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PDF | Research | Week of May 5 2025

Quote of the Week

“Mistakes fade away; winners forever blossom.”

–  Warren Buffett, chairman, Berkshire Hathaway.

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Letter from Down Under (Second of Two Parts)

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New: Private Capital Call Podcast


Episode 9: Bilal Hafeez, CEO at Macro Hive

“It's the uncertainty that kills the market rather than the actual policy itself.” - Bilal Hafeez

There’s a New Tariff in Town (First of Two Parts)

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This week we look at questions from clients and friends surrounding the issue of tariffs. Not surprisingly, as we’ve discovered in our recent travels, interest in the topic has accelerated (see our Chart of the Week). 


The origin of the word is obscure. By one account, it derives from the Arabic “ta‘rif,” meaning “notification” or “inventory.” Another reference identifies the port of Tarifa where ships in 10th century Moorish Spain were inspected and taxed as they passed the Strait of Gibraltar.


Whatever the derivation, the term, ironically, was an import to English usage, probably from the Italian (“tariffa”). In the early days of the United States, tariffs represented most of the government’s revenues. That changed after the federal income tax was instituted in 1913, and then again after the Great Depression. Today it’s a small fraction of prior levels...


Chart of the Week

What is a Tariff, Anyway?

Google searches for “tariff” hit a peak around Liberation Day but have trailed off since.

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Source: Google Trends

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Bloomberg: Leveraged Lending Insights

US Leveraged Loans Post Consecutive Monthly Losses

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  • Click here to access Bloomberg’s US Leveraged Loan Index Report


The Bloomberg US Leveraged Loan Index (Ticker: LOAN), a measure of the US institutional, broadly syndicated, leveraged loan market, continued its downward trend in April...


Contacts: Vincent Daigger, Jasvinder Singh/ Bloomberg

PDI Picks

Defaults stay subdued for now

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The latest Proskauer study suggests loans are demonstrating impressive resilience but there should be no room for complacency. 

Defaults may not provide a conclusive picture of the amount of stress in the private credit universe but they’re still one of the best – and most commonly referenced – measurements that we have...



Contact: Andy Thomson / Private Debt Investor

Leveraged Loan Insight & Analysis

Private credit offers issuers some certainty during uncertain times, although comes with a cost 

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No matter which market borrowers opted to tap, financing conditions seemed more than accommodating as we approached the second quarter...


Contact: Chris Piccirillo / LSEG

The Pulse of Private Equity

Private debt institutional, retail, and insurance AUM ($B)

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Since 2019, PitchBook has tracked 207 private market fund launches across these three vehicle types, all targeting the private wealth channel; the total net assets in these vehicles were $274.8 billion as of July 31, 2024...

Contact: Garrett Black / PitchBook

KBRA Direct Lending Deals: News & Analysis

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TTM Default Volume, Count

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Contact: Eric Rosenthal / KBRA DLD

Middle Market & Private Credit

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Slower Growth and Competitive Underwriting to Pressure Asset Quality for U.S. BDCs

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Learn More


U.S. business development companies (BDCs) are facing mounting pressure in 2025 as escalating trade tensions and broader economic uncertainty compound existing credit headwinds...


Contact: Brian Harris / FitchRatings

Covenant Trends 

Percentage of Loans with Asset Sale

Sweep Step-downs

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Contact: Steven Miller / Covenant Review

High-Yield Bond Statistics

Launched Volume

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New-issue Yields

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Weekly Fund Flows

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Weekly fund flows source: Lipper

Contact: Robert Polenberg / LevFin Insights

Debtwire Middle-Market

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The blue line in the chart is the current dividend yield of the *VanEck BDC Income ETF (currently at 11.5% as of 28 April, down from four-year peak of 12.8% on 8 April) that tracks the overall performance of publicly traded business development companies (BDCs, are lenders to privately held middle-market businesses that tend to be below investment grade or not rated, with most lending comprising of senior secured loans). The brown line displays the BofA Merrill Lynch US High Yield (currently at 7.6% as of 28 April, down from its latest one-year peak of 8.5% on 7 April), which tracks the performance of USD denominated below investment grade corporate debt publicly issued in the US...


Contacts: Suneet Chandvani/ Debtwire 

Middle Market Deal Terms at a Glance

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Contact: Stefan Shaffer / SPP Capital Partners

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This publication is a service to our clients and friends. It is designed only to give general information on the market developments actually covered. It is not intended to be a comprehensive summary of recent developments or to suggest parameters for any prospective financing opportunity.