Trump Inauguration Moved Indoors Due to Extreme Cold in DC

Trump Inauguration Moved Indoors Due to Extreme Cold in DC | New Trump Era Begins
Trump wants to visit China | Biden approves wind farm on way out | A look at Trump’s agenda

The Week Ahead: Jan. 19, 2025

Topics in this dispatch also include: (1) Yellen announces 'extraordinary measures' to address the debt limit; (2) IRS leadership transition; (3) Approval of SouthCoast wind farm; (4) Trump plans to delay TikTok ban; (5) Israel/Hamas ceasefire and hostage deal; (6) Debut of giant pandas in Washington; (7) Focus on Trump’s inauguration week; (8) Confirmation hearing for USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins, key issues; (9) Inauguration moved indoors due to extreme cold; (10) Mexican delegation at Trump's inauguration; (11) 2025 Inaugural Balls; (12) Deregulatory drives by Trump administration; (13) Trump's 31 major policy initiatives; (14) Pushback against RFK Jr.’s nomination as HHS Secretary; and (15) Fix Our Forests Act, bipartisan legislation on wildfire management and forest policy.

— WSJ: Trump weighs early visit to China amid trade tensions. President-elect Donald Trump has expressed interest in visiting China early in his presidency to engage with President Xi Jinping, Wall Street Journal sources revealed (link). This initiative aims to address strained U.S./China relations, particularly over Trump’s threat to impose tariffs of up to 60% on Chinese imports. While no decision has been finalized, Trump reportedly seeks a meeting with Xi within his first 100 days in office.

The two leaders discussed trade, fentanyl, and strategic communications during a Friday call, highlighting mutual interest in resolving tensions. Beijing is eager to negotiate amid mounting economic pressures, potentially viewing an early summit to delay tariff hikes.

Trump’s foreign engagement could also extend to India, though his initial priorities include domestic policies such as border security and energy reforms. A China visit would occur during a delicate phase, with contentious issues like Taiwan and fentanyl supplies adding to the complexity of U.S./China relations.

China’s Vice President Han Zheng, seen as a pragmatic envoy, will attend Trump’s inauguration. Observers note this choice signals Beijing’s willingness to engage in trade negotiations under Trump’s administration.

— Yellen announces 'extraordinary measures' to address debt limit. Outgoing Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen informed congressional leaders that the U.S. government will begin "extraordinary measures" on Tuesday to prevent breaching the nation's debt limit. These measures include temporarily halting payments to certain federal funds, such as the Civil Service Retirement and Disability Fund, until Congress raises or eliminates the debt ceiling.

In a Friday letter to Capitol Hill, Yellen highlighted the uncertainty surrounding the duration of these measures, though they are expected to extend at least until March 14, 2025. This does not represent the “X-date,” the point when the Treasury could run out of cash to meet obligations, which analysts estimate could arrive by summer or fall.

Yellen reiterated the severe risks of failing to address the debt limit, urging Congress to act swiftly to protect the federal government’s creditworthiness and the broader U.S. economy. "The debt limit does not authorize new spending," Yellen stressed, "but it creates a risk that the federal government might not be able to finance its existing legal obligations."

— IRS leadership transition amid administration change. IRS Commissioner Danny Werfel announced his resignation, effective Monday (Jan. 20), as the Trump administration assumes power. Despite having years left in his term, Werfel is stepping aside for former Rep. Billy Long (R-Mo.), nominated by Trump to lead the agency. With tax-filing season beginning soon and Long’s confirmation pending, Deputy Commissioner Doug O’Donnell will serve as interim leader of the IRS.

— Biden administration approves SouthCoast wind farm ahead of Trump inauguration. The Interior Department granted final approval for the 2.4-gigawatt SouthCoast Wind farm off the Massachusetts coast, marking the 11th commercial-scale offshore wind project authorized during President Joe Biden's term. The decision, issued just before President-elect Donald Trump's inauguration, clears the way for construction of up to 141 turbines and five offshore substation platforms south of Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket. SouthCoast Wind, a joint venture by Ocean Winds North America LLC (EDP Renewables and Engie), faces potential challenges as offshore wind opponents draft measures Trump could employ to halt ongoing projects. The President-elect has been an outspoken critic of wind farms, recently declaring he opposes any new windmill construction during his administration.

