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In This Issue:
- Market Update: U.S. Long Grain Harvest Nears Completion
- Washington, D.C. Update
- South Louisiana Rail Facility Continues Expansion
- USRPA Visits Mexico City
- USRPA Mexico Promotional Campaign Increases Sales
- RMTC 2024 Headed to Cancun, Mexico
- 3rd Annual Ray Stoesser Memorial Scholarship: Application Open
- Photo from Rice Country
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Market Update: U.S. Long Grain Harvest Nears Completion | |
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Milling yields aren’t improving as harvest is wrapping up across the South. Field yields have remained strong, but it’s taking more paddy to meet the milled specs than originally anticipated, with the head yield settling in the lower 50s. It’s still tough to say exactly where prices will settle out, but with strong export and domestic demand, it won’t take long to transfer from a harvest-driven focus to a market-driven one. Storage and drying facilities, merchants, and mills are tempering recently harvested rice in an effort to maintain quality and hopefully milling yields. Storage space in northeast Arkansas is tight and a significant amount of rice is being stored in temporary bags on the ground. Many believe there is more rice than previously reported. The Mississippi River is near an all time low level, causing barging problems.
Haiti is our largest long grain milled market and is having a significant dispute with its border nation, the Dominican Republic. The construction of a canal on the Haitian side of the Dajabon River has caused such turmoil, cross border trade between Haiti and the DR has been closed. Haiti depends on the DR for a significant amount of its food, and this dispute is putting extreme pressure on an already tenuous situation. While the DR does not provide rice to Haiti, it does provide other staples in which rice can be a substitute. More to develop on this situation, but we may see a further increase of shipments to Haiti beyond the 28 TMT increase year over year we already have on the books.
In Asia, the big news is the augmented demand from Indonesia. We referenced it last week, but the implications have made its way through the market. Indonesia is the fourth largest consumer of rice in the world, and their quadrupling of imports on account of the El Niño and climate risk is putting pressure on an already tight market. With India out of the export market, Vietnam and Thailand have picked up the slack thus far. However, there is still room for a either a G2G transaction with India, or it’s possible China may come to the aid of BULOG, Indonesia’s purchasing arm. It’s important to note that of global stocks are now pegged at 167 MMT, and China accounts for 103 MMT, or just over 60%. China would have no problem committing to the volume if it becomes entirely necessary.
These factors force the global market to run up against a severe timing issue. India is expected to keep their export ban in place until at least the end of Q1 2024. All the while, they are building stocks at a rate much quicker than normal, which could result in a glut of available rice sometime after March 2024. While making a marketing plan based on the current fickleness of India’s rice availability has proven dangerous, waiting for them to unwind the ban could also prove catastrophic. This leaves prices in Vietnam at $630 pmt, nearly $40 premium to Thai prices at $585 pmt. The table is set for firm pricing through the end of this calendar year and into the first part of next, but all bets are off after that.
Prices in the Western Hemisphere are holding steady on account of global events as well, with U.S. export quotes remaining at $760 pmt. Uruguayan quotes rose as high as $750 pmt on tightened supplies, making U.S. the preferred supplier until the full harvest commences in March in the Southern Hemisphere. The numbers speak for themselves early this marketing year, as Long Grain milled export sales are up 46% vs. 2022 on strong business Iraq, Mexico, and Haiti. Long Grain rough numbers have buoyed 160% this year compared to last, with huge sales to Mexico, and strong demand from Nicaragua, El Salvador, Venezuela, and Ecuador.
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USRPA Joins Other Ag Groups Regarding Fertilizer Duties
USRPA joined with 62 other agricultural groups sending a letter to Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo urging her to recognize the current difficulties faced by farmers as she recalculates duties on phosphate fertilizer imported from Morocco.
In February 2021 Commerce called on the International Trade Commission (ITC) to implement duties of almost 20% on imported fertilizers from Morocco. The Mosaic Company, which manufactures fertilizers used in the U.S. and abroad, had filed a petition with the Commerce Department seeking the duties. The ITC found that Morocco and Russia had unfairly subsidized fertilizer production and voted in March of that year to impose the duties on Morocco in addition to similar duties on Russian imports.
This September, the U.S. Court of International Trade ordered the ITC to reconsider its previous decision on calculating the duties.
Commerce is expected to finalize its administrative review by November 1 and issue its remand determination by December 13.
Read the letter here.
