The conflict in Ukraine and recent pandemic-related lockdowns in China appear to be dampening global goods trade in the first half of 2022, according to the latest WTO Goods Trade Barometer. The current reading of 99.0 remains slightly below the baseline value of 100 for the index, which is a forward-looking composite of real-time indicators, suggesting continued slow growth in merchandise trade. The latest outlook scales back the earlier optimism in the barometer from February, which suggested that trade might have been approaching a turning point, with stronger growth expected in the near future, the barometer reveals. Read more in the May 2022 edition of the WTO Goods Trade Barometer.

The World Economic Forum’s Community of Chief Economists expects lower economic activity, higher inflation, lower real wages and greater food insecurity globally in 2022, pointing to the devastating human consequences of the fragmentation of the global economy. Reversing previous expectations for recovery, the majority of respondents to the latest survey expect only a moderate economic outlook in the United States, China, Latin America, South Asia and Pacific, East Asia, sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East and North Africa in 2022. In Europe, the majority expect the economic outlook to be weak. The choices of both business and government are expected to lead to greater fragmentation in the global economy and unprecedented shifts in supply chains, creating a perfect storm of volatility and uncertainty. These patterns are expected to create further difficult trade-offs and choices for policymakers, and – without greater coordination – shocking human costs. These are the key findings of the World Economic Forum’s quarterly Chief Economists Outlook. Please click here to peruse.

Few things rekindle the spirit of optimism more than seeing a vibrant gathering of industry stakeholders showcasing new technologies and product solutions to boost the productivity and growth of a sector. This is precisely the feeling one gets when you arrive at Nampo Park in Bothaville, a small agricultural town in the Free State. Nampo is an agricultural trade show where stakeholders from technology developers to startups, agricultural financiers, biotechnology companies, insurance companies, agricultural retailers and others gather to showcase new developments in their industries and informally interact with clients and potential partners. Agbiz chief economist Wandile Sihlobo reflects on his observations of the Nampo Harvest Day that was hosted by Grain SA last week in the linked article, written for and first published on Business Day. Please click here to read a Grain SA media statement following last week's event.

A ban on agricultural exports is never desirable, especially by a major player in agricultural markets. Unfortunately, such practices have been common since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, and more recently the Russia-Ukraine war. We have seen this through the temporary curbs on wheat and rice exports as global prices increased and countries attempted to protect domestic consumers. Recent cases were a ban on palm oil exports by Indonesia and India’s decision to curb wheat exports. After these policy decisions, we saw a surge in global vegetable oil and wheat prices, hurting developing nations the most. Agbiz chief economist Wandile Sihlobo discussed Indonesia's plans to resume palm oil exports and why South Africa needs to find ways to continue boosting vegetable oils production in a letter to Business Day. The letter can be accessed here.

Peter Bruce, veteran South African newspaper editor and commentator, discussed the newly-released Agriculture and Agro-processing Master Plan with Agbiz chief economist Wandile Sihlobo in an edition of Podcasts from the Edge. Please click here to listen to the interview.

The war in Ukraine and related sanctions have triggered a sharp increase in commodity prices, which will add to the challenges facing countries in the Middle East and North Africa—particularly the region’s oil importers. After leaping to a peak of $130 per barrel following Russia’s invasion, oil prices are expected to settle at an annual average of around $107 in 2022, up $38 from 2021, according to the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook. Similarly, food prices are expected to increase by an additional 14 per cent in 2022, after reaching historical highs in 2021. This surge in prices comes at a precarious time for the region’s recovery. In our Regional Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised up their forecast for growth in the Middle East and North Africa as a whole by 0.9 percentage points to 5 per cent, but this reflects improved prospects for oil exporters helped by rising oil and gas prices. Read more in the linked IMF blog post.

Recent surges in food and fuel costs are hurting households everywhere. The global spike in energy prices since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine underscores the need to transition away from dependence on energy sources that are subject to recurrent disruptions. The war has also impacted food security, which is already under pressure from crop failures and extreme weather events due to higher temperatures. These developments make clear the importance of accelerating a green transition that would limit further temperature rises, while protecting vulnerable groups who are most dependent on high-carbon fuels and jobs. Read more in the linked IMF blog post.

