Harry, a widower. His dog, Heinz, a companion for over 14 years. A bundle of mongrel, street-wise fluff.
Harry said; ‘…he was a mixture of 57 varieties, that’s why we called him Heinz…’
On Thursdays Harry would be at his front-door and clap for the NHS. Heinz, hoisted up on the wheelie-bin, barked approval. The neighbours would shout ‘You all right, Harry?’ He’d wave and close the front-door, ready to face another week of isolation.
Heinz’ outings, once a run in the park had become a walk around the block. Mostly, he’d sit next to Harry, on the sofa, bury his nose in the cushions and quietly snore his way to tea time.
Like clockwork, he woke-up for the six o’clock news and his bowl of pedigree-delight. Nothing too good for Heinz, even for a pensioner like Harry.
Nigh-time; he’d curl-up on a square of tartan blanket, at the end of Harry’s bed.
One evening, nuzzled-up on the sofa, with his head on Harry’s lap, Heinz went to sleep and never woke up.
It was lockdown. No chance of getting to the pet cemetery. Harry took a shovel and dug a hole in the garden, near the sunflowers, against the back-wall. It took Harry all day. He’s in his eighties.
At sunset, with tears rolling down his cheeks, he buried Heinz, wrapped in the tartan blanket, wearing the collar he and his wife had bought him, at the last Christmas they were all together.
Just over a week later, a worried neighbour, who’d missed seeing him out with Heinz, found Harry dead, on the sofa.
Harry died during the Covid-peak. Not of the virus, but from the virus, its malevolent influence on the way Harry was obliged to live.
Harry missed his wife. When Heinz went, he was companionless, isolated. Enough was enough. Loneliness is devastating.
If Harry had lost Heinz in different times he might have been better able to cope.
I thought about Harry and Heinz when I read this;
‘The total death toll for the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, in a country, is affected by three key groups of determinants and the social and political factors that shape them: the baseline characteristics of the population… the response policies, the agility of public health, health and social care systems… isolation, the denial of essential services……’
Harry and Heinz are in their somewhere.
These astute observations are from a new report from Dr Jonny Pearson-Stuttard et-al, at Imperial, with the brain busting title;
'Magnitude, demographics and dynamics of the effect of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic on all-cause mortality in 21 industrialised countries.'
In English;the timing of lock-down in relation to when initial infections occurred, affects the peak number of people who are infected, which drives both the number of deaths from COVID-19 and the pressure on the health- care system that displaces routine care…
…with simple to understand consequences.
Our politicians reject country bench- marking. Arguing; the data, methodology and timing are not comparable across countries.
Well, they are now!
Using a probabilistic model, averaging approach, with an ensemble of 16 Bayesian models, for comparable quantification of the weekly mortality effects… it is possible and Imperial have done it.
There have been over one million Covid deaths and an increase in deaths from other health conditions, due to a disruption in healthcare services, or economic or social factors.
The upshot of the comparisons;
England and Wales had the highest number of deaths of the 21 nations, 28%.
Compared to New Zealand and Denmark, the UK introduced a lockdown after the pandemic was ripping through the community.
Pearson-Stuttard says;
“… test and trace programmes and supporting people who need to isolate, are our most important levers to minimise the impact of the pandemic…”
This report tells us it’s impossible to count the impact of the virus without adding-in the collateral damage it does and more importantly, why.
It’s reasonable to ask the question, why are we at the wrong end of the league table? ’Normal deaths’ aren’t normal anymore.
The report paints a picture of a government, running behind, out of step, struggling to catch up.
Lessons learned?
Dunno, but they’ll all be too late for Harry.
-oOo-
Maybe you 'don't do' complicated technical reports and I don't blame you but... this report has a series of graphs and charts that are well worth a lookand a really important set of messages.
This is what I'm hearing; if you know different tell me, in confidence, here
________
>>I'm hearing - the new Downing Street press secretary is Allegra Stratton, who is married to the political editor of the Spectator, who works alongside the commissioning editor who happens to be married to Dominic Cummings, who is the chief adviser to Boris Johnson.
"The picture presented is of a man of influence coping with the possibility that a wonder drug that had reshaped his clinical practice and changed the lives of many of his patients had actually caused them harm."
