We've officially made it to April, one of the more active months for severe weather in Kentucky, and in timely fashion... Mother Nature looks to throw us a couple rounds over the next 36 hours. In short, the ingredients are there: we've got a source of lift, instability, and plenty of wind energy in place. However, it's still ultimately a complex forecast with some uncertainty still at play. I'll try to simplify as much as I can below.

Round 1

We've already seen some storms fire across Northern Kentucky this afternoon, but the main show arrives overnight and early tomorrow morning as a strong line of storms pushes east across the state. As it stands now, the Storm Prediction Center places the highest threat of severe weather along the Ohio River, where some Kentucky counties sit under an 'Enhanced Risk,' a level 3 out of 5 (map above). The primary hazard for this round will be damaging winds, but large hail and even some spin-up tornadoes within the line can't be ruled out. Make sure those weather radios are working properly!

Round 2

This is the more concerning round of the two, but there's plenty of uncertainty still at play. The main timing for this round would be tomorrow afternoon and evening. The Storm Prediction Center has most of Central and Eastern Kentucky under an 'Enhanced Risk' for severe weather, but you'll notice a sliver of Northern Kentucky is colored red. This indicates a level 4 out of 5, 'Moderate Risk'. We don't see this level too often throughout the year, which ultimately points to widespread severe storms. In this round, all modes of severe weather are very much on the table, which includes tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail (probabilities below).

The more concerning aspect of this round is that SIGNIFICANT severe storms are possible, shown by the dashed lines on the map. This is called a 'hatched' region. When looking at the tornado outlook, this would mean there is a 10% or greater probability of seeing a strong to violent tornado (EF2-5) within 25 miles of any point in that area. In the case of severe winds and hail, 'hatched' denotes a 10% chance of wind gusts exceeding 74 mph or hail two inches in diameter or larger.

However, this forecast is not yet set in stone. A lot will depend on weather conditions later tomorrow morning. If we still have clouds and showers hanging around, the severe threat will decrease. If the sun comes out, more fuel (instability) will be added to the fire. The bottom line is, we DON'T want to see the sun tomorrow!

Another point to mention is the possibility of excessive rainfall. Portions of Northern and Northeastern Kentucky are currently under a Flood Watch, where 1.5 to 2+ inches is in play. Remember... a WATCH means that flooding is POSSIBLE and conditions are favorable. In other words, we need to prepare for the potential of flooding. A WARNING means flooding is already occurring or imminent. In this case, it's time to take action if you're in a flood-prone area!

Prepare

Regardless of the outcome, preparing for the worst is essential, and there are two things you can do right now. First, identify your safe shelter. Simply put, you want to be in the lowest level of your house and the most interior room. The goal is to put as many walls between yourself and the outdoor environment. Below is a quick diagram from the National Weather Service showing the most suitable spots.

Additionally, mobile homes are NOT safe shelters. Find a sturdier location that's accessible ahead of time in case a warning is eventually issued. If you're in a vehicle, don't attempt to outrun a tornado. Find the nearest safe shelter.

Secondly, we need multiple sources to receive watches and warnings. This includes local television, weather radios, and weather apps. In some great news, the new app in the Ag Weather Center was just released on Google Play, making it available for both iOS and Android devices! If a watch or warning is in effect, you'll get a push alert sent straight to your phone. Click the links for installation. I've also included an image below if you'd like to share it with friends and family. It's all completely free with no ads! We'll have another Ag Weather Update coming out in the near future with more information about the app and the next phases!

Apple Store

Google Play Store

Bottom line, stay weather aware over the next 36 hours. I've included a link to the briefings from your local National Weather Service Office below. Following tomorrow, we cool down midweek and could even see some freeze warnings on Friday night across the eastern half of Kentucky.

Local NWS Office Weather Briefings

Western Kentucky: Paducah NWS

Central Kentucky: Louisville NWS

Eastern Kentucky: Jackson NWS