The BUSA Cargo Movement Update contains a consolidated overview of the South African supply chain and the current state of international trade. According to the latest update, port operations this past week at the Port of Cape Town went well, thanks to pleasant weather conditions. The repair to LC8 was postponed again, with port users expressing their frustrations. The Port of Durban is busy preparing for the capacity for high citrus volumes planned in the coming weeks. Limited cranes were among the most significant challenges experienced. Excessive rain was experienced the past weekend, slowing operations. Transnet advised that the plans are underway to relocate the manganese ore facility from Gqeberha to the Port of Ngqura in 2027. Lastly, a temporary solution was found in exporting rail cargo through the Container Corridor. On the international shipping side, container freight rates continue to subside; however, the other ongoing constraints of congestion, poor reliability, and a mismatch of supply and demand appear to continue. These issues are expected to be exacerbated as China's Covid policies mean that the global shipping powerhouse cannot break free from its operational constraints. Please click here to read the complete report.

The South African Revenue Service (SARS) asked taxpayers not to come into its offices amid a national strike. Public Servants' Association (PSA) and the National Education Health and Allied Workers' Union (Nehawu) started to strike on Wednesday morning, in a dispute over pay hikes.SARS said in a statement that the first day of the strike proceeded "orderly, without incident". Due to its wide range of online services, disruption to the operations was minimal. "[But] taxpayers are encouraged to avoid coming to a SARS office." SARS will continue to monitor developments at its offices over the coming days. Customs operations at ports of entry, especially borders, are operational and have been without major interruptions. SARS Customs said that it would rely on the support of the police and other government agencies at border posts to ensure that there were continued operations. The SARS strike impact on customs will be updated daily at 8:00, 12:00 and 17:00, you can keep an eye on the Customs and Excise landing page.

The movement protocol and permit system for the movement of cloven-hoofed animals remains in place in the KwaZulu-Natal and Limpopo disease management areas (DMA). A renewed call is made to all stakeholders to continue complying with the movement restrictions that are still in place, as these restrictions are necessary to prevent the escape of the virus out of the affected areas and, therefore, shorten the duration of the outbreak. Movement of cloven-hoofed animals and their products into, out of, through, or within the DMA is still only allowed on the authority of a permit issued by the veterinary services of the area. The movement protocol can be accessed here.

The South African Agricultural Economic Fact Sheet, issued by the United States Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural Service, has been updated to include the calendar year 2021. Bilateral agricultural trade between the United States and South Africa reached record levels of US$860 million in 2021. Major agricultural products traded between the two countries include poultry meat, animal feed, dairy products, tree nuts, planting seeds, fresh fruit, especially citrus, and wine. Please click here to peruse.

South Africa is set for record pome fruit and table grape production in the marketing year 2021/22. Favourable weather conditions, new areas under production, and higher-yielding cultivars are driving the growth in production. However, rising shipping costs, an upsurge in input costs, local port inefficiencies and the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on established trading patterns, are challenging South Africa’s exports of pome fruit and table grapes. As a result, the profitability of the industry is under pressure which could limit future investments. Read more in the Fresh Deciduous Fruit Semi-annual compiled by the United States Department of Agriculture. Please click here to peruse.

It was with great sadness that we've learnt about the passing of Melcus Nel, group executive director at the Signa Group. Melcus served on the AgriBEE Charter Council and his support and expertise were of immeasurable value. Agbiz CEO Theo Boshoff said: "Melcus was a very active and involved Agbiz Council member and his contributions to our work in the office was exceptional. It is very sad news for the Agbiz team and our thoughts are with his family, friends and colleagues."

Keeping it Fresh, the newsletter of the Fresh Produce Exporters Forum (FPEF) contains all the recent relevant news and developments. Please click here for the latest edition.

The Citrus Growers' Association of Southern Africa, shares the latest news in the citrus industry in its weekly update - From the desk of the CEO. Please click here to peruse.

We are very excited to announce that the Agbiz Congress 2022 will take place from 22 to 24 June 2022 at Sun City. Our congress marks the gathering of more than 400 stakeholders in the Southern African agricultural and agri-food industry. As in the past, we are planning to bring together CEOs, senior management and board members, as well as key delegates from government, producer organisations, processors, academia and various other major role players for the Agbiz Congress 2022.

With the continued support from our sponsors, we will bring you a cutting-edge congress with world-class speakers. With the renewed possibility of hosting a face-to-face congress, we can assure you that the Agbiz Congress 2022 will be bigger and better than before and promises to be an event not to be missed.

Delegates can now register for the Agbiz Congress 2022. In line with government regulations, delegates will be required to be fully vaccinated or submit a negative PCR test 72 hours before the event. If you have already registered, our organisers will be in contact with you to verify your vaccination status. If you haven’t registered yet, please don’t hesitate to sign up as soon as possible. Please click here for more information.