Visual 1st Perspectives


April 9, 2025

The Silent Collapse: Generative AI’s Erosion of Photo Licensing Revenue

Intro


Is the GenAI glass half full or half empty for photo or video solution providers? It depends on who you’re looking at. Many of the news items reported here, as well as the discussions at our Visual 1st conference, lean towards the half full view, emphasizing the significant opportunities that this transformative technology – much like smartphone photography did when Visual 1st began as "Mobile Photo Connect" – offers to innovation-focused players in our industry.


However, it's crucial to also acknowledge the counterpoint, particularly for established players whose fundamental value propositions are facing considerable pressure. The stock photography market, in particular, is facing substantial disruption triggered by the GenAI revolution, as our partner Paul Melcher, publisher of Kaptur, describes in his insightful analysis on the potential ramifications of GenAI for the photo licensing industry.


Here you go!


Hans Hartman



A Market on the Brink

The proliferation of generative AI has ushered in a transformative era in visual content creation. Capable of producing photorealistic images from text prompts in seconds, tools like MidjourneyDALL·E, and Adobe Firefly are reshaping how businesses and individuals source images. By August 2024, 39.5% of U.S. adults aged 18 to 64 had used generative AI, a rate of adoption that surpassed that of personal computers and the internet during their early years. Particularly in marketing, where demand for fast, customized visuals is high, 39% of marketers use AI to create social media visuals, and 36% to generate website imagery. The accessibility and sophistication of these tools are rapidly eating into the traditional domain of stock photography.


Traditional vs. Generative

The global stock photography market was valued at $4.65 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to $6.97 billion by 2030. In parallel, the AI image generator market is on an exponential growth trajectory: from $300 million in 2023, it is projected to reach anywhere between $917 million and $60.8 billion by 2030, with compound annual growth rates ranging from 17.4% to 38.2%. While the stock image market grows steadily, AI image generation is accelerating at a vastly higher rate, signaling a disruptive force that could overtake significant portions of traditional licensing.

Conference:

Oct. 28 (PM) – 29 (AM + PM)


Pre-conference networking:

Oct. 16 (AM)

Dead Pixels Society Meetup

Women in Imaging Luncheon


Where: KQED, San Francisco


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Fireside Chats to date:


Jim Louderback, Editor and CEO, Inside the Creator Economy


Tom Hughes, CEO, RPI Print



Panel Topics to date:


The photo + video convergence: It’s finally happening? From photo-to-video, to video-to-photo, to AR that merges both.


Photo print innovation: The next big things in products, apps, production, and partnerships


Agentic AI:  From groundbreaking user apps to workflow optimizers and beyond, is it the next tech game-changer for the photo & video industry?

The Photo Agency Revenue Question

Major players like Shutterstock and Getty Images offer a window into this disruption. Shutterstock reported full-year 2024 revenues of $935.3 million (up 7%), partly driven by the acquisition of Envato and $104 million in AI content licensing revenue—a figure projected to rise to $250 million by 2027. Meanwhile, Getty Images’ Creative revenue declined by 4.5% in 2024 despite overall corporate growth. This decline in core stock licensing, offset by growth in editorial and AI-related services, suggests an internal shift rather than expansion.


While neither agency explicitly attributes losses to AI competition, their financial pivots and public emphasis on AI development imply a strategic redirection in response to emerging threats.

Stock Photography vs. Generative AI project market size. Is this even a competition?


[Added by Hans Hartman: Will any dataset licensing revenues derived from AI tech juggernauts offset the threat that GenAI tech poses to the world's largest stock photo agencies? That's not what Wall Street thinks, based on how these companies' stock prices have trended in the last 12 months:]

Adjacent Markets Already Losing

Illustrators and creatives in adjacent fields are already facing measurable displacement. According to the Society of Authors26% of illustrators lost work due to AI by early 2024, and 37% reported reduced income. A separate survey (Book An Artist) found that 54.6% of visual artists feared income loss from AI. In audiovisual production, a global study estimated a 21% revenue risk by 2028. While photography-specific figures are scarce, the parallels suggest traditional visual content creators face similar pressures.


Perceived & Projected Losses

Using conservative modeling, if generative AI displaces just 5% to 15% of demand for stock images, that represents $232 million to $698 million in potential annual loss globally. With photo agencies estimated to command 40–60% of the market, their share of the loss would range from $93 million to $418 million per year. These figures are not yet publicly acknowledged by agencies, but they emerge as logical extrapolations from adjacent industry signals and declining trends in creative revenue segments.