— Trump plans to delay TikTok ban, push for U.S. ownership stake. President-elect Donald Trump announced on Jan. 19 that he will sign an executive order delaying the federal ban on TikTok, aiming to negotiate a deal to protect U.S. national security. The move follows the app's shutdown on Saturday night, leaving millions of users unable to access the platform. “I’m asking companies not to let TikTok stay dark!” Trump posted on Truth Social, pledging to extend the compliance deadline and explore a joint U.S. ownership venture. The law, enacted in April 2024, requires TikTok's parent company, ByteDance, to sell its U.S. operations by Jan. 19 or face a nationwide ban. Congress passed the legislation over concerns about the app’s ties to the Chinese Communist Party. The U.S. Supreme Court upheld the law. ByteDance has resisted selling TikTok, despite multiple offers from potential buyers. Trump's plan to postpone the ban could allow time for negotiations, potentially granting the U.S. government a 50% stake in the platform. Both Google and Apple have removed TikTok from their stores, complying with federal law. Trump assured there would be no liability for companies that assist in keeping the platform online during the interim period.

— Ceasefire and hostage deal begins amid Israel/Hamas conflict. The Israel/Hamas ceasefire and hostage release agreement commenced on Sunday, January 19, following a brief delay. The truce began after a delay caused by Hamas failing to provide names of the first hostages. This is the second pause in the 15-month-long conflict. The initial phase involves releasing 33 Israeli hostages over six weeks. Women, children, elderly individuals, and those needing medical care are prioritized. Three hostages, including two American/Israeli citizens, are set for release on day one. Hamas will release three living female hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners. Israel plans to release at least 1,700 Palestinian prisoners, including those with no involvement in the October 2023 attack. The ceasefire permits increased humanitarian aid to Gaza, with Palestinians celebrating regained access to areas previously restricted. The current phase is expected to last 42 days, with negotiations for subsequent releases, including male Israeli soldiers, beginning mid-phase.

— On Friday, Jan. 24, two giant pandas from China, Bao Li and Qing Bao, make their public debut at Washington’s National Zoo, after Chinese authorities took back a previous pair in 2023.

WASHINGTON FOCUS

This week is mostly about Donald Trump’s inauguration as the 47th president, with a flurry of executive orders and illegal immigrant deportations expected soon. The week will also include some Cabinet nominee votes, and more nominee hearings, including USDA Secretary-nominated Brooke Rollins on Thursday, Jan. 23. Vote action includes:

Monday: The Senate Foreign Relations Committee will vote on the nomination of Sen. Marco Rubio as Secretary of State.
Tuesday: The Senate Finance Committee will consider Scott Bessant for Treasury Secretary.
Thursday: The Senate Environment and Public Works Committee will vote on Lee Zeldin, nominated to lead the EPA.

— Rollins' confirmation hearing: Key issues expected. Brooke Rollins' confirmation hearing for USDA Secretary, originally scheduled for Jan. 15, was delayed to Jan. 23 due to paperwork delays. Specifically, the Senate Agriculture Committee was waiting on Rollins' FBI background check and ethics disclosures to be completed and submitted.

At the upcoming hearing, lawmakers are likely to question Rollins on several key issues:

New farm bill: Her plans to advocate for a new farm bill.
SNAP cuts: How the Trump administration views proposed cuts to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) in the planned Republican reconciliation bill.
Trade policy: Her approach to addressing trade retaliation against farmers.
Commodity Credit Corporation: Whether the administration needs open access to the CCC, which Republicans sought to restrict last year.
Agricultural economy: Plans to stabilize the declining agricultural economy.
Biofuel policy: Her stance on ethanol and the Renewable Fuel Standard, given past criticisms from organizations she led.
Immigration: The administration's plans regarding farmworkers without legal status, as Trump has promised mass deportations.

