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#FROM THE DIRECTOR'S DESK#
Africa and the Path to Self-reliance
For decades, Africa’s growth model hinged on foreign aid, fostering dependence rather than development. As global donors retreat, African nations are confronting the hard business of self-reliance amid rising global trade wars, shrinking remittances, and shifting security dynamics. The African Continental Free Trade Area, launched in 2021, aims to knit together 54 countries into the world's largest free-trade zone, signaling a shift toward “trade not aid.” Industrialization drives and the rapid expansion of digital economies, particularly mobile money, reflect this new pragmatism. External forces like China’s tightened credit and the retreat of Western militaries have accelerated the urgency. With donor lifelines fading, Africa is no longer debating self-sufficiency—it is being forced into it, betting on internal trade, manufacturing, and homegrown solutions to secure a more stable future.
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Is Indonesia Destined to be a Footnote in Africa’s Growth Story?
Despite early ambitions to deepen ties with Africa, Indonesia risks becoming a minor player in the continent’s economic rise. Trade volumes remain low, investment is limited, and Jakarta’s outreach efforts have been sporadic compared to China, India, and Gulf states. Without a strategic shift, Indonesia’s engagement with Africa may remain symbolic, missing opportunities in one of the world’s fastest-growing markets.
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Trump Says U.S. Ships Should Have Free Use of Panama and Suez Canals
Donald Trump said U.S. ships should have unrestricted access to the Panama and Suez Canals, calling their use a matter of national interest. His remarks come amid rising global shipping costs and strategic competition over key maritime routes. Critics warn the proposal risks inflaming tensions with canal authorities and undermining longstanding international agreements.
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In a First, Egypt Conducts Military Drills with China, Signaling Closer Ties
Egypt held joint military drills with China for the first time, signaling a deepening defense relationship amid Cairo’s broader effort to diversify international partnerships. The exercises focused on counterterrorism and urban warfare, reflecting shared strategic interests. While Egypt remains a major U.S. military aid recipient, the move highlights its intent to balance ties with both Washington and Beijing.
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(Editorial) The Guardian View on Tunisia’s Democratic Regression: Burying Hope Where the Arab Spring Began
Tunisia, once hailed as the Arab Spring’s lone success story, continues its slide into authoritarianism under President Kais Saied. A decade after igniting hopes for regional democracy, the country now faces deepening repression, economic turmoil, and political isolation. Saied’s consolidation of power and dismantling of democratic institutions have buried the aspirations born in 2011, raising broader concerns about the future of political freedoms across North Africa.
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From Rafales to Railways: Egypt Walks Tightrope Between China, West
Egypt is carefully balancing its ties between China and the West, securing French Rafale jets and German railway deals while deepening economic cooperation with Beijing. Facing mounting debt and political pressure, Cairo seeks to diversify partnerships without alienating key allies. This strategy reflects Egypt’s broader bid to maintain strategic autonomy amid shifting global power dynamics.
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U.S. Approves $825M Stinger Missile Sale to Morocco
The U.S. has approved an $825 million sale of up to 600 Stinger surface-to-air missiles and related equipment to Morocco, marking a significant upgrade to the kingdom’s short-range air defense capabilities. The deal reflects Morocco’s ongoing efforts to modernize its military amid regional security concerns and growing competition from other arms suppliers. The Stinger system is designed to counter low-altitude aerial threats, including drones and helicopters. This acquisition follows Morocco’s recent procurement of advanced weaponry from the U.S., China, and Turkey.
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Egypt Says Set to Get $300 Million Budget Support from AIIB
Egypt is finalizing a $300 million budget support deal with the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, adding to its broader effort to stabilize finances after last year’s $57 billion bailout. The government is expanding debt-for-investment swaps, following the UAE’s $11 billion conversion deal and ongoing talks with Kuwait and Germany. Discussions with China are also underway for converting debt into interest-free loans. Egypt’s economy grew at its fastest pace in over two years, and recent privatization moves, including airport management contracts, are attracting new investor interest despite lingering credit challenges.
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BNP Paribas: The Egyptian Economy Remains Vulnerable Despite Positive Momentum
Egypt’s economy showed signs of recovery in early 2025, supported by a currency devaluation, external financing, and stronger remittance inflows. However, structural weaknesses persist, including high inflation, heavy debt burdens, and a reliance on volatile capital flows. Investment remains uneven, and fiscal pressures are mounting despite short-term gains. Long-term stability will depend on sustained reforms and broader private sector growth.
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Almost 9 GW of Utility-scale Solar Under Construction in Africa
Nearly 9 GW of utility-scale solar projects are currently under construction across Africa, signaling strong momentum in the continent’s renewable energy push. Egypt, South Africa, and Mauritania lead in capacity, with significant financing from international partners. The projects aim to address chronic power shortages and reduce dependence on fossil fuels. Implementation challenges remain, but the pipeline reflects growing investor confidence in Africa’s solar sector.
