Included in this issue of the newsletter:

• Message from Sasakawa USA's Chairman Satohiro Akimoto

March Activities

• US-Japan NEXT Alliance Initiative: NEXT Alliance Conference (NAC) Tokyo 2024
• Japan U.S. Military Program (JUMP): Quantico
• Recapturing Happiness Photo Exhibit: Recap and Reflection
• Rising Indo-Pacific Security Experts (RISE): Event with LTG Noboru Yamaguchi (JGSDF, Ret.)
• Congressional Study Group on Japan (CSGJ): Spring Reception
• US-Japan NEXT Alliance Initiative: Keio University PhD Candidate Roundtable

External Engagements

• Mr. James Schoff Speaks at Japan-America Society of North Carolina Annual Conference

Publications

• Japan Political Pulse (JPP): Prime Minister Kishida Juggles Peak Accomplishments with Upcoming By-Elections (Dr. Satohiro Akimoto)
• Japanese Version of Command and Control Modernization Article Published by Sasakawa USA (Mr. James Schoff and Mr. Christopher Johnstone)

Upcoming Activities:

• Japan U.S. Military Program (JUMP): Sakura Matsuri

Message from Sasakawa USA's Chairman Satohiro Akimoto

There is a strong sense of uncertainty and uneasiness about the future of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). An astute observer of Japanese politics told me during my recent trip to Tokyo that the LDP is facing its severest crisis since its inception in 1955. He continued to say that the LDP’s current problem is so fundamental that in the worst-case scenario, the LDP might break apart. While I do not think that the party will break apart anytime soon, I agree with the observer that the LDP is facing its biggest crisis in party history.

It is true that scandals of “politics and money” (seiji to kane), such as the “Recruit Scandal” in 1988, have jolted the party in the past. But every time a “politics and money” issue has surfaced, there has been a series of phases that always seem to take place, which eventually ends in the same old system: first, a media frenzy over “politics and money” scandals and personal troubles; second, loss of trust in the LDP by Japanese people; third, confusion and disarray within the party; fourth, efforts to manage the situation and minimize damages by the LDP leadership; fifth, fatigue over and loss of interest in the scandals; and lastly, regaining party stability due to the realization of the lack of LDP alternatives and the Japanese public coming to terms with the unfortunate reality. This pattern has been repeated without finding the underlying cause of “politics and money.” The observer said he had a feeling that this time might be different. The current slush fund scandal resulted in the dissolution of powerful factions within the party. Factions are institutionalized groups within the party to manage important intraparty affairs such as fundraising, elections, distribution of Cabinet posts, and power struggles among the party’s top to become the party leader, and hence prime minister. The current scandal has resulted in dissolution of four out of six factions, and about 70 percent of the LDP’s 376 lawmakers do not belong to any factions. It is only natural for like-minded lawmakers to form a group to advance their political agenda. This is especially true in Japan, where factions have been firmly institutionalized so that politics by groups becomes a second nature. But the current situation is in flux to the extent that it is difficult to foresee what is going to happen to factions.

I can add two more reasons why this time might be different. First, the dissolution of factions might usher in party-wide generational changes at the leadership level of the party. A symbolic example is the recent announcement by one of the most powerful faction leaders Toshihiro Nikai that he would not seek re-election in the next House of Representatives election. He was a formidable power to reckon with among the LDP lawmakers for over a decade with the honor of being the longest serving LDP secretary-general of the party. It is clear that it was not his true wish to retire from the chamber from the fact that he was so angry that he called a reporter, who asked about the effects of him being 85 years old, “stupid bastard (bakayaro).” Nikai may have a secret strategy to pass the baton to one of his sons to represent his constituency and, thus, preserve his influence. Yet, the fact remains that Nikai is leaving the center of the LDP intraparty politics.