Senators will likely also probe Rollins on her background in agriculture and her vision for leading the USDA, given her limited direct experience in agricultural policymaking

— Inauguration moved indoors due to extreme cold. President-elect Donald Trump and Senator JD Vance will be sworn into office inside the Capitol Rotunda, avoiding the dangerously cold temperatures forecasted for Washington, D.C. The entire ceremony, including prayers and speeches, will take place indoors, according to Trump’s announcement on Truth Social. This marks the first indoor inauguration due to weather since Ronald Reagan’s second term in 1985, and the second such event in history, following James Monroe’s indoor inauguration due to a snowstorm.

Trump said that he would open Capital One arena in downtown Washington Monday for a live viewing of the event, and for the presidential parade. He said he will join the crowd at the arena following the ceremony.

— Mexico’s Slim and Cervantes to attend Trump’s inauguration; Sheinbaum left out. Billionaire Carlos Slim, Mexico’s wealthiest man with a net worth nearing $100 billion, will attend Donald Trump’s inauguration as the 47th president of the United States in Washington, D.C. He will be joined by Francisco Cervantes, president of Mexico's influential Business Coordinating Council (CCE), who confirmed plans to begin talks with high-ranking U.S. officials during the event.

Notably absent from the invitation list is Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum. Mexico will be officially represented by Ambassador Esteban Moctezuma. The Trump administration’s policies, including a planned 25% tariff on Mexican exports and mass deportation operations, are expected to pose significant challenges to Mexico.

Slim expressed confidence that the Mexican economy would navigate these challenges effectively, emphasizing its complementary relationship with the U.S. economy. Meanwhile, Sheinbaum’s government has signaled readiness to implement reciprocal tariffs and address deportation logistics if needed.

Of note: World leaders, including Argentina’s Javier Milei and El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele, are also set to make history by attending a U.S. presidential inauguration.

— 2025 Trump inaugural balls: Official and unofficial celebrations. The 2025 Presidential Inaugural Ball, the official centerpiece of the festivities, will take place at the Walter E. Washington Convention Center on Jan. 20, starting at 8 p.m., with President Trump and the first lady expected to attend. Beyond this official event, numerous unofficial inaugural balls will be held across Washington, D.C., offering diverse themes and price ranges:

All American Inaugural Ball (Jan. 18, Hyatt Regency Capitol Hill): Tickets start at $350, with VIP upgrades reaching $2,500.
North Carolina Society Inaugural Ball (Jan. 18, Mellon Auditorium): Tickets, ranging from $263.74 to $316.26, are sold out.
Legacy of Freedom Ball (Jan. 19, Arena Stage): Prices range from $250 to $500.
Latino Inaugural Ball (Jan. 19, Mayflower Hotel): Sold out as of Jan. 3.
Palmetto Presidential Inaugural Ball (Jan. 19, National Portrait Gallery): Tickets cost $325.
GW Inaugural Ball (Jan. 19, Omni Shoreham Hotel): Student tickets are $125, with others priced at $150.
Texas Black Tie & Boots Ball (Jan. 19, Washington Hilton): Tickets, ranging from $300 to $15,000, are sold out.
Rally4Vets Inaugural Ball (Jan. 20, Fairmont Washington D.C. Georgetown): Prices range from $300 to $750, with sponsorships up to $35,000.
Society of Michigan: Bipartisan Inaugural Celebration (Jan. 18, National Museum of American History): Tickets are $375.
Peachtree Ball (Jan. 18, Union Station): Tickets cost $300.
Hispanic Inaugural Ball (Jan. 18, Omni Shoreham Hotel): General admission tickets are sold out, with VIP options up to $100,000.

These events showcase a mix of state, cultural, and philanthropic themes, appealing to diverse audiences celebrating the inauguration.

— President-elect Donald Trump plans to start one of the most sweeping deregulatory drives in U.S. history. Border czar Tom Homan says the incoming administration is assessing plans to launch post-inauguration immigration raids in Chicago after plans leaked in news reports about plans for a large-scale immigration raid in Chicago Tuesday.

