The Group of Twenty (G20) economies continue their recoveries from the pandemic, but the unprecedented shock could still leave long-lasting scars that reduce economic prospects compared with their pre-crisis trends. Pandemic-induced losses for both economic output and employment will be significant in the coming years, as discussed in our April World Economic Outlook. Emerging market economies are likely to endure greater losses because they had relatively less access to vaccines and their pandemic-support packages were smaller. For many economies, the outbreak of the war in Ukraine is adding to the challenges. Read more in the linked International Monetary Fund (IMF) blog.

Most countries in both the rich and the developing world have some sort of programme to help early career farmers (mostly, but not exclusively young people) to get established in a farming or agribusiness enterprise. South Africa sticks out like a sore thumb, even against many African countries, in not having such a programme. In an article, first published on The Conversation, Prof. Nick Vink, professor of agricultural economics, Stellenbosch University, and Prof. Johann Kirsten,

director of the Bureau for Economic Research, Stellenbosch University, write that in their view, subsidies for black farmers in South Africa are justified. This is because they would help deliver a more inclusive agricultural sector and correct past racial biases. Please click here to peruse.

Agbiz CEO Theo Boshoff participated in three discussions at Nampo Harvest Day during the past week. In a Nation in Conversation session sponsored by Engen that focused on the impact of the crisis in Ukraine on the South African fuel and lubricants sector, Boshoff discussed the role of liquid fuels in the agricultural value chain. Please click here to view this discussion. In another session with the theme 'Let’s fix it: the regeneration of rural communities, he shed some light on Agbiz's renewed focus to assist its members to contribute to the rejuvenation of the rural communities. You can access the recording of this panel discussion here. In the third session, Chantel Arendse of Croplife SA discussed the recent appeal lodged against the decision to classify new breeding techniques under the Genetically Modified Organisms Act. A consolidated clip for the whole day on Agri Xtra is available here. The discussion with Boshoff starts at 5:51.00.

The Agricultural and Agro-processing Master Plan was signed at a ceremony in Cape Town on 12 May, after a two-year-long consultation process in which Agbiz fully participated. The Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy (BFAP) and the National Agricultural Marketing Council (NAMC) drafted the initial concept document that was used as a basis for the engagements between social partners that followed. Last-minute objections around issuing of title deeds, water rights, financing and targets for black farmer participation in the value chain were raised by social partners. Some of the issues were finally resolved whilst some parties chose not to sign the document. Further engagements around the implementation of the master plan will now follow. Minister Thoko Didiza stated that the AAMP was intended to ensure clarity on a long-term view of where the industry wants to go, and to deal with issues facing the industry. Read more in the linked article by Agbiz head of Legal Intelligence Annelize Crosby.

Last week saw the Department of Agriculture, Land Reform and Rural Development's budget vote speech presented in Parliament and the signing off of the Agriculture and Agro-processing Master Plan. Both are key for the medium and long-term growth of the sector. As is typically the case, the budget vote speech for 2022/23 contained a round figure of R17.3 billion for the department. This figure includes an allocation for the provincial departments of agriculture and agricultural entities such as the Agricultural Research Council and the National Agricultural Marketing Council. Notably, the budget vote speech also gives the sector insight into the department's policy focus, which are areas that will likely utilize a sizable portion of the allocation. Agbiz chief economist Wandile Sihlobo discusses this subject in the linked article.

Land reform in South Africa is an emotive and politically fraught subject. That’s because land was at the heart of the dispossession of Africans by colonial settlers. Successful land reform can help overcome this legacy, making it central to forging shared national bonds. It can also serve as a basis for a cohesive society through a properly managed redistribution programme. But nearly three decades since the first democratic elections in 1994, South Africa has yet to crack land reform. That’s not for a lack of initiatives. Some communities and individuals have indeed had their land restored. But for every one of these stories, there’s another of a “failed” farming project or a small farmer stuck in a remote area without hope of gaining a livelihood. Opinions vary on what has gone wrong with land reform and what should be done about it. Read more in the linked article by Agbiz chief economist Wandile Sihlobo, written for and first published on The Conversation.

This is a busy week in South Africa's agricultural calendar with many stakeholders attending Nampo, the first time in two years that the event is hosted in person. But the high-frequency economic data hasn't stopped; hence, we are sending out a short note on South Africa's consumer food price inflation this morning. The data released by Statistics South Africa this morning showed that the country's consumer food price inflation decelerated to 6,3% y/y in April 2022 from 6,6% y/y in the previous month. This is on the back of relatively softer price increases in meat; milk, eggs and cheese; and vegetables. These data are roughly within our expectations, and the food products price variation will likely persist in the coming months. In other words, fruit; vegetables; milk, eggs and cheese and to a lesser extent, meat, could see softer price increases in the coming months. Wandile Sihlobo discusses the latest data in the linked article.

