House Seats to Flip: Our Recommendations

Election day is about ten weeks away. We are all excited about the Harris-Walz ticket and the terrific job they have done at the convention and in the early days of the campaign. Although we are doing better, the polls continue to show that the race for the White House and control of Congress will be tough and very close.

We Need To Win the House

Today, Republicans have 220 seats to the Democrats’ 211. There are four vacancies, three Democratic seats and one Republican. A partisan shift of only four seats will put Democrats in charge. This can be achieved by “flipping” seats where Republican incumbents are vulnerable and face strong Democrat challengers and by “holding” Democratic seats where incumbents are in tough reelection contests.

Beating Donald Trump in November is the top priority. But control of Congress is a close second. If Harris-Walz wins but we don’t control either House of Congress, it will be impossible to accomplish anything legislatively. If Trump should win, control of either or both houses of Congress will be a firewall to protect us from much of Trump’s craziness and dangerous and extreme, right-wing agenda described in “Project 2025”. Continued Democratic control of the Senate is possible but very challenging because we must win every winnable race, but we have a pretty good chance of wresting control of the House from Republicans.

Focusing on the Seats We Can Flip from R to D

Our recommendations today focus exclusively on the seats that could change parties from Republican to Democrat, the Flips. These races are critical because if we don’t flip some seats, we can’t take back the House. It’s usually harder to flip seats than to hold them. Also, challengers usually face more difficulty raising money than incumbents, often have expensive primaries, are less well known and don’t have the other advantages of incumbency. We will follow up soon with our recommendations for incumbents who face difficult races, the Holds, as the situation becomes clearer.

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How We Arrived At Our Recommendations

In making these recommendations, we have looked at a lot of data. Each of the 11 races is considered a toss-up by some or all the professional prognosticators. This is what we considered:

The conclusions of multiple political analysts that categorized the races as toss-up or very close
The Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index that rates the propensity of the district to vote D or R
How President Biden did in the last election in the district
The Republican incumbent’s margin of victory in the last election
The latest available information on the finances of each candidate and the views of other grassroots organizations on races to focus on (not including spending by PACs and outside groups)

Finally, these races are going to be hard fought, close and expensive. To be useful,

your contributions should be made as soon as possible.

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