— Trump has outlined a sweeping array of 31 major policy initiatives for his second term, according to the Washington Post (link). These include moves on immigration, such as mass deportations, reinstating a travel ban, and ending birthright citizenship. He also plans significant economic shifts, like imposing high tariffs on imports, cutting taxes, and promoting cryptocurrency. The list, according to the WaPo:

1. Immigration

Mass Deportations: Pledges to implement the largest deportation operation in U.S. history, including undocumented workers.
‘Remain in Mexico’ Program: Plans to reinstate policies requiring asylum seekers to wait in Mexico.
Travel Ban: Intends to reimpose restrictions on travelers from several majority-Muslim countries.
Birthright Citizenship: Proposes ending automatic citizenship for children of noncitizens.
Punish Sanctuary Cities: Plans to cut federal funding to cities refusing to cooperate with deportations.
Death Penalty for Migrants: Advocates for automatic death sentences for migrants who kill U.S. citizens.
Border Wall: Plans to complete construction of the U.S./Mexico border wall.

2. Economy

Tariffs: Proposes imposing tariffs on all imports and higher rates on goods from China, Mexico, and Canada.
Inflation: Vows to lower prices, including energy and gas costs.
Tax Cuts: Promises extensive tax reductions, potentially adding to the national debt.
Eliminate Taxes on Tips and Overtime: Suggests removing taxes on certain income sources.
Cryptocurrency: Aims to make the U.S. a global leader in cryptocurrency by adopting industry-friendly policies.

3. Education

Abolish Education Department: Proposes dismantling the department, redirecting its responsibilities elsewhere.
Punish Schools Over Content: Plans to cut federal funding for schools promoting “critical race theory” or “radical gender ideology.”
Transgender Policies: Seeks to ban trans athletes from women’s sports and revoke inclusive school policies.
School Vouchers: Advocates for taxpayer-funded school-choice programs.

4. Environment

Rollback of Regulations: Plans to remove policies addressing climate change and protecting species.
Oil and Gas Expansion: Proposes increasing domestic production and exports of fossil fuels.
Paris Climate Agreement: Intends to withdraw the U.S. from this global pact.

5. Healthcare

Lower Costs: Pledges to reduce healthcare and prescription drug expenses.
Preserve Social Security and Medicare: Promises to maintain these programs while cutting waste.
Abortion Laws: Plans to leave decisions on abortion to state legislatures.
Free IVF: Proposes covering in vitro fertilization costs.

6. Democracy and Governance

Retaliation Against Rivals: Suggests acting against political enemies and media outlets.
Reshape Federal Workforce: Plans mass job cuts, reduce union power, and make civil servants “at-will” employees.
Voting Requirements: Proposes stricter voter ID and citizenship proof, ending mail-in and early voting.
Pardon Jan. 6 Defendants: Pledges to pardon individuals charged in the Capitol riot.

7. Defense and Foreign Policy

Isolationism: Advocates for “America First” policies, including shutting out imports and withdrawing from international conflicts.
End Wars in Ukraine and Middle East: Claims he would end these conflicts quickly, potentially conceding to adversaries.
Military Diversity Policies: Plans to reverse diversity initiatives and restrict women in combat roles.
Strike Mexican Cartels: Proposes military action against cartels operating in Mexico.

These policies reflect significant shifts across numerous domains and have raised concerns about their feasibility and broader implications.

— Bipartisan pushback mounts against RFK Jr.'s nomination as HHS Secretary. Robert F. Kennedy Jr., President-elect Donald Trump's controversial pick for Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary, faces growing scrutiny as his confirmation hearings remain unscheduled, according to the Washington Post (link). Ethical delays tied to his financial disclosures have given critics, spanning the political spectrum, time to spotlight concerns over his record. Senators like Elizabeth Warren have posed hundreds of questions regarding Kennedy’s anti-vaccine activism and stance on abortion (Link to Warren letter), while conservatives question his commitment to their priorities. Public opinion remains sharply divided, and with a closely split Senate, Kennedy's path to confirmation is uncertain.

— The House this week will consider the Fix Our Forests Act, a bipartisan piece of legislation that aims to improve forest management and reduce the threat of catastrophic wildfires in the United States. The bill passed the House last September, but not the Senate.

