Dear Friends,

 

As uncertainty continues to dominate the headlines, a powerful market reality is unfolding — one that we fear too many are missing entirely. We’ve been talking in our office about the possibility of a “Market Melt Up” on the heels of resolutions from the landscapes of macroeconomic, geopolitical, technical setups in the market and fundamental features of corporate entities.

 

According to the latest data from the Investment Company Institute, over $7 trillion sits in money market funds today. That includes $4.1 trillion from institutional investors and nearly $3 trillion from retail investors. All of it sitting out — not participating in this historic bull market.

 

Instead of growth, these dollars are chasing "safety." But let’s be honest: much of this is emotional, not strategic. The fear of volatility has kept billions sidelined while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 have recently broken to new all-time highs.

Sources: All Star Charts and TrendLabs

 

Meanwhile, our research shows this current bull market is still below average — both in terms of duration and total return — when compared to past market cycles going back to the 1950s. If it ended today, it would go down as one of the weakest on record. See chart below.

 

This is not a bet we’re willing to make, not has it been a stance we’ve taken during the current market rally off the “Trade Wars” low set in early-April.

Sources: All Star Charts and TrendLabs

 

While money market funds yield around 4%, the Nasdaq is running higher. Many investors (especially institutions) are calling that “risk-free,” but the real risk may be in missing out. This is a classic case of irrational decision-making — and from that, opportunity arises.

 

History shows that bull markets die in excess, not in doubt. And right now, with trillions still on the sidelines, this market is fueled by skepticism — not euphoria.

 

At Crescent Wealth Management, we believe staying invested with discipline is how wealth is built and better yet, how it’s preserved.

 

We wish you all a very fun and safe 4th of July!

 

Emory

 

P.S. - A Note on Cash and Risk Management


At Crescent Wealth Management, we don’t see cash as an "all in or all out" proposition. For clients who rely on their portfolios for income, we strategically allocate cash to meet short-term needs and provide predictability in a way that complements their long-term investment goals.

 

We also use cash tactically — as a risk management tool. Market corrections, like the sharp 20% drop we saw earlier this year, serve as a powerful reminder that volatility is real. By maintaining a flexible cash position, we’re able to:

 

  • Mitigate downside risk in turbulent markets
  • Safeguard portfolios from forced selling during periods of stress
  • And most importantly, deploy "dry powder" when high-quality opportunities emerge

 

This approach allows us to strike the right balance — protecting our clients from the emotional whipsaw of short-term volatility while remaining fully prepared to capture long-term upside.


Cash is not a plan. But when used with purpose, it can be one of the most effective tools in a long-term investment strategy.

Emory G. Hendrix, Jr., AAMS®, CEPA® 

Managing Director / Crescent Wealth Management

A: 124 Verdae Blvd., Ste. 105, Greenville, SC 29607

D: 864.729.4288 O: 864.464.9626   

E: emory@crescentwm.com   W: www.crescentwm.com

Advisory services provided by NewEdge Advisors, LLC doing business as Crescent Wealth Management, as a registered investment adviser. Securities offered through NewEdge Securities, Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC. NewEdge Advisors, LLC and NewEdge Securities, Inc. are wholly owned subsidiaries of NewEdge Capital Group, LLC.


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