Stock photography agencies, like DepositPhoto, now offer their own version of AI-generated images , along with its more traditional stock photo offering.


Pricing Pressure and Margin Erosion

Even where revenue remains stable, profit margins are under pressure. AI-generated imagery offers unique advantages: instant production, total customization, and guaranteed originality—addressing long-standing client concerns about stock images being overused. Anecdotes from industry professionals confirm the shift: one French photographer reported losing a €15,000 campaign to an agency offering an entirely AI-generated visual campaign.


Industry Voices & Panic Signs

Industry sentiment is increasingly uneasy. Terms like “death spiral” and “panic” have surfaced on forums and among commentators. AI-focused platforms predict stock images will be the first creative assets replaced en masse. While agencies maintain a public front of resilience, their strategic investment in AI integration and data licensing suggests anticipation of further erosion.


Correlation Not Yet Causation?

Shutterstock’s Q3 2024 earnings call noted no “material displacement” of traditional licensing by AI—yet. But this could reflect a lag in financial reporting or a reluctance to disclose weakening licensing demand. Growth in AI revenue and data licensing may be masking stagnation or decline in core licensing revenue.


The Legal Shadow

Compounding the challenge is the uncertain legal status of AI-generated content and its training sources. Agencies with large content libraries, like Shutterstock and Getty, are exploring AI licensing as a new revenue stream. This includes licensing vast archives of images, videos, and metadata to companies developing foundation models, often for training generative AI systems. For instance, Shutterstock reported $104 million in AI-related revenue in 2023 alone and projects $250 million by 2027, stemming primarily from licensing content to major tech companies like OpenAI and Meta. Getty has also signed licensing agreements, positioning itself as a source of legally safe, high-quality datasets. These partnerships offer agencies a short-term revenue boost and a foothold in the AI economy, even as they risk cannibalizing traditional licensing streams. Legal clarity will be pivotal in defining long-term revenue models.


Disruption with a Dollar Value

The traditional photo agency model is undergoing fundamental change. While publicly disclosed figures do not yet quantify the loss directly attributed to generative AI, surrounding data paint a clear picture: generative tools are displacing demand, pressuring margins, and rerouting revenue. For an industry that once defined the visual language of media, marketing, and publishing, this disruption is not speculative—it is already underway, and it’s measurable in millions.


Author: Paul Melcher

Paul Melcher is a highly influential and visionary leader in visual tech, with 20+ years of experience in licensing, tech innovation, and entrepreneurship. He is the Managing Director of MelcherSystem and has held executive roles at Corbis, Gamma Press, Stipple, and more. Melcher received a Digital Media Licensing Association Award and has been named among the “100 most influential individuals in American photography”

And a few more things ...

Tariffs, tariffs, tariffs

It’s on everybody’s mind – and our photo & video industry is no exception: How will the US tariff measures (and those of responding countries) impact us all?

While the ink is far from dry and things are still changing on a daily basis, here are a few initial observations:


So far, the US import tariffs appear to apply solely to physical goods, not software or SaaS solutions (however, note that digital goods are not immune to other restrictive measures in an escalated tariff war). The most obvious physical photo or video products are cameras, smartphones, and photo print products.


Nearly all digital cameras are imported and face additional tariffs, as they’re primarily being imported from Japan (Canon, Sony, Nikon, Fujifilm, Panasonic, OM System/Olympus), Germany (Leica), China (DJI, Insta360) and Sweden (Hasselblad).

But even a US-headquartered camera vendor like GoPro manufactures its cameras abroad (Mexico and China) and also faces to tariff surges.


Smartphones are primarily produced in high-tariff regions, or carry components from these areas. For instance, iPhones are assembled mainly in China, India and Vietnam. And Apple’s valuation immediately dropped $450 billion after the tariff announcements last week.


While it’s much too early to speculate how eventually our market (consumers, vendors) will adapt, here are two initial questions to consider:

  • Will the camera rental or pre-owned camera markets make a further comeback?
  • Will camera and/or smartphone vendors start charging (more) for firmware updates if the demand for new – higher priced – cameras were to significantly drop?


