also published their Crop Production Annual Summary report which shows the final acreage figures for all rice in the USA. Last year’s bull market certainly bought more rice acreage, as the official data indicates long grain harvested acres were up 572,000 acres or 33% from 2019/20. Although Southern medium grain acreage was off by 72,000 acres in 2020, a strong Calrose market motivated growers to increase plantings which was reflected in the 2.6% year over year increase for the state. 

Perhaps more noticeable than the increase in planted area were the yields. While yields in Arkansas, the nation’s largest rice growing state held steady year over year, the rest of the Delta benefited from cooperating weather and other factors that ultimately drove up yields basically across the board. As a result, total production was over 36% in 2020.

Looking to Asia, prices appear to have found a footing as all origins are up from 4-weeks ago. Pakistan export prices saw the sharpest increase, up $50 per ton from the prior month, while the appreciation in the other Asian origins was closer to $20-30 per ton for the same time period.  At present, one of the more critical factors in terms of global trade pertains to container availability and costs. For the past 6-8 weeks, exporters around the world have struggled to find equipment and capacity to ship bulk goods. Due to this bottlenecking, shipping and logistic prices have spiked to 52-week highs, making trade especially difficult in certain regions.  

According to the International Grain Council (IGC), which publishes a price index for soybeans, corn, wheat, barley and rice, prices are up 10.3% from a month earlier, and 37.9% from a year earlier. The commodities posting the largest gains are soybeans up 10.9% and corn up 13.4% this month.
As expected, these fundamentals are now being reflected in Chicago, where futures prices continue their march upward. Most analysts have published various comments surrounding the bullish undertone taking shape in the market. With planting right around the corner, significant price action at the futures level could certainly have a large impact in what gets planted this spring. Typically, when a price hike is accompanied by rising volume and open interest, the market is considered strong, which is exactly what we see happening in the market right now. Between a new administration entering the office, ongoing currency volatility, shipping & logistic constraints, and projected plantings, there are multiple variables coming to bear on the market over the next several weeks that could perpetuate the market strength or reduce it; for these reasons, it’s important to maintain market liquidity in order to reduce price risk.  
Rice Outlook
Nathan W. Childs, Coordinator
U.S. Rice 2020/21 Crop Estimate Raised to 227.6 Million Hundredweight
Record Levels of Infections and Deaths Return to Rural Counties
January 13, 2021
Gaps in reporting over the holidays created a false impression about the virulence of the pandemic in rural America.
USRPA and ARROZGUA Lead Rice Promotions in Guatemala
USRPA and ARROZGUA's team of chef promoters kicked off 2021 right by sharing their expertise with local importers of American rice. Essentially, our chefs are providing training to the sales and promotions teams of companies who import U.S. long-grain rice on how to prepare live demonstrations, cook long grain rice and keep the audience engaged while providing information on the benefits of consuming U.S. long-grain rice. These private company teams will continue to spread the message that U.S. long-grain rice is not only tasty but easy to prepare, economical, and nutritious, allowing the message to spread farther and faster in supermarkets throughout the country.

The first training took place on January 13, 2021, at ARROZGUA's facilities with Agroindustrias Albay, the country's second-largest importer of U.S. long-grain rice. Overall, Guatemala is expected to import 95,000 MT of paddy rice. USRPA and Arrozgua look forward to this collaboration to promote U.S. long-grain rice in Guatemala and will continue to schedule training in the weeks to come.

Nation’s Leading Ag Educational Conferences Will Be Going Virtual On February 10, 2021

The 24th Annual Conservation Systems Cotton & Rice Conference, the Southern Corn & Soybean Conference, the Southern Precision Ag Conference and the Delta States Irrigation Conference will be going virtual on February 10, 2021.

After visiting with the Sponsors and numerous Delta States University personal, the steering committee has made the decision to prepare for and create Virtual Conferences instead of live conferences, which were originally scheduled for January 10-12, 2021 at the Embassy Suites Conference Center in Jonesboro, Arkansas.

Presently the Arkansas Secretary of Health has a restriction on the Embassy Suite Conference Center in Jonesboro, Arkansas, where they can only operate at 66 percent capacity. The University of Arkansas and most other Delta States Universities have a restriction on personal, where they are only able to attend meetings of 50 people or less. This situation is unlikely to change in the near future.

The Virtual Conferences will be available to the public free of charge on the 10th of February 2021. There will be approx. 110 speaker presentations and over 50 CEU’s (all disciplines) will be available for Certified Crop Advisors. 
Sponsored by Cotton   Incorporated, US Rice Producers Association, and a production of MidAmerica Farm Publications. Academic Partners are: University of Arkansas, Mississippi State University, University of Missouri, University of Tennessee, LSU AgCenter, Auburn University and Texas A&M. Technical Partners are USDA-ARS centers in Oxford, MS, Stoneville, MS and Auburn, AL. 
Plans are being made to hold the 25th Annual Conservation Systems Conferences at the Embassy Suites Conference Center, Jonesboro, Arkansas in 2022.
USDA, USTR Name New Agricultural Trade Advisors
Washington, D.C., July 17, 2020 – U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer today announced the appointment of 25 new members to serve on seven agricultural trade advisory committees.

The Agricultural Policy Advisory Committee is comprised of senior representatives from across the U.S. agricultural community who provide advice to the U.S. Department of Agriculture and the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative on trade policy matters including the operation of existing trade agreements and the negotiation of new agreements. Members of the six Agricultural Technical Advisory Committees (ATACs) provide technical advice and guidance from the perspective of their specific product sectors.

The newly appointed advisors will serve until 2024. Each committee will be supplemented by additional appointments over the next four years. Applications are encouraged at any time. A complete list of committee members and application information is available at www.fas.usda.gov/topics/trade-advisory-committees.
Upcoming Events
January 20, 2021
Virtual Western Rice Belt Production Conference

February 10, 2021
Virtual NCS Cotton & Rice Conference

February 18-19, 2021
97th Agricultural Outlook Forum!

February 23, 2021
MRRMC Annual Meeting in Dexter, Missouri
Details Coming Soon
8:00 AM – 2:00 PM CST

REGISTRATION IS FREE. All attendees are required to register through EventBrite. Registration will not be held on the day of the event.
Food and Agriculture
Regulatory and Policy Roundup 

World Agricultural Production
Monthly report on crop acreage, yield and production in major countries worldwide.
Grain: World Markets and Trade
This monthly report includes data on U.S. and global trade, production, consumption and stocks, as well as analysis of developments affecting world trade in grains.

25722 Kingsland Blvd.
Suite 203
Katy, TX 77494
p. (713) 974-7423
f. (713) 974-7696
e. info@usriceproducers.com
We Value Your Input!

Send us updates, photos, questions or comments!