House Speaker Uncertainty
It’s been nearly two weeks since Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) was ousted as Speaker and the House of Representatives has yet to elect his replacement. The last few weeks the House Republican Conference has scrambled to find a nominee with enough support to garner 217 votes to secure the Speakership. Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA) was the original nominee to be McCarthy’s replacement, but he withdrew his name from the Speaker’s race before a vote on the floor could even be called. Judiciary Chairman Jim Jordan (R-OH) followed as the second Conference nominee and failed to garner enough votes to become Speaker after two-floor votes. Jordan is now pausing, not withdrawing, his current campaign for Speaker. While there is some real and growing momentum at this point behind temporarily expanding Patrick McHenry’s power as Acting Speaker, that path forward has opposition and involves additional steps within the Conference or on the floor and is uncertain. Some of the other potential Speaker candidates being thrown into the conversation include Reps. Mike Johnson (R-LA), Kevin Hern (R-OK), Richard Hudson (R-NC), Tom Emmer (R-MN), Elise Stefanik (R-NY), Tom Cole (R-OK), Frank Lucas (R-OK). The Conference is fairly unlikely to revisit Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) at this point, but after the past two weeks, uncertainty remains there as well.
From a wider lens, House floor action remains frozen until a new Speaker can be elected, thus further creating backlog and uncertainty for the entire legislative process. Appropriations and Farm Bill reauthorization will be further delayed until this conundrum is solved.
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South Louisiana Rail Facility Continues Expansion | |
Incheon Bay arrives for SLRF to load 25k paddy rice for Mexico. | |
SLRF continues expansion, pouring foundation for 7500 tons of storage. | |
Left to right: Iris Figueroa, Chef Carlos Leal and Grace Wang | |
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As part of a series of promotional campaigns to promote U.S. rice in Mexico City this week, USRPA staff members Iris Figueroa and Grace Wang joined Chef influencer Carlos Leal in a training session for chefs using U.S. rice as its star ingredient.
More to come in next week's issue of The Rice Advocate.
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USRPA Mexico Promotional Campaign Increases Sales
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El Alazan Wholesaler's In-Store Promotions
During a 50-day promotional activation campaign in Mexico City, we promoted U.S. rice in collaboration with the importer Alazan across 21 stores. This resulted in the sale of 1,475 kilograms of rice.
We have confirmed the sell-out data with “Tiendas DZ”, who provided us with a comparative analysis against their average sales per store. On average, our promotional campaign led to a 14% increase in their sales during the activation period.
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Walmart In-Store Promotions
76 days of in-store activities were conducted through an intensive promotional activation campaign in 12 Walmart stores in the north of the country (Monterrey), including 2 Walmart Supercenters and 10 Bodega Aurrera outlets.
Our primary focus was on promoting the Schettino and SOS rice brands, two major importers of U.S. rice. The implemented strategies were designed to enhance product visibility on shelves and increase their appeal to customers.
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RMTC 2024 Headed to Cancun, Mexico | |
3rd Annual Ray Stoesser Memorial Scholarship: Application process is now open! | |
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In partnership with the US Rice Producers Association, the Stoesser family is offering a $5,000 scholarship to one deserving high school senior or current college student who is interested in or is currently pursuing a career in an agriculture-related field.
In addition to the monetary award, the selected recipient will serve as a student ambassador for USRPA in 2024 with an expectation of participating in at least two activities during the calendar year. The recipient will be invited to participate in various USRPA activities, including but not limited to Field Days, legislative activities, Texas Rice Council meetings, conferences, and more.
Specific criteria for selection:
- Applicants should have the intention of pursuing a career in an agriculture-related field. Applications will be accepted from high school seniors, college students, and/or college graduate students.
- In addition to completing the online application form, applicants should submit a self-produced video no longer than 5 minutes answering the following questions: What is your vision for the next generation of the U.S. rice industry? Please cover topics relevant to the future of the U.S. rice industry, such as food security/safety, sustainability, etc.
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The Missouri Rice Council participated in the Saint Louis Science Center's "Great SciFest" last Saturday, educating families about Missouri rice and letting kids explore rice sensory bins. The Saint Louis Science Center hosted 2700 visitors over the course of the day. | | |
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Food & Agriculture
Regulatory & Policy Roundup
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Grain: World Markets and Trade
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World Agricultural Production
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from MU Rice Agronomy
Vol. 1, No. 8
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January 17, 2024
Western Rice Belt Conference
El Campo, TX
More Information Soon
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January 30-31, 2024
27th Annual National Conservation Systems Cotton & Rice Conference
Jonesboro, AR
More Information
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February 10, 2024
Texas Rice Roundup
Richmond, TX
More Information Soon
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USRPA does not discriminate in its programs on the basis of race, color, national origin, gender identity, sexual orientation, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, or marital/family status. Persons who require alternative means for communication of information (such as Braille, large print, sign language interpreter or translation) should contact USRPA at 713-974-7423. |
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