For photo print product manufacturers there will be further incentives to manufacture print products close to their buyers rather than shipping them across the world – an acceleration of a trend that started long before the current tariffs bonanza. Print product manufacturers increasingly acknowledge the benefits of local print production: lower shipping costs, faster turnaround, and lower CO2 transport emissions. So, who could benefit in particular?

  • Large photo print manufacturers that have production facilities in multiple countries?
  • Global print-on-demand networks that route jobs to local printers?
  • Smaller local photo print manufacturers in high-tariff countries (such as the US), that leverage these networks?


Printess. Launching “text-to-design” tool for web-to-print. Print on demand software developer Printess announces Printess-Make, a “Text-to-Design” tool, which helps users to easily create fully editable, print-ready designs. Users can describe their business, services, or any key details, and Printess-Make will then generate an array of ready-to-print designs. Each design is fully editable, allowing for as much (or as little) customization as desired.


WhiteWall. Upscaling and sharpening. High-end wall decor producer, WhiteWall launched SuperResolution upscaling and ultraHD sharpening features for all its photo print products, with the exception of its Coffee Table Book.


Amazon Photos. Shopping for memory. It’s Amazon Photos' new slogan, but what the heck does it mean? Amazon lets you use natural language to find the photos you're looking for among your collection stored on Amazon Photos. Nice, right? But wait, there’s more. Get your wallet out! Spot something in your photos that you loved at the Joneses house or a toy your kid was obsessed with? Yah! Amazon identifies the objects in your photos and shows a lens icon so you could buy these types of product on Amazon with just a click or two.


OpenAI. Yah, a new image styler – a highly viral one, that is. Unless you have lived under a rock last week, you’ve seen or created cool “artistic” treatments of selfies with OpenAI’s new AI image generator, which turns photos into “art,” styled after the likes of Studio Ghibli, The Simpsons or the Muppets. OpenAI’s ImageGen feature went viral last week, so much so that OpenAi had to temporarily delay the launch for free users and was forced to impose rate limits even on paid users because "our GPUs are melting," as the company stated.


At this point it’s too early to tell whether the interest in tweaking one’s photos with these art styles will stick or evaporate as fast as it started. It’s also too early to tell whether legal or ethical objections against OpenAI’s mimicking of art without compensating the original artists will prevail.


And then, another interesting factoid to monitor as to whether it will stick: so far, OpenAI’s new features don’t appear to hurt existing AI-based image generating art apps, in fact it has been the opposite for AI cartooning apps, who have seen their downloads surge since ImageGen launched.


Midjourney. Yah, finally a new image model. Midjourney introduces first new GenAI image model in over a year, incidentally 😀 rolled out in alpha a week after OpenAI debuted its new image generator. Midjourney V7 promises much higher coherence and consistency for hands, fingers, body parts, and "objects of all kinds." It also offers more detailed and realistic textures and materials, like skin wrinkles or the subtleties of a ceramic pot. Midjourney also introduces a Draft Mode that generates images at half the cost and renders images at 10x the speed, according to the company.


Runway. Yah, a new AI video model that can create consistent scenes and people. Consistent storytelling in AI-generated videos is notoriously difficult and AI video pioneer Runway until now has had a hard time generating consistent scenes and people across multiple shots. Its new Gen-4 video synthesis model is said to empower users to generate consistent characters, locations, and objects across scenes, maintain “coherent world environments,” and regenerate elements from different perspectives and positions within scenes.


TIPA. 2025 TIPA Award winners selected. Along with fellow delegates from TIPA member magazines and online publications – spanning professional, amateur, and business sectors in Asia, Australia, Europe, and North America – I had the honor of attending TIPA’s annual General Assembly meeting in Istanbul recently to vote on this year’s TIPA Award winners. Stay tuned for the April 17 announcement of the winners in various categories: cameras, lenses, printers, imaging software, storage solutions, print-on-demand services, accessories, tools for content creators, lighting equipment, and more.


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Call for speakers: early innovators using AI agents! At Visual 1st this year, we’ll have a panel called, Agentic AI: From groundbreaking user apps to workflow optimizers and beyond, is it the next tech game-changer for the photo & video industry? If you are developing innovative workflow or other solutions for your photo or video products that are based on AI agents, I’d love to hear what you’re up to, and to see if you could possibly speak in this panel on Oct. 28 or 29 at Visual 1st – drop me a note!  

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Best,


Hans Hartman

Join us Oct. 28-29 in San Francisco for our 13th annual edition of Visual 1st !



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