Furthermore, it is expected that the LDP might severely punish senior leaders of the Abe faction, which has been at the center of the slush fund scandal: Yasutoshi Nishimura and Hakubun Shimomura, two former secretary-generals of the faction; Ryu Shionoya, leader of the faction’s executive board; and Hiroshige Seko, former secretary-general of the party’s Upper House. Severe punishment may include expulsion from the party, recommendation to leave the party, and suspension of party membership. Additionally, former Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori, who has played the role of caretaker of the faction at age 86, might be in serious trouble. Since he helped create Seiwa Seisaku Kenkyu Kai, a former body of the Abe faction, in 1998, he has been at the center of LDP intraparty politics. It is reported that Mori might have been involved in the resumption of the slush fund scheme in August 2022, following the death of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. It seems likely that these powerful elder and senior leaders will face significant loss, if not total loss, of their power within the party. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is said to make decisions on punishment for former Abe faction leaders over the slush fund before he embarks to Washington for his Official Visit.

Second, as factions are dissolved and senior leaders are under fire, power within the LDP has been concentrated on Prime Minister Kishida at this moment. However, Prime Minister Kishida’s political fortune is precarious to say the least in the current Japanese political landscape. His public approval rating, as well as the LDP’s approval rating, is dangerously low, in the mid 20 percent range. He faces three critical by-elections for the House of Representatives on April 28, immediately following his Official Visit to the United States. The LDP faces headwinds in all three by-election constituencies, (Nagasaki No. 3, Shimane No. 1, and Tokyo No. 15). In the worst-case scenario, the LDP could lose all three by-elections. This situation will severely weaken the current power center within the party and might lead to a prolonged period of disarray within the party.

While it is still possible that the traditional phases of money politics will play out as before, it is worth considering that a more significant shift could take place this time around. Generational change within the LDP, coupled with a weak prime minister and with a looming election in 2025, could force the party to evolve into something different and more fragmented. The future course of Japanese politics is highly unpredictable at the moment.

March Activities

US-Japan NEXT Alliance Initiative:

NEXT Alliance Conference (NAC) Tokyo 2024

The fourth NEXT Alliance Conference (NAC) was held in Tokyo from March 1 - 4. Its focus, “U.S.-Japan Economic Security Policy Coordination,” placed an emphasis on semiconductors, which have become a priority for policy makers in both countries and a major agenda item as their connection to national security issues grows. The weekend workshop focused heavily on supply chain resiliency, export controls, and R&D collaboration, as they relate to semiconductors. On March 4, a subset of participants journeyed to The University of Tokyo’s Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology (RCAST) for the public facing portion of the conference. Mr. Akira Igata, NAC participant and project lecturer at RCAST and director of its Economic Security Research Program, hosted Mr. James Schoff of the US-Japan NEXT Alliance Initiative, Dr. Crystal Pryor of SUNY Albany’s Center for Policy Research, Ms. Kathleen Kingscott of IBM Research, and Mr. Kevin Wolf of Akin Gump in a fireside chat discussion after they delivered individual reflections on the weekend’s discussions. Following Mr. Igata’s directed questions, the panelists fielded questions from the audience. The 85 attendees were comprised of students, academics, embassy officials, along with private and public sector representatives. 

Photo (panelists, left to right): Mr. Akira Igata, Mr. James Schoff, Dr. Crystal Pryor, Ms. Kathleen Kingscott, and Mr. Kevin Wolf

Japan U.S. Military Program (JUMP): Quantico

On March 7, Sasakawa USA held a Japan U.S. Military Program (JUMP) event at the U.S. Marine Corps University in Quantico, Virginia. The event, “Japan’s Evolving Defense Plan,” featured welcome remarks from Brigadier General Maura Hennigan (USMC), president of Marine Corps University, as well as keynote remarks from Rear Admiral Takaaki Hayamizu (JMSDF), defense and naval attaché at the Embassy of Japan. The event also featured a panel discussion featuring perspectives on Japanese defense policy and the U.S.-Japan security alliance from Colonel Satoshi Masaka (JGSDF), military attaché at the Embassy of Japan; Mr. Andrew Lee, deputy director in the Office of Japanese Affairs at the U.S. Department of State; and Mr. James Schoff, Senior Director of the US-Japan NEXT Alliance Initiative at Sasakawa USA.

