What to anticipate

SWEEPING CHANGES

Agency heads, EOs, driving actions

As the Trump administration implements sweeping changes under its “America First Trade Policy,” the logistics industry, particularly air cargo, faces uncertainty and adaptation.

CBP’s Proposed Rule to Enhance Oversight of Low-Value Shipments

CBP’s proposed Entry of Low-Value Shipments (ELVS) rule aims to tighten oversight on de minimis shipments by requiring enhanced data submissions. With over 4 million low-value shipments entering the U.S. daily, the rule seeks to improve supply chain visibility, enabling CBP to better identify and interdict high-risk goods like counterfeit items and drug precursors. This proposed regulation signals the increasing importance of compliance and data accuracy in international trade, challenging businesses to adapt while safeguarding efficient and secure operations.

Anticipate Changes Today

PREPARE FOR TOMORROW

Shared Stories

Overhead Panama Canal

In response to the Panama Canal Authority's (ACP) revised booking system effective January 1, 2025, major shipping lines are introducing transit surcharges. MSC and CMA CGM will levy a $40 per TEU fee on all cargo types from Asia to U.S. East and Gulf Coasts. The ACP's modifications include changes to tariff structures and the introduction of new fees aimed at optimizing transit operations. These surcharges reflect carriers' efforts to offset increased costs due to the ACP's adjustments.

NEW CANAL SURCHARGES
The words FORCED LABOR ADDITIONS over a background of a fence

A recent report highlights that a significant portion of goods imported into the United States may be produced using forced labor, particularly from China's Xinjiang region. The Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act (UFLPA), enacted in December 2021, aims to prevent such goods from entering the U.S. market. Since its implementation, U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) has intensified enforcement, detaining nearly 4,000 shipments valued at approximately $1.63 billion.

FORCED LABOR REPORT
World map on fire

The 20th edition of the Global Risks Report comes at a time when several structural forces continue to reshape the global landscape. Environmental risks remain a top long-term concern, while geopolitical risks, particularly conflicts, top immediate concerns. Societal risks like inequality rank high, and polarization within societies is hampering policy-making while fueling misinformation. The report emphasizes that multilateral solutions are essential for addressing these interconnected challenges, despite the current fragmented global environment.

GLOBAL RISK REPORT

Solid wood packing materials (SWPM) are regulated for entry by the United States Department of Agriculture. On January 1st, the marking requirements changed for what is called the ISPM 15 stamp. The most significant change is the ISPM 15 marking can no longer include "DB" text/code as it will be refused entry into the United States and exportation will be the only alternative. For more information, click to download this two-page explainer from Coppersmith and the USDA.



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Transpacific Rates Trend & Market Information


Transpacific spot rate decline has been continuing for the third consecutive week after it reached the peak at the beginning of January. The major factors behind this were China’s production suspended (lower demand) and carriers’ rolling pools built (higher supply) for the Lunar New Year holiday.


Meanwhile, the shipping alliance reshuffles will inject more capacity into the transpacific trade. Premier Alliance (ONE + YML + HMM) is expected to have around 8% total block space agreement growth, mainly focus on East Coast. Gemini Alliance (HPL + MSK) will have around 20% capacity increase gradually from February. MSC is also expected to significantly increase capacity by adding additional loops and extra port calls, when its new standalone East-West network will come on stream. Ocean Alliance doesn’t have too many changes, and the total will remain around 5 million TEUs of total deployed capacity.

Ceasefire Prompts Limited Red Sea Shipping Recovery Amid Challenges

Despite the ceasefire, carriers like Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd remain cautious, delaying their return to the Suez route until ceasefire stability is assured. Cargo insurers are also expected to hesitate in adjusting their coverage. The shipping industry's path to recovery remains uncertain as it navigates these volatile conditions.


The Houthi group has announced it will halt attacks on most vessels transiting the Red Sea, targeting only those owned by Israeli entities or flying the Israeli flag. This unexpected move follows the Gaza ceasefire agreement and aims to ease tensions in the region, though threats of renewed aggression against US, UK, or Israeli vessels remain if Yemen faces future hostilities.


Shipping experts anticipate significant disruptions as carriers adjust to the sudden availability of Red Sea routes. Drewry projects a 25% oversupply of tonnage, and Xeneta’s Peter Sand predicts schedule chaos, increased port congestion, and a collapse in freight rates due to excess capacity. The industry must address the challenge of 1.8 million TEU requiring removal to stabilize rates.


Transpacific Space Situation

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