Key provisions of the act:

Expedited environmental reviews: The bill streamlines the consultation process for the U.S. Forest Service and Bureau of Land Management, aiming to prevent delays in forest management projects.
Wildfire risk reduction: It uses fireshed mapping to prioritize the treatment of forests at the highest risk of wildfire.
Litigation reform: The Act aims to deter frivolous lawsuits by preventing courts from stopping projects unless substantial environmental harm can be proven.
Intergovernmental collaboration: The bill creates a new Fireshed Center composed of representatives from different agencies to inform suppression and management decisions.
Enhanced tools: It strengthens existing tools such as Good Neighbor Authority, Stewardship Contracting, and Shared Stewardship to support rural economies.

While the bill has received bipartisan support, it has also faced criticism. Some environmental groups argue that the Act could potentially bypass critical environmental laws and restrict scientific input and public engagement in forest management decisions.

OTHER EVENTS & HEARINGS

Monday, Jan. 20

Holiday. U.S. markets and gov’t offices are closed in observance of Martin Luther King Jr Day. The National Action Network holds a Martin Luther King Jr. Day march and rally "for justice, equality, and change."
President Joe Biden hosts a White House Tea for President-elect Donald Trump.
Inauguration. Donald J. Trump inaugurated as the 47th President of the United States in the 60th Inauguration hosted by the Joint Congressional Committee on Inaugural Ceremonies.
Nomination vote: State. Senate Foreign Relations Committee markup to vote on the nomination of Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) to be secretary of State.
Nomination vote: Homeland Security, OMB. Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee markup to vote on the nominations of Governor Kristi Noem (R-S.D.) to be Homeland Security secretary; and Russell Vought to be director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB).
Clean Fuels Conference 2025, through Thursday, San Diego.

Tuesday, Jan. 21

President Donald Trump attends a Presidential Inaugural Prayer Service. Washington National Cathedral.
Nomination hearing: VA. Senate Veterans' Affairs Committee hearing on the nomination of Douglas Collins to be Veterans Affairs secretary.
Nomination hearing: UN representative. Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing on the nomination of Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) to be U.S. representative to the United Nations.
Committee organization: Senate HELP. Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions (HELP) Committee meeting to organize for the 119th Congress.
House Rules Committee meeting to consider the Fix our Forests Act.
China/Australia relations. Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments virtual discussion on a new report, "Focused Force: China's Military Challenge and Australia's Response."
Tech policies. Information Technology and Innovation Foundation virtual discussion on "The Worst Tech Policies of 2024: How the New Administration and Congress Can Turn the Page."

Wednesday, Jan. 22

Nomination hearing: OMB. Senate Budget Committee hearing on the nomination of Russell Vought to be director of the Office of Management and Budget.
Nomination hearing: Transportation. Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee markup to vote on the nomination of former Rep. Sean Patrick Duffy (R-Wis.) to be Transportation secretary.
Committee organization: House Homeland Security. House Homeland Security Committee meeting to organize for the 119th Congress.
Committee organization: House Financial Services. House Financial Services Committee meeting to organize for the 119th Congress.
Committee organization: House Transportation and Infrastructure. House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee meeting to organize for the 119th Congress.
Committee organization: House Small Business. House Small Business Committee meeting to organize for the 119th Congress.
Committee organization: House Natural Resources. House Natural Resources Committee meeting to organize for the 119th Congress.
Trump administration outlook. Wilson Center's Wahba Institute for Strategic Competition discussion on "Strategic Competition in the Second Trump Administration."
Climate mitigation. Brookings Institution discussion on "How to Prepare for Climate Migration in the U.S."
Tax policy. House Ways and Means Committee hearing on "Matters Within the Committee's Tax Jurisdiction."
Immigration enforcement. House Judiciary Immigration Integrity, Security, and Enforcement Subcommittee hearing on "Restoring Immigration Enforcement in America."
Building U.S. highways. House Transportation and Infrastructure Highways and Transit Subcommittee hearing on "America Builds: Highways to Move People and Freight."
Cyber threats. House Homeland Security Committee hearing on "Unconstrained Actors: Assessing Global Cyber Threats to the Homeland."
Korean peninsula outlook. Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion on "What's Next for the Korean Peninsula Under Trump 2.0?"
Gaza ceasefire. Arab Center Washington, D.C. virtual discussion on "The Gaza Ceasefire Deal and the Trump Administration: Politics, Prospects, and Implications."
Trade policy. Hinrich Foundation forum, “Rethinking free trade: The new rules of global integration.”
Japan energy outlook. Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion on the "Institute of Energy Economics, Japan (IEEJ) Energy Outlook 2025: Energy, Environment, and Economy through 2050."