Photo (left to right): Ms. Shanti Shoji, Mr. James Schoff, Dr. Satohiro Akimoto, Brigadier General Maura Hennigan (USMC), Rear Admiral Takaaki Hayamizu (JMSDF), Colonel Satoshi Masaka (JGSDF), Colonel Brian Sharp (USMC), and Mr. Andrew Lee

Recapturing Happiness Photo Exhibit:

Recap and Reflection

The Recapturing Happiness: The Enduring Spirit of Ishinomaki photo exhibit featuring Mr. Keisuke Hirai’s photographs at the Japan Information & Culture Center came to an end on Wednesday, March 13. The exhibition and reception to celebrate its opening were well attended, including by the ambassador of Japan to the United States, Congressional members of the U.S. House of Representatives, and members of the military service involved in Operation Tomodachi, the joint humanitarian assistance effort by Japan’s Self-Defense Forces and the U.S. Armed Forces in response to the Great East Japan Earthquake that occurred on March 11, 2011. A total of 483 visitors came to the exhibition and learned about Ishinomaki’s story of recovery, resilience, and happiness following the earthquake and tsunami, which are becoming increasingly universal experiences given the rising frequency of natural disasters globally.

To remember the 13th year since the disaster, Sasakawa USA and the Japan Information & Culture Center, Embassy of Japan held extended gallery hours on Monday, March 11, for guests to visit the exhibit before its closing. Among them were students in the afterschool Japanese language program Globalize DC who joined us to reflect upon the resilience of the human spirit in Ishinomaki. 

Photo: Members of the public and students at Globalize DC joined Sasakawa USA and the Embassy of Japan for extended gallery hours at the Japan Information & Culture Center on March 11, 2024.

Rising Indo-Pacific Security Experts (RISE):

Event with LTG Noboru Yamaguchi (JGSDF, Ret.)

On March 12, Sasakawa USA hosted LTG Noboru Yamaguchi, former commanding general of the research and development command, Japan Ground Self-Defense Force (Ret.), to engage with Sasakawa USA’s Rising Indo-Pacific Security Experts (RISE) on “Reflections on Ukraine and Taiwan: History Rhymes?” LTG Yamaguchi focused on the historical similarities between the past and present global conflicts, conflicts from the 1930s, current conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, and potential contingency conflicts over the Taiwan Straits. An engaging Q&A session followed LTG Yamaguchi’s remarks from the RISE participants and was moderated by Dr. Satohiro Akimoto, chairman and president of Sasakawa USA.

Photo (left to right): LTG Noboru Yamaguchi and Dr. Satohiro Akimoto

Congressional Study Group on Japan (CSGJ):

Spring Reception

On March 19, the U.S. Association of Former Members of Congress (FMC) Congressional Study Group on Japan (CSGJ) hosted a spring reception to celebrate the U.S.-Japan relationship with its friends and partners, sponsored by Sasakawa USA. The reception brought together Congressional staff whose offices have engaged with CSGJ to facilitate networking and further engagement. Hon. Larry Bucshon (R-IN) and Hon. Diana DeGette (D-CO), co-chairs of CSGJ, and Dr. Satohiro Akimoto, chairman and president of Sasakawa USA, shared remarks on the importance of CSGJ and its work to strengthen the U.S.-Japan alliance. Thus far, 56 members of Congress and 60 chiefs of staff have travelled to Japan through CSGJ.

Photo (left to right): CSGJ Co-Chair Hon. Diana DeGette (D-CO), Sasakawa USA Chairman and President Dr. Satohiro Akimoto, and CSGJ Co-Chair Hon. Larry Bucshon (R-IN) give remarks at the reception.

US-Japan NEXT Alliance Initiative:

Keio University PhD Candidate Roundtable

The US-Japan NEXT Alliance Initiative hosted a group of PhD candidates and their academic advisors from Keio University for a roundtable on their research topics on March 13. The group was part of the “Armitage Program” at Keio, led by Keio professors Dr. Yuichi Hosoya, professor of international politics; Dr. Motohiro Tsuchiya, vice president for global engagement and information technology; and Professor Koichiro Tanaka of the Graduate School of Media and Governance. The three candidates, Rintaro Inoue, Hirohito Ogi, and Yoshiyuki Sagara are researchers at the Institute of Geoeconomics and are each looking into different aspects of the current security landscape of the Indo-Pacific region. Together with Sasakawa USA President Satohiro Akimoto and Senior Director James Schoff, along with Professor Andrew Oros of Washington College, the group discussed each dissertation topic in turn, considered various linkages to implications for the U.S.-Japan alliance, and provided feedback to the scholars. 

