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The main trans-Pacific carriers have not informed us of any extra loaders for July. Only Wan Hai may continue its AA1 weekly extra loaders from China to the PSW.
From China, shippers are actively front-loading cargo to mitigate the uncertainty of the potential reintroduction of tariffs, despite the aggregate 55% figure announced by the US and Chinese negotiators. However, the surge in demand is not expected to last for long in China. The negotiations continue as the White House works towards securing trade agreements with China ahead of the deadline. Any successful trade agreements may lead to a de-escalation of tariffs, but the frontloading and early peak season suggest demand may decline in the late third quarter and into the fourth quarter.
Carriers still feel optimistic about the demand from Southeast Asia, as many of the shippers have plans to switch volume from China to other origins in the region, and we expect to see more and more products coming from those countries as manufacturing capacity comes online. It provides a detailed picture of how current trade policies are influencing the anticipated changes in volumes from each country. Many retailers who halted or reduced orders due to tariffs rising to 145% are now resuming imports from China following the reduction to 30%, plus the additional fentanyl-driven 25%. In the meantime, however, they continue diversifying their supply chains, seeking alternate suppliers in other countries.
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