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Mauritania Partners with World Bank to Develop Mining Potential
Mauritania has secured World Bank approval for the DREAM project, aiming to enhance its mining and energy sectors. The initiative includes geological surveys to assess untapped reserves of uranium, gypsum, and phosphate, and supports the implementation of the Green Hydrogen Law to attract private investment. Additionally, the project will finance the country's first large-scale battery energy storage facility, leveraging solar and wind resources to improve electricity reliability. These efforts are part of Mauritania's strategy to diversify its economy and achieve universal electricity access by 2030.
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BRICS Ministers Agree to Advance Environmental Cooperation
At their April 2025 meeting in Brasília, BRICS environment ministers adopted a joint declaration committing to enhanced cooperation on climate action, biodiversity, and pollution control. The agreement outlines a 2024–2027 work plan with 50 initiatives, including efforts to combat desertification, reduce plastic waste, and promote ecosystem restoration. The bloc emphasized the need for increased climate finance from developed nations and reaffirmed support for the Paris Agreement.
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Libya, Minister Haweg to Nova: "No Duties on Imports from Abroad"
Libya’s Economy Minister Mohamed Al-Haweij announced that no customs duties will be imposed on foreign imports, aiming to stabilize domestic markets and lower consumer prices. The policy is intended to attract investment, boost trade flows, and ease supply shortages amid ongoing economic challenges. Authorities emphasized the move as part of broader efforts to revive Libya’s struggling economy.
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–▸ UPCOMING EVENT–
ARAB CENTER WASHINGTON DC
The Trump Tariffs and MENA Economies:
Implications of the Global Trade War
THURSDAY MAY 8, 2025 — 10:00 – 11:30 AM (EDT)
Next week, the Arab Center Washington DC will host a discussion on how renewed Trump-era tariffs could affect Middle East and North Africa economies. The event will examine potential disruptions to trade flows, investment risks, and supply chain vulnerabilities across key sectors. Analysts will assess how regional governments might adjust economic strategies in response to shifting US trade policies. The session will be livestreamed on the Arab Center Washington DC website.
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–▸ IN CASE YOU MISSED IT –
THE NORTH AFRICA INITIATIVE & MIDDLE EAST INSTITUTE SWITZERLAND (MEIS)
Russia’s Strategic Shift in North Africa
Last week, the North Africa Initiative (NAI) and Middle East Institute Switzerland (MEIS) hosted a timely discussion on Russia’s growing influence in North Africa and its implications for regional security, migration, and global geopolitics. Russia’s strategic pivot to North Africa—following setbacks in Syria—reshaped regional dynamics, from military deployments and disinformation campaigns to its exploitation of migration routes and illicit networks. The session explored a variety of key ares from military power projection to soft power strategies as well as Western and regional responses.
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ATLANTIC COUNCIL | EMPOWERME INITIATIVE
MENA’s Growth Prospects Amid Global Uncertainty with Citi’s MEA CEO Ebru Pakcan
At the Atlantic Council event, Citi’s Ebru Pakcan highlighted that the Middle East and North Africa region showed resilience amid global headwinds but faced uneven growth prospects. She pointed to strong performance in Gulf economies driven by diversification and investment, while others grappled with debt, inflation, and political uncertainty. Pakcan emphasized the need for deeper financial sector reforms, regional integration, and expanded digital infrastructure to sustain momentum.
| | Under the leadership of President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, Egypt has undergone profound transformations—economic, political, and social. In the first episode of this mini series, we unpack Egypt’s geopolitical landscape—how its strategic location has made it both a bridge and a buffer zone in a region gripped by conflict. To explore these issues in depth, we are joined by Dr. Abdallah Al Dardari, the United Nations Assistant Secretary General and the Director of the Regional Bureau for Arab States of the UNDP. |
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–▸ TRACKER –
GLOBAL ENERGY MONITOR
Global Hydropower Tracker
The Global Hydropower Tracker, maintained by Global Energy Monitor, catalogs over 3,900 hydroelectric plants worldwide with capacities of 75 MW or more, offering detailed data on project status, ownership, and capacity. As of April 2024, China leads in installed hydropower capacity, followed by Brazil, the United States, Canada, and Russia. Despite hydropower's role in supplying approximately 15% of global electricity, the sector faces challenges such as climate-induced variability in water availability and environmental concerns related to large dam projects. The tracker serves as a vital resource for policymakers and researchers monitoring the development and impact of hydropower infrastructure globally.
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–▸ SPECIAL INITIATIVE –
Africa Capital Hub
The Africa Capital Hub (ACH), launched by Bankers without Boundaries with backing from the Children’s Investment Fund Foundation and UBS Optimus Foundation, aims to mobilize $1 billion by 2030 for high-impact environmental and social projects across Africa . Operating in Kenya, Tanzania, Nigeria, and Rwanda, ACH provides financial structuring, technical assistance, and investor outreach to accelerate capital flows into sectors like energy, infrastructure, healthcare, and agriculture . Its tools include a custom Africa Finance Framework and a Neutral Capital Centre to blend public, private, and philanthropic financing . By addressing Africa’s $194 billion annual SDG funding gap, ACH seeks to boost investor confidence and scale sustainable development initiatives continent-wide .