Photo: Roundtable participants at Sasakawa USA

External Engagements

Mr. James Schoff Speaks at Japan-America Society of North Carolina Annual Conference

NEXT Alliance Initiative Senior Director James Schoff was a featured speaker and panelist at the 2024 Japan-America Society of North Carolina 2024 Annul Conference on “Emerging Technologies and the Indo-Pacific” in Durham, NC, on March 14. Mr. Schoff spoke on the “National Economic Security Consensus” within the U.S.-Japan alliance, highlighting many areas of alliance agreement and cooperation, but also noting potential friction points. Associate Professor Takahiro Tsuchiya from Kyoto University of Advanced Science was another featured speaker, and the panel discussion was moderated by CEO of the Economic Development Partnership of North Carolina, Mr. Christopher Chung. The program was part of the National Association of Japan-America Societies’ (NAJAS) “Geostrategy in the Grassroots” initiative, supported by Sasakawa Peace Foundation in Tokyo. Photos from the event can be accessed via Japan-America Society of North Carolina’s webpage here: 2024 JASNC Conference | JASNC.

Photo (left to right): Mr. Christopher Chung, Professor Takahiro Tsuchiya, and Mr. James Schoff

Publications

Japan Political Pulse (JPP): Prime Minister Kishida Juggles Peak Accomplishments with Upcoming

By-Elections (Dr. Satohiro Akimoto)

In his recent article, “Prime Minister Kishida Juggles Peak Accomplishments with Upcoming By-Elections,” Sasakawa USA Chairman and President Dr. Satohiro Akimoto predicts Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's mindset, even with an Official Visit to Washington on April 10, will be on the domestic political calendar with three important by-elections on April 28. In addition, Prime Minister Kishida will be focused on how best to continue his prime ministership beyond September even with low approval ratings for his leadership and the LDP. For an assessment on Prime Minister Kishida and the upcoming by-elections in Nagasaki No. 3, Shimane No. 1, and Tokyo No. 15 constituencies for the House of Representatives, you can read more of Dr. Akimoto’s article here.

Japan Political Pulse (JPP) regularly publishes articles on the state and trends of Japanese politics for American observers and practitioners of U.S.-Japan relations.

Photo: Japan Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and U.S. President Joe Biden shake hands during a meeting in the Oval Office at the White House on January 13, 2023, in Washington, DC. (Photo by Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)

Japanese Version of Command and Control Modernization Article Published by Sasakawa USA

(Mr. James Schoff and Mr. Christopher Johnstone)

Sasakawa USA recently published the Japanese version of a co-authored article by NEXT Alliance Initiative Senior Director James Schoff and Mr. Christopher Johnstone, senior advisor and Japan chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, on U.S.-Japan command and control modernization, drawing from the Sasakawa USA project “U.S.-Japan Task Force on Command Relationships for New Challenges.” The article, titled “A Vital Next Step for the U.S.-Japan Alliance: Command and Control Modernization,” or “日米同盟に不可欠な次のステップ：指揮統制 (C2)の近代化 (仮訳),” is essentially an executive summary of recommendations derived from the NEXT Alliance Initiative's Task Force project, making the case that now is the time to upgrade alliance capacity for bilateral defense planning and coordination, and outlining a practical approach for implementation. The article is a timely contribution as the allies’ two leaders prepare to endorse an official bilateral dialogue on C2 modernization.

Upcoming Activities

Japan U.S. Military Program (JUMP): Sakura Matsuri

On Saturday, April 13, and Sunday, April 14, Sasakawa USA’s Japan U.S. Military Program (JUMP) will participate in the Sakura Matsuri street festival in Washington, DC. At the festival, Sasakawa USA will introduce JUMP’s programs to honor those military personnel and veterans who served in the U.S.-Japan alliance and inform attendees about Sasakawa USA’s work building a stronger U.S.-Japan alliance for the benefit of both countries and a free and open international community. The Sakura Matsuri street festival is a public event organized by the Japan-America Society of Washington DC and is the largest celebration of Japanese culture in the United States.

Photo: Former Ambassador of Japan to the United States Koji Tomita with Sasakawa USA and JUMP at the Sakura Matsuri street festival in 2022

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