Agbiz Grain Quarterly keeps every role player abreast of new developments in the grain-handling and storage industry in South Africa. In the May edition, we examine the effect and impact of grain theft on the industry, insects commonly found in grains, oilseeds, legume seeds and their products, as well as the Agbiz Congress 2022.

 Also in this May 2022 issue:

 To download the current PDF version of Agbiz Grain Quarterly, click here. To download the digimag, click here.

South African citrus exporters are closely watching the possible endorsement this week on 19 or 20 May of a draft amendment of a European Union (EU) Implementing Regulation 2019/2072 regarding the import requirements of Thaumatotibia leucotreta (false codling moth, or FCM) on citrus from third countries, South Africa being one of them. This draft is currently still before the European Commission’s Standing Committee on Plants, Animals, Food and Feed (SCoPAFF), Plant Health Section. This issue is that the draft amendment includes a mandatory requirement that all oranges from third countries in Africa and Israel be subjected to cold treatment for a minimum of 16 days at a temperature between 0 and -1 degrees C. Agbiz Fruit manager Wolfe Braude discusses this topic in the linked article.

The efficiency of a port directly affects the economies of the countries it serves, since more than 80% of global trade is carried by sea. The percentage is even higher for many developing countries. The Covid-19 pandemic has been a stark reminder that when ports slow down, everyone suffers. Lockdown measures caused disruptions and delays in many ports around the globe. The median time container ships spent in ports worldwide, for example, increased by 20% between 2019 and 2021. During the pandemic, freight rates reached record highs and have again soared in the wake of the war in Ukraine due to logistics disruptions and port congestion. A United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) analysis has shown how surges in freight rates can raise the prices of goods, especially in the least developed countries and small island developing states. Read more in the linked UNCTAD article.

In the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic and its devastating socio-economic impact across Africa, the crisis in Ukraine threatens to place an inordinate burden on African households — many of which were already struggling to put food on the table. Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa, anticipates critical short-term supply and pricing effects — a food crisis — unless the conflict is resolved expeditiously. Higher food prices mean that fewer African households will be able to afford a single decent daily meal. Malnourishment will rise. Africa’s food-insecure households will be left much further behind. Their consumption rates will fall, savings will be depleted, debt will increase, and assets will be liquidated. Read more in the linked article by Ahunna Eziakonwa Director, UNDP Regional Bureau for Africa and UN Assistant Secretary-General first published by the World Economic Forum.

International prices of coarse grains fell in April as maize harvests in Argentina and Brazil helped ease pressure on maize markets. By contrast, wheat prices edged upwards as global supply tightness persisted amidst the significantly reduced exports from Ukraine due to war-related impacts on export supply chains. For rice, strong Asian demand and weather setbacks in the Americas drove international prices up during April. Read more in the May issue of the FPMA Bulletin. The bulletin provides the latest food price developments at world, regional and national level. It focuses on countries where prices are abnormally high, based on GIEWS analysis and the Indicator of Food Price Anomalies (IFPA) for SDG target 2.

Food is one of the essential commodities that sustains life on Earth, making agriculture one of the most important industries in the world. Apart from providing security and health to the population, agriculture is an essential factor in economic growth, accounting for 4.3% of the global GDP. It is also an integral component of international trade, as much of the staple foods such as sugar, soybeans, and rice are produced and exported worldwide. But the growth of the agricultural sectors has been hitting many roadblocks in recent years, elevated by climate change, the Covid-19 pandemic, and now the Ukraine-Russia war. To shed some light on where our food comes from and which countries trade most of it, the University of Potomac researched the newest data on agricultural production. Please click here to read their findings.

A new dashboard on the impact of policy on low-carbon emitting technologies (LCETs) in seven jurisdictions was launched by the World Economic Forum. It includes the European Union, United States, China, Japan, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and the United Kingdom who are jointly responsible for about 50% of global greenhouse gas emissions. The policy dashboard was launched along with a forum white paper, Towards a Net-Zero Chemical Industry: A Global Policy Landscape for Low-Carbon Emitting Technologies. "A complex set of policies facilitating change across value chains, in various stakeholder behaviours and in decision making will be needed to enable the broad deployment of low-carbon emitting technologies,” said Jörgen Sandström, Head of Energy, Materials and Infrastructure Programme, World Economic Forum. Please click here to peruse.

