In This Issue
President's Report
Many, Many Thanks, Bob!
State Committee Report
Primary Election Results
Special Election to Be Called for Vacant State Senate Seat (30th District)
The Judicial Delegate Primary and
the Judicial Convention
Redistricting: The Latest, and
What's Next
Perspective on Biden's Approval Polling
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STAY HEALTHY!
STAY SAFE!
For the latest official information from NYC
on the coronavirus, click here
or text COVID
to 692-692
To see the percentage of the residents in our area who have been vaccinated, click here. (data updated daily)
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ONLINE CLUB MEETING
Wednesday, September 8, 2021, at 8:00 pm
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Redistricting and the
Upper West Side
Susan Lerner
Executive Director, Common Cause/NY
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COVID Update
Mark Levine
Chair, City Council Health Committee
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Join the meeting from your computer, tablet or smartphone.
You may also either click on the link below or paste it
into your browser:
If you are asked for a PASSWORD, enter:
804959
You may also join by using your phone to dial in.
Meeting ID: 875 3979 0352
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AGENDA
7:45--8:00 pm: Log On / Dial in
8:00 pm: Call to Order
Speaker: Susan Lerner
Questions and Answers
Speaker: Mark Levine
Adjourn
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By Lorraine Zamora
Summer is drawing to a close, Labor Day is a week away, and vacationers are returning to the city to resume their urban lives. I had hoped that the city would be close to returning to “normal,” and that Covid masks would be a thing of the past. I also had hoped that Three Parks could resume its club meetings in person next week. But neither is about to happen. Given the rise of the Delta variant and the number of people still unvaccinated, the Three Parks Board feels that in-person meetings are still too risky. However, we are assessing in-person meetings on a monthly basis. I am in regular contact with the hostel, and as soon as we feel it is safe to meet in person, the hostel will be ready to welcome us back. And Three Parks members will be glad to see one another again. Fingers crossed that that can happen soon!
We have an exciting line-up of speakers for September and October. This month Susan Lerner, Executive Director of Common Cause/New York, will speak on redistricting, and Mark Levine, Chair of the City Council’s Health Committee and Democratic nominee for Manhattan Borough President, will bring us up to date on Covid and the Delta variant. In October, Scott Stringer will speak in his last club appearance as Comptroller, and Brad Lander, Democratic nominee for Comptroller, will discuss his plans to take office in January.
Elsewhere in this newsletter, our Female District Leader Cynthia Doty expresses the club’s thanks and appreciation to Bob Botfeld, our Male District Leader for the past two decades.
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Many, Many Thanks, Bob!
By Cynthia Doty
On behalf of the Three Parks family and the greater political community of NY County, I want to thank Bob Botfeld, our longest-serving District Leader, for his many years of service and dedication to our community. Bob has been involved with Three Parks for over 35 years. He has been our club’s political leader for decades, overseeing all our petitioning and supporting our many campaigns including all our campaign storefronts. Bob has been dedicated to the community and successfully protected us through his advocacy for its downzoning and its commercial rezoning.
On a personal note, I first met Bob in 1988 at our Presidential campaign storefront and have appreciated his comraderie and counsel ever since. He has been my political partner for many years, and I thank him for sharing his wisdom and friendship with me. Bob, Three Parks is grateful for all your service!
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State Committee Report
By Daniel Marks Cohen
Thank you again to the club for your support for my campaign for City Council. I am grateful for the support and feel honored to have participated, and very proud of the campaign I ran.
Things have been a bit up in the air in the State Committee, with the report released by AG Tish James on Governor Cuomo’s behavior, he may be out of office by the time you read this. Nonetheless, the rest of politics moves forward.