Thursday, Jan. 23

Nomination hearing: USDA. Senate Ag Committee hearing on the nomination of Brooke Rollins to be USDA secretary.
Nomination vote: VA. Senate Veterans' Affairs Committee markup to vote on the nomination of Douglas Collins to be Veterans Affairs secretary.
Nomination vote: EPA. Senate Environment and Public Works Committee markup to vote on the nomination of former Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-N.Y.) to be administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency.
Committee organization: House Appropriations. House Appropriations Committee meeting to organize for the 119th Congress.
U.S./China climate relations. Wilson Center discussion on "What's Next for U.S./China Climate Relations."
U.S. wireless technology. House Energy and Commerce Communications and Technology Subcommittee hearing on "Strengthening American Leadership in Wireless Technology."
Passenger rail network. House Transportation and Infrastructure Railroads, Pipelines and Hazardous Materials Subcommittee hearing on "America Builds: Examining America's Freight and Passenger Rail Network."
Tax reform. Cato Institute forum, "Principles for Tax Reform in the 119th Congress.”
Energy industry outlook. United States Energy Association 21st annual State of the Energy Industry Forum.

Friday, Jan. 24

Annual National March for Life, one of the largest pro-life demonstrations in the world, will be held in Washington, DC.
A Trump "victory rally" is scheduled at Capital One Arena.
District of Panda Party. The Smithsonian's National Zoo will begin its multi-day celebration welcoming giant pandas Bao Li and Qin Bao.

ECONOMIC REPORTS & EVENTS

The World Economic Forum takes place this week in Davos, Switzerland. A virtual appearance by President-elect Donald Trump is expected.

The upcoming earnings season is heating up, with major companies set to release their quarterly reports this week. High-profile earnings to watch include Netflix, Procter & Gamble, Johnson & Johnson, American Express, and Verizon. These reports will offer key insights into their financial performance and may influence market trends.

Monday, Jan. 20

World Economic Forum Annual Meeting, Davos, Switzerland; runs through Friday.
Bank of Canada issues business outlook survey

Tuesday, Jan. 21

Canada CPI
Speakers at Davos to include Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelenskiy and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

Wednesday, Jan. 22

Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations
Leading Indicators
ECB President Christine Lagarde and Governing Council members Francois Villeroy de Galhau and Klaas Knot speak at World Economic Forum in Davos.

Thursday, Jan. 23

President Donald Trump will join the World Economic Forum in Davos for an online “dialogue,” according to the forum’s president.
Jobless Claims
KC Fed Manufacturing
Fed Balance Sheet
Money Supply

Friday, Jan. 24

Bank of Japan meeting, at which policy makers are expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. The BOJ also publishes its economic outlook.
PMI Composite Flash
Consumer Sentiment
Existing Home Sales
Europe’s January PMI data will be closely watched following signs of a rebound in December.
ECB President Christine Lagarde and BlackRock CEO Larry Fink discuss the economic outlook on a World Economic Forum panel in Davos. ECB Executive Board member Piero Cipollone speaks in Frankfurt on digital currencies.

KEY USDA & INTERNATIONAL AG & ENERGY REPORTS & EVENTS

Ag focus: China’s third batch of trade data for December, including country breakdowns for commodities, will be published Monday. USDA on Friday releases its monthly food price update. The weekly Export Sales Report will come a day later (Friday) due to Monday’s holiday.

Energy focus: The annual meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos will run through the week, with energy transition and climate change among the topics to be debated by senior industry figures and politicians. Donald Trump, fresh from his inauguration, is due to address the gathering virtually.

Monday, Jan. 20

Ag reports and events:

China’s 3rd batch of December trade data, including country breakdowns for energy and commodities
Malaysia’s Jan. 1-20 palm oil exports