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–▸ VISUALIZATION –
THE OBSERVATORY OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY
Gold in Mauritania
Gold is Mauritania’s top export, generating over $1.7 billion in 2022 and accounting for nearly 45% of total exports. The UAE dominates as the primary buyer, importing over 95% of Mauritania’s gold. Despite strong revenues, the sector remains vulnerable to global price swings and concentrated trade ties. Broader diversification and value addition remain limited.
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AFRICA CENTER FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES
Military Drone Proliferation Marks Destabilizing Shift in Africa’s Armed Conflicts
The rapid spread of drone technology across Africa is reshaping conflict dynamics, giving armed groups and fragile states new capabilities at low cost. Countries like Ethiopia, Nigeria, and Morocco have incorporated drones into military operations, while nonstate actors in Libya, the Sahel, and Somalia increasingly deploy them for surveillance and attacks. The influx of Chinese, Turkish, and Iranian drones has shifted battlefield advantages, often favoring groups with external backing over national governments. Weak regulatory frameworks and porous borders have made it easy for drones to flow into conflict zones. Their affordability and effectiveness are accelerating arms races among rival factions, destabilizing already fragile regions. Civilian casualties are rising, infrastructure is being targeted, and humanitarian access is shrinking as drones make wars more unpredictable. Without stronger controls and oversight, Africa risks facing a future where small, cheap technologies fuel protracted conflicts, erode state authority, and deepen insecurity.
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INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND | BLOG
How to Build Public Support for Energy Subsidy and Pension Reforms
Energy subsidies and pension spending consume significant portions of national budgets—averaging 1.5% and 4–8% of GDP, respectively—yet often fail to equitably benefit lower-income groups. To implement reforms effectively, governments are advised to phase in changes gradually, align them with periods of economic growth, and provide targeted compensation to vulnerable populations. Successful examples include Colombia’s two-year fuel price adjustment plan and Australia’s pension reforms coupled with increased benefits for low-income retirees. Transparent communication and active engagement with stakeholders are crucial to building public trust and support for these reforms. By reallocating savings from subsidies and pensions, countries can invest in more inclusive social programs and infrastructure, thereby enhancing fiscal sustainability and promoting long-term economic growth.
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WORLD BANK GROUP
Macro Poverty Outlook for Middle East and North Africa
The Macro Poverty Outlook (MPO) analyzes macroeconomic and poverty developments in 19 developing countries in Middle East and North Africa. The report is released twice annually for the Spring and Annual Meetings of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. The MPO consists of individual country notes that provide an overview of recent developments, forecasts of major macroeconomic variables and poverty during 2025-2027, and a discussion of critical challenges for economic growth, macroeconomic stability, and poverty reduction moving forward.
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INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND | REPORT
Fiscal Policy under Uncertainty
Global public debt is projected to exceed 95% of GDP in 2025, surpassing pandemic-era levels, with potential to reach 117% by 2027 under adverse scenarios. The IMF attributes this rise to factors such as increased defense spending, higher interest costs, and trade tensions. Fiscal deficits are expected to average 5.1% of GDP in 2025. The IMF recommends that countries implement gradual fiscal adjustments within credible medium-term frameworks to reduce debt and build buffers against heightened uncertainty.
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INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND | REPORT
World Economic Outlook: A Critical Juncture amid Policy Shifts
The IMF's April 2025 World Economic Outlook projects global GDP growth to slow to 2.8% in 2025, down from 3.3% in 2024, marking the weakest pace since 2020. This downgrade is largely attributed to escalating U.S. tariffs—some reaching 145%—which have triggered retaliatory measures from China and disrupted global trade flows. The U.S. economy is now expected to grow by 1.8% in 2025, a full percentage point lower than the previous year, with inflation pressures rising due to increased import costs.
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INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND | REPORT
Global Financial Stability Report: Enhancing Resilience amid Uncertainty
The IMF's April 2025 Global Financial Stability Report warns of escalating risks amid tighter financial conditions and heightened geopolitical tensions. Key concerns include overvalued asset prices susceptible to corrections, vulnerabilities in highly leveraged nonbank financial institutions, and potential turbulence in sovereign bond markets, especially in countries with substantial debt. Emerging markets face increased refinancing costs, while the probability of global growth falling below 0.4% has risen to 5%, nearly doubling from previous assessments.
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BOOK
Political Democracy for Morocco
Political Democracy for Morocco offers a powerful analysis of Morocco's social, political, and economic challenges, while addressing universal issues related to freedom, humanism, and collective responsibility. Serge Michel Bena offers a thoughtful critique of governance and injustices, while putting forward bold ideas for profound change.
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See the latest analyses and posts by FPI Senior Fellow & Executive Director of The North Africa Initiative (NAI)
Also, catch Hafed's latest and other columns in Arab News.
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You can contact the North Africa Initiative (NAI) by emailing:
Deputy Director
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The Maghreb Weekly is produced by the North Africa Initiative of the Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) Foreign Policy Institute with a focus on developments that impact the region's dynamics. This weekly digest includes an overview of the latest published research, studies and reports from think tanks and policy centers, covering long-term perspectives and analyses of North Africa's challenges and opportunities. | | Any views expressed in the articles above, as well as any errors, are solely those of the authors. | | | | |