Redistricting. I testified before the NYS Independent Redistricting Commission, which will be redrawing the Congressional and State Legislature district lines this year. Here is my testimony:
I am the Democratic State Committeeman for the 69th Assembly District. I was elected in 2010 and have lived in the two adjacent Manhattan Valley/Morningside Heights neighborhoods my entire life, 50 years. I have testified on redistricting previously following the last Census cycle, and was also the principal litigant against the previous incarnation of this body, the New York State Legislative Task Force on Demographic Research and Reapportionment in the case Cohen v. LATFOR and then in its successor case, Cohen v. Cuomo, in 2012. Back then, the issue was Congressional and State Legislative seats, somewhat similar concerns to what we have today. I live in the 10th Congressional District ably represented by Congressman Jerry Nadler, and the district includes the entirety of the West Side and should continue to do so. Others today will speak on the subject of the Congressional lines but I urge you to maintain them largely as they are, and to also maintain the 10th separate from the East Side 12th district, ably represented by Carolyn Maloney.
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Congratulations to Gov. Kathy Hochul and
Lt. Gov. Brian Benjamin
Three Parks congratulates Kathy Hochul on becoming Governor of New York State, and our local State Senator Brian Benjamin on being named Lieutenant Governor. This past spring the Club endorsed Sen. Benjamin in his bid for election as NYC Comptroller.
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Primary Election Results
In the June 22 Democratic Primary, these Three Parks-endorsed candidates were winners:
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Jumaane Williams for Public Advocate
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Mark Levine for Manhattan Borough President
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Alvin Bragg for Manhattan District Attorney
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Gale Brewer for City Council District 6
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Hasa Kingo for Civil Court Judge
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Cynthia Doty for Female Democratic District Leader
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Judicial Delegates: Alan Flacks, Audrey Isaacs, Elizabeth Kellner, Josh Pepper, Deborah Thomas
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Alternate Delegates: Robert Bardin, Sam Bartos, Elaine Hazzard, Stephanie Tegnazian
Sincere thanks to all the Club members who campaigned for these candidates and helped make their victories possible!
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Special Election to Be Called for Vacant
State Senate Seat (30th District)
Because State Senator Brian Benjamin has been named Lieutenant Governor, his state senate seat for the 30th district is now vacant. A special election will be called to fill the seat. The first step will be the calling of a Democratic County Committee convention, most likely in mid-September. At that time, County Committee members from the 30th Senate District will choose a candidate to run for the seat. The actual election will be combined with the General Election on November 2. Watch your e-mail and the Three Parks website threeparksdems.org for further information about the convention date and for information about the candidates.
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The Judicial Delegate Primary and the Judicial Convention
By Elizabeth Kellner
The Primary. On June 22 election day, the slate of 18 Judicial Delegates (the full number to which the 69th AD was entitled) endorsed by the three reform clubs, Three Parks, Broadway and West Side Democrats (6 from each club), faced a primary challenge. There were 4 unaffiliated challengers. Three of the challengers were elected. Each club lost 1 of the 6 slots on their slate. Experience tells us that when primary voters are faced with a long list of unfamiliar names competing for an unfamiliar position and the opportunity to vote for 18 people, only the most highly informed and engaged voters will do that. So what happens time and again--and it happened on June 22--is that women outpoll men, and the random luck of your ballot position is also significant, with those at the top of a long list of candidates consistently doing better than those at the bottom. The 3 club-endorsed delegates who lost out were all men with long records of service to the Democratic Party on the Upper West Side. The top 15 finishers among the 18 delegates elected were all women. Interestingly, the internal rankings of the 15 women finishers changed a bit after the absentee ballots were counted, with the club-endorsed candidates doing better. Of the 3 challengers who were elected, only 1 actually showed up at the August 5 Judicial Convention held at the School of Visual Arts on W. 23rd St. All Delegate candidates were sent notice mailed to the address they gave on the nominating petitions filed with the Board of Elections with the convention date, time, location and other information provided.
The Judicial Convention. There were only two vacancies to be filled this year, but there were 17 candidates who were eligible because they had been reported as qualified by New York County’s Independent Screening Panel.
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Congratulations to Elizabeth and Doug Kellner on the birth of their grandson Dylan Yang Kellner! |
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Redistricting: The Latest, and What's Next
New York State is engaged in a new and untried procedure to redraw legislative and congressional districts following the 2020 census. This process could make a big difference in the 2022 elections and beyond. Also, there will be a proposal on the November General Election ballot to make some changes in the process.
