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UPDATE: Yes, Vote No (at HOG)!


As proxy season started up a couple of months ago, we critiqued "vote no" or withhold efforts at AGMs (below). We expressed skepticism that these efforts would have an impact at most portfolio companies.


Well, along comes long-time activist H Partners to do just that at Harley-Davidson (HOG). They announced a formal withhold solicitation for the upcoming AGM that has a decent chance of succeeding.


HOG-H Partners illustrates well many of the ideas we explained before. News accounts report the boardroom intrigue. Here we examine the activist and corp gov angles to understand this particular withhold campaign and to guess how it might work out. We expect H Partners will get all or most of what it wants from this effort.


Lesser-known activist

H Partners manages about $650 million invested in just two public companies: FUN and HOG. It has held both for many years. A Harvard professor wrote a popular case study about the activist project at FUN. Its earlier activist efforts at SGI worked out well, too.


H Partners first invested in HOG in 2020. In 2022 HOG and H Partners agreed to add Jared Dourdeville of H Partners to the BoD. The agreement lapses a week after he leaves the BoD.


Things bumped along at HOG in the intervening three years. HOG share price is down about 40% since then.


Two weeks ago, a BoD dispute became painfully public when Dourdeville resigned from the BoD. We'll let others tell the story of the company's recent business successes and failures and the BoD drama. We're interested in the strategy and tactics for the activist situation.


Nominate when you can, withhold when you can't

Dourdeville resigned on April 5, after sending a letter to the BoD on April 1 objecting to the CEO recruiting process. The February 2 deadline for shareholders to notify HOG of intent to nominate directors had long passed.


H Partners could still escalate things, though. On April 16 it filed a preliminary proxy statement calling for shareholders to withhold votes for three incumbent directors: the CEO/BoD chair, the presiding director, and a third with 29 years on the BoD. It intends to solicit proxies in opposition to those three, rather than merely asking other shareholders to vote against them.


HOG has a majority vote standard. Thus, if a director fails to win a majority of the shares voting at the AGM, then they resign from the BoD. The BoD then has a choice:

  • If the BoD rejects the resignation, then the director needs to win a majority at the next AGM, or else automatically resigns.
  • If the BoD accepts the resignation, then the BoD can nominate a replacement.


No zombies at HOG

At most companies, directors that fail to win a majority become zombies. The BoD refuses the resignation and moves on. Sometimes it accepts it and appoints another batch of friendly directors sympathetic to management.


At HOG, the BoD would do so foolishly. H Partners has a decent chance of prevailing, given the dismal performance and erratic corp gov. Notably, H Partners succeeded at SGI with a similar withhold campaign that removed the CEO and two other directors. And, at the 2024 AGM, HOG directors received as low as 85% support and only 50% support in the say-on-pay vote.


At that point up to three directors will need to resign. HOG can accept this and choose their successors. Or, it can reject this and risk a thorough proxy contest in 2026. Even if HOG accepts the resignations and chooses successors, then H Partners might still oppose those successors (and others on the BoD) in a thorough 2026 proxy contest.


In other words, HOG will either

  • have three directors with at least a reasonable chance of losing their seats now, or
  • lose at least as much or more in a year.


H Partners isn't going anywhere, given how HOG dominates its portfolio.


H Partners has little reason to settle for less than all three resignations and a significant role in appointing successors. Sure, it might want to avoid the cost and hassle of soliciting proxies. And, success in the withhold campaign is not certain. Otherwise, it will almost certainly see at least one and as many as all three directors leave in a mere few weeks.


We expect HOG does or should know this. It has bigger problems than three directors losing their seats, namely finding a new CEO amidst what seems like serious divisions on the BoD, and of course the deteriorating business. A prudent path would involve settling this, including appointing a couple of directors from H Partners. That would, though, mean accepting a loss that few BoDs can stomach. We'll see soon enough whether they put shareholders ahead of their own pride and reputations.

Yes, Vote No? Maybe...


Let's say upfront: voting "no" or withholding votes on directors is a relatively weak way to influence a portfolio company. We're stubborn, so we prefer electing directors or amending bylaws. Binding acts work much better than non-binding, like opposing exec comp in an advisory say-on-pay vote or supporting even a well-conceived precatory proposal.


That said, around this time of the year, sometimes an investor might consider a "vote no" campaign. Here we explain some of the conditions where it might make some sense, and the questions and mechanics involved.


