Industry Updates for Clients & Friends of Boyd Group International

December 22, 2023


In This T&G: 

  • We take a hard look at the real implications for Sustainable Airline Fuel after Virgin Atlantic operated an all-SAF flight across the Atlantic. Actually, it revealed more fundamental market problems that now need to be answered before SAF can be declared viable.



The Virgin Atlantic All-SAF Flight Across The Atlantic:


Only One Factor In Determining Market Viability of The SAF Concept.


Summary: The viability determination for Sustainable Aviation Fuel is based on a whole lot more issues than just whether it can power a jet airliner. There are indications that this is being ignored.


With great fanfare, Virgin Atlantic launched an empty 787 fueled completely with SAF from Heathrow to JFK.


In some quarters, the welcome approached an electronic version of Lindbergh’s arrival in Paris back in 1927.


The conclusion from the airline:    

        

“Flight100 proves Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) is a safe drop-in replacement for fossil derived jet fuel and the only mid-term viable solution for decarbonising long haul aviation.”


It proves that it will work. But it raises the question of whether it can be cost-effective and supply-available to make any difference. The majority of the coverage glowingly commented that the flight proved that SAF is the answer, albeit a “mid-term viable solution.”


Yikes. In its current form, they claim it’s the only such solution. There’s trouble in carbonland.


At risk of being burned at the intellectual stake for heresy, the Virgin Atlantic flight – as well earlier media-ops such as running SAF on one engine on a commercial flight – only “proves” one thing: The stuff can be burned in a jet engine.


Beyond that, it illuminated more questions and questionable comments than hard answers.

Going beyond the hoopla, there is a whole passel of issues that are glossed over by the folks touting the current approach to SAF.  


The contention is that when the demand for SAF grows, so will the supply, and the cost will go down.


Facts not in evidence, y'all.

Actually, facts are in short supply.


Burning Clean Isn't The Only Criterion. There is no question – or not much of one – that current SAF technology can power a jet engine. There’s no question that it theoretically can be produced. But there are gigantic other issues that the flight illuminated, most notably that there has been little apparent scrutiny of if a "sustainable" supply chain for SAF can be developed.


Let’s dissect the official story that the media is treating like groupies at a Grateful Dead concert:


Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) can be made from waste streams, which otherwise would be thrown away (such as used cooking oil).


An Observation: “Used cooking oil?” Try as I may, I cannot find any research regarding the volumes of petered-out Mazola that can come on the market. Nor, if a cost-effective central system can be established to collect the stuff once grandma and restaurants and fast-food joints get done with it.


Beyond a maybe a future government mandate that consumers gobble more greasy food to increase the availability of SAF, the supply issue is completely unknown.


It can also be produced using renewable feedstocks such as agricultural or forestry waste. When produced from renewable feedstocks SAF only emits the same amount of carbon to the atmosphere as was previously absorbed by its feedstock, thereby closing the carbon loop.


An Observation: “Agricultural and Forestry waste?” What exactly is this? And, since it is noted as a key part of the current SAF picture, what is the volume of this stuff? If it can be fully identified, what is the future production from these farms and arbors? The comment about the “carbon loop” seems to sound like technobabble.


This reduces emissions, significantly lowering the aviation industry’s carbon footprint and dependency on fossil fuels.


An Observation: A prudent question is how much energy will be needed to develop the production and supply chains of gathering cooking oil and materials that are now being wasted in forests, plus the other condiments needed to make it all work. And, importantly, are there enough of these to really support aviation?


Tailpipe Fixation: Blotting Out Comprehensive Research. This is not to imply that attempts to find alternative fuel are misguided or impossible.


The fear is that this SAF program has all the danger signs of what’s going on with the Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) program, where facts about battery supply and cost, as well as major program failures (Tecnam and NASA) have been completely ignored.


It’s a serious issue.


Like SAF, there are lots and lots of positive – and accurate – projections of what AAM may represent. But zero – none, nada, mei-you – coverage of the fact – fact – that unless major breakthroughs with battery production, supply and distribution are made, it’s going to be more hot air than air travel.


There have been no credible data to determine the cost of batteries once the supply chain comes out from under a range of pesky issues. Like slave labor cobalt mines. Like the environmental damage from lithium production. Like wresting control of battery production from the criminal regime running China.


The questions regarding Sustainable Aviation Fuel are just as pertinent.


The entire process working back from the tailpipe must be taken environmentally seriously. The media circus around Virgin Atlantic Flight 100 is not comforting.


Just some observations. Not in context with the consensus.


But provided for thoughtful consideration.

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A whole new year ahead. New dynamics and new opportunities.


Planning for the new future demands having a clear grasp of the emerging trends in air transportation.


The future will be different, and access to the pulse of aviation is critical to plan for it. This is the reason we rely on Cirium to keep our clients ahead of the change curve.

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Observations From Not So Afar

In The Aviation Industry



China Expected To Approve Boeing 737 Deliveries. After three years of a de facto ban on Boeing, the CAAC is reported to be close to allowing 737 deliveries in the Middle Kingdom. Global Singapore-based leasing company BOC Aviation, which is owned by the Bank of China, also just ordered four 737-8s. This is not expected to reverse cancellation of orders registered in the meantime.


Red Way Airlines Scheme Described As A "Failed Riverboat Gamble." A state auditor report concluded that the short-lived Red Way operation at Lincoln, Nebraska was essentially a shoddy amateur act that squandered state and local incentives based on sloppy promises and officials that didn't look beyond sunshine traffic projections.


A warning call to other communities. Airport boards have the responsibility to understand the dynamics of consumer air transportation. lest they become marks for all sorts of glowing air service schemes. The economics have changed and the role of air service as a communication channel have changed too. Civic hubris has a price.


At Lincoln, it was $3.7 million.

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