Background: New York’s State Legislature Redistricting Commissions, with the authority to draw state legislative and congressional districts, have long used that power to create districts that give an advantage to a particular political party (the practice known as “gerrymandering”).
In 2014, New York took a significant step to at limit this practice when the voters approved an amendment to the state constitution creating an Independent Redistricting Commission. This amendment left the power to finally approve district maps with the legislature, but it gave the new Commission the authority to draft the initial maps. This procedure will be implemented for the first time in the 2021-2022 legislative and congressional redistricting following the 2020 census.
The Independent Redistricting Commission consists of ten members. The four party leaders in the legislature each appoint two members. The eight members so appointed must then choose two additional members, neither of whom shall have been enrolled in the preceding five years in either of the two major political parties.
Drawing the Maps. The initial maps will be prepared by the Commission. The maps must meet several requirements. The districts should not abridge “racial or language minority voting rights.” They should consist of “contiguous territory” and be as compact “as practicable.” In addition, they may not be drawn to favor or disfavor incumbents, candidates or parties. Finally, the one person, one vote requirement and the rules for senate districts with respect to the inability to split towns and counties remain in effect.
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Become an Election Day Poll Worker
The Board of Elections in the City of New York is hiring Election Day poll workers to work at poll sites across New York City.
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Election Inspector: Earn up to $600 for completing the training course, passing the exam, and working two Election days.
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Interpreter: Spanish, Chinese: Earn up to $575 for completing the training course, passing the exam, and working two Election Days.
HOURS/LOCATION: 5:00 a.m. until the polls are closed and closing tasks are completed, which will be after 9:00 p.m.
Must be willing to travel within the borough for assignment to a poll site.
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Perspective on Biden’s Approval Polling
By Steve Max
Democrats have been concerned with the recent drop in the President’s approval rating. For example, the Rasmussen Poll of August 23 shows Biden’s approval at 44% and disapproval at 55%. This has produced two reactions among Democrats: great hand wringing by some, and many others saying, “don’t worry, the polls are always wrong.”
Three Parks has long urged members and friends to click the 2021 Polling Data link on our web page for a more in-depth view of polling data. The polling organization FiveThirtyEight, in particular, applies many statistical techniques to correct for typical polling errors. For example, it is always better to average several polls instead of looking at just one. FiveThirtyEight takes this a step further and weights each poll in the average according to such things as sample size, past accuracy and partisanship, among others. The chart below shows the result with Biden looking more popular than unrefined poll results indicate. The small dots on the chart show the results of all the individual polls that go into the average. The closer the dots are to the average line, the more reliable the results are likely to be.
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Having determined the weighted average of all the polls, FiveThirtyEight goes a step further and analyses the past results of each individual polling company to see if there is pattern of that company reporting consistently above or below the average. If it appears that the methodology of a company tends to skew the result, FiveThirtyEight make an adjustment as shown below. |
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An accuracy grade is shown for each poll along with the sample size, who was polled, the weight in the overall average, the poll’s results and the adjusted results.
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Don't Miss Out!
Renew Your Three Parks Membership Now
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Renew online by clicking here.
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Renew by mail by printing out and returning the membership form at the end of this newsletter.
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Wednesday, Sept. 8, 8:00 PM
Three Parks Club Meeting
Wednesday, Sept. 22, 8:00 PM
Three Parks Board Meeting
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Wednesday, Oct. 13, 8:00 PM
Three Parks Club Meeting
Wednesday, Oct. 27, 8:00 PM
Three Parks Board Meeting
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The opinions expressed in this newsletter are those of the authors of the articles and are not necessarily representative of Three Parks.
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President
Lorraine Zamora
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Lynn Thomas
Daniel Marks Cohen
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Print, cut out, and mail this form.
2021 MEMBERSHIP FORM
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Mail to: Three Parks Independent Democrats
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Attention: Treasurer
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