Unemployment remains a huge problem in the South African economy, especially in our rural areas. At the same time, employers in certain rural areas are struggling to fill vacant positions within their organisations. This does not seem to make sense. The linked article by Thapelo Machaba, agricultural economist and policy analyst at Agbiz, explores some of the possible reasons for this perceived inconsistency.

A steep upper-air trough system will develop into a cut-off low-pressure system over the north-western interior of the country by Friday, 20 May 2022. Widespread rainfall can be expected over the southern and central parts of the country from Thursday onwards, with light snowfalls likely over the mountainous, high-lying areas of the Western and Eastern Cape, spreading to the Lesotho Drakensberg regions by the weekend, where heavier falls are anticipated. Light snowfalls can also be expected over the high-lying ground of the south-eastern and eastern Free State. 24-hour rainfall accumulations of 25 to 35 mm can also be expected over the drought-stricken parts of the Eastern Cape. Moreover, there is also the possibility of isolated severe storms, accompanied by strong winds and large amounts of small hail over the central and eastern interior, however, the South African Weather Service (SAWS) will issue detailed radar-based warnings in this regard, should the need arise. Read more in the linked South African Weather Service media statement.

Since the update report of 30 April 2022, 15 additional cases of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) have been identified on communal grazing land in KwaZulu-Natal through ongoing active and passive surveillance efforts. The new cases located within the new KwaZulu-Natal disease management area (KZN DMA) are as follows: eight in KwaDukuza district, two in Nkandla district and three in uMlalazi district. Two new cases fall outside of the new KZN DMA in the Ethekwini district. The positive locations outside of the DMA have been placed under quarantine with associated movement restrictions. The full report can be accessed here.

With a new sense of purpose the Maputo Port Development Company started cooperation in 2020 with a newly-created company called the Maputo Port Fruit Terminal to unlock the Maputo corridor for citrus exports,” says Dawie Scholtz, general manager of the Maputo Port Fruit Terminal (MPFT). “Currently there are no cooling facilities in the harbour, but a very good warehouse on the quayside was leased to Maputo Port Fruit Terminal.” Given previous false starts, major uncertainties had to be overcome: shipping lines were unsure whether producers would send cargo to Maputo, while producers didn’t know whether shipping lines would add Maputo to their schedule. Added to that was great scepticism regarding the efficiency of the Komatipoort/Ressano Garcia border post which is only 100km from the port. Read more in the linked article, first published on FreshPlaza.

Hortgro recently announced the appointment of Unati Speirs as a new board director. She will be taking over the vacancy left by Dr Mono Mashaba who served the industry for many years. Speirs holds an MSc in agriculture and is currently a PhD candidate. She has worked in agriculture since 2009 when she started as head of agriculture at the East London Industrial Development Zone. Since then, she has gained extensive experience in senior management in the agriculture sector in South Africa and abroad, where she worked in the US, Japan, and with the United Nations and European Union in Italy. Speirs is currently a ministerial trustee for the Red Meat Industry Trust of South Africa and a board member of AllJoy Foods. Formerly, she was a Vice-Chairperson for the International Sugar Organisation based in London and a former chairperson of the UN Environment Programme’s Sustainable Agri-Food Production. Read more in the linked Hortgro media statement.

The Citrus Growers' Association of Southern Africa, shares the latest news in the citrus industry in its weekly update - From the desk of the CEO. Please click here to peruse.

We are very excited to announce that the Agbiz Congress 2022 will take place from 22 to 24 June 2022 at Sun City. Our congress marks the gathering of more than 400 stakeholders in the Southern African agricultural and agri-food industry. As in the past, we are planning to bring together CEOs, senior management and board members, as well as key delegates from government, producer organisations, processors, academia and various other major role players for the Agbiz Congress 2022.

With the continued support from our sponsors, we will bring you a cutting-edge congress with world-class speakers. With the renewed possibility of hosting a face-to-face congress, we can assure you that the Agbiz Congress 2022 will be bigger and better than before and promises to be an event not to be missed.

Delegates can now register for the Agbiz Congress 2022. In line with government regulations, delegates will be required to be fully vaccinated or submit a negative PCR test 72 hours before the event. If you have already registered, our organisers will be in contact with you to verify your vaccination status. If you haven’t registered yet, please don’t hesitate to sign up as soon as possible. Please click here for more information.