By "vote no" we mean an activist advocating other shareholders oppose one or more incumbent directors at a portfolio company, without nominating any competing directors. Proxy advisors so advocate frequently, many times after a BoD ignores a favorable (to an activist) vote on a precatory proposal. Activists do so much less often.


Direct and exempt

Activist have two ways to advocate for a no vote:

  • Direct solicitation: an activist solicits proxies from shareholders using its own proxy materials. It votes solicited proxies to oppose one or more incumbent directors, without nominating any competing directors.
  • Exempt solicitation: an activist urges shareholders to oppose one or more incumbent directors and vote accordingly on the company proxy card. The activist makes its case to shareholders publicly, relying on a standard exemption from SEC proxy solicitation rules.


Direct solicitation incurs the expense of proxy statement drafting and filing and of a proxy solicitor. It also wrests a little control over AGM vote counting, as we saw with the similar 14(a)-4 proposal solicitations (more below). Exempt solicitation incurs only the expense of drafting and filing the proper SEC form and maybe a news release.


Recent cases, usually futile

We saw a few proxy solicitation examples in the past few years.


  • ETFS Capital solicited proxies to oppose three directors at WT in 2024, reducing those directors' votes to 85% support, compared to nearly 100% for the other directors.
  • Blackwells (yes, them) solicited proxies to oppose all nine directors at AHT in 2024, with two (including the CEO and BoD Chair) receiving less than a majority, triggering mandatory resignation, which the BoD then refused.
  • Legion Partners solicited proxies to oppose two directors at GES in 2022, who then received materially less support from shareholders while still winning a majority of votes; the next year one of the two did retire from the BoD.


We also know of at least a couple of exempt solicitations, including BT Brands at NROM in 2024 and Land and Buildings at QTS in 2018. In both cases, shareholders reduced support for the directors as the activist advocated, but those directors still won a majority of votes and remained on the BoD.


Outside of direct solicitation, plenty of shareholders oppose directors each year, typically following the advice of proxy advisors. This tactic usually fails, leading to dozens of "zombie directors" at numerous companies.


Why even do this?

Given the inherent weakness in the approach and the subsequent failure to dislodge the incumbents in recent examples? Maybe you missed the deadline to file notice for director nominations, either because you decided to escalate too late or you just plain didn't get around to putting it together. Perhaps the company rejected such a notice and you don't want to litigate their decision. Up that point, after devoting resources to pressuring the company, you might want to continue your efforts rather than waiting a year or more.


A "vote no" campaign does assess shareholder sentiment. Even if an activist fails to defeat one or more incumbent, it sets them up for future pressure. Maybe significant-but-not-decisive opposition can lead to a successful actual proxy contest the next year. At least it puts the BoD on notice that shareholders want change, although any astute BoD should know that already.


While unlikely, a "vote no" campaign at a company with a majority vote standard for director elections has succeeded in booting one or another director. Have modest expectations, as more companies are like AHT than KIRK.


Maybe you want to put just a little pressure on a company. You don't want to truly challenge a BoD with competing director candidates, but merely want to send a mild signal. A "vote no" campaign would accomplish this. Again, we're stubborn so we don't understand why an activist would think about a company this way, but you might.


Finally, it seems simple and easy to consider including some form of "vote no" on a proxy solicitation for a shareholder proposal. These solicitations, under Section 14(a)-4 of the SEC rules, can pressure companies in new and clever ways, including gaining some control over the voting process. If a shareholder goes to the trouble of assembling a proxy solicitation for a solid precatory proposal or bylaw amendment, then why not include opposition to especially problematic directors?


The mechanics of a "vote no" campaign are not trivial. Of course, you need to prepare proxy materials (for a proxy solicitation campaign, not for an exempt one). While not as involved as ones with competing director nominees, you still include the rest of the information for a standard proxy statement and proxy card.


Also, a shareholder cannot literally check "no" on a ballot or proxy card. Most of the time, they indicate "against" or "withhold" for the director they oppose, instead of "for" or "support". By all means, the shareholder should not "abstain", which merely becomes not voting at all, rather than voting against the director or directors. Sometimes "withhold" actually means "abstain", so an activist must check the bylaws and past proxy statements to establish how the director vote operates. Earlier we explained in more detail these mechanics.


We might have missed one or another activist "vote no" campaign from the past few years, successful or not, so please let us know.

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For further information, or to discuss a specific activist situation, please contact:


Michael R. Levin

m.levin@theactivistinvestor.com

847.830.1479