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TUESDAY, MARCH 25, 2025

#FROM THE DIRECTOR'S DESK#

Water Scarcity and the Fracturing of North Africa’s Future

​North Africa faces severe water scarcity, with countries averaging less than 1,000 cubic meters of renewable freshwater per person annually, below the water poverty threshold. The region's arid climate and recurrent droughts, such as the 2022 event that depleted reservoirs and desiccated farmlands, exacerbate this issue. Water scarcity threatens economic stability and heightens social and political tensions. Shared aquifers and river basins necessitate cross-border cooperation; however, geopolitical disputes, like the Western Sahara conflict affecting the Bounaim-Tafna aquifer between Morocco and Algeria, hinder collaborative water management. Addressing water scarcity requires prioritizing water security and fostering regional cooperation to mitigate potential economic and political repercussions.​

Tunisia’s President Fires Another Premier as Economy Languishes

Tunisia’s President Kais Saied appointed Sarra Zaafrani Zenzri as the country's fourth prime minister in under two years, replacing Kamel Madouri amid ongoing political and economic instability. Saied, who consolidated power through constitutional changes in 2022, continues to avoid IMF negotiations, instead opting for central bank financing and loans from Saudi Arabia and Afreximbank. Although Tunisia’s credit rating improved slightly, its bonds remain risky with yields near 9.8%, reflecting deep financial vulnerability and persistent economic challenges stemming from the 2011 Arab Spring.

US‑Africa: Trump’s Minerals and Energy Plans, PEPFAR, AGOA on the Agenda for Congress

​

​The U.S. House Foreign Affairs Committee is examining strategies to reduce China's influence over African mineral resources, as President Trump considers a proposal from the Democratic Republic of Congo offering mining opportunities in exchange for assistance against the M23 rebel group. Concurrently, the future of the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) is uncertain, with significant funding cuts threatening global HIV/AIDS efforts. Additionally, the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which provides trade benefits to eligible African nations, is under scrutiny, with potential changes that could impact U.S.-Africa trade relations. ​

Tunisia Rescues 612 Migrants, Recovers 18 Bodies in Overnight Operations

​On March 17, 2025, Tunisia's national guard rescued 612 migrants and recovered 18 bodies off its Mediterranean coast following multiple boat capsizing. These incidents highlight Tunisia's role as a key transit point for migrants attempting perilous sea voyages to Europe. The country's economic and political challenges contribute to the increasing number of migrants embarking on these dangerous journeys. Despite efforts to curb departures, the frequency of such tragedies highlights the ongoing humanitarian crisis in the Mediterranean region.​

Libya-Italy: Controversies and Grey Areas on Abdul Ghani al Kikli's Visit to Rome

​The recent visit to Rome by Abdul Ghani al-Kikli, leader of Libya's Stability Support Authority, has sparked controversy due to allegations of his involvement in human rights abuses, including torture and forced disappearances. While some sources claim he is wanted by the International Criminal Court, there is no official confirmation of such a warrant. His presence in Italy, particularly after the contentious release of Osama al-Najem, another Libyan official with an ICC warrant, has intensified scrutiny over Italy's engagement with Libyan figures accused of serious crimes.

Tunisia Taps Four International Firms to Build 500 MW of Solar Projects

​Tunisia has awarded licenses to four international firms to develop solar farms with a combined capacity of 500 megawatts (MW), valued at 1.2 billion dinars ($386.31 million). French company Qair International SAS will construct two plants totaling 300 MW, while Voltalia, also from France, will build a 100 MW solar farm. Norway's Scatec and Japan's Aeolus, a subsidiary of Toyota Tsusho, will jointly develop another 100 MW project. These initiatives are part of Tunisia's broader plan to develop 1,700 MW of renewable energy capacity by 2027, aiming to reduce reliance on natural gas and save $200 million annually. The country targets generating 35% of its electricity from renewable sources by 2030. ​

Cassava to Upgrade Its Data Centers with NVIDIA Supercomputers to Drive Africa's AI Future

​Cassava Technologies plans to establish Africa's first AI factory by upgrading its data centers with NVIDIA supercomputers, starting in South Africa by June 2025, followed by expansions into Egypt, Kenya, Morocco, and Nigeria.This initiative aims to provide African businesses, governments, and researchers with advanced AI computing capabilities, enabling the development of local AI solutions while ensuring data remains within the continent.Leveraging its extensive fiber-optic network and energy-efficient data centers, Cassava will offer AI as a Service (AIaaS), supporting innovation across various sectors.

Tunisian Legal-tech Startup Juridoc Secures Funding Round

​Tunisian legal-tech startup Juridoc has secured funding from 216 Capital and Go Big Partners to accelerate the digitalization of legal services in Africa and the Middle East.Founded in 2021, Juridoc offers an AI-powered search engine that provides access to over 252,000 legal documents, including legislation and case law.The platform has facilitated more than 325,000 legal searches and serves over 4,000 paid users in Tunisia and Senegal.The new investment will support technological upgrades, database expansion tailored to new markets, and enhanced marketing efforts to increase platform adoption.

Chinese Textile Maker Sunrise to Build Two Plants in Morocco

​Chinese textile company Sunrise Group plans to invest $240 million to build two plants in Morocco, located in Fez and Skhirate. These facilities will produce yarn, fabrics, and clothing, aiming to reduce logistical costs for Moroccan manufacturers. The investment is expected to create 7,000 jobs and enhance the competitiveness of Morocco's textile industry. Currently, Morocco exports most of its textile products to Europe, with exports totaling $4.5 billion last year. 

Report: Morocco Ramps Up Solar Energy Efforts with Big Plans and Key Partnerships

​Morocco is intensifying its solar energy initiatives through large-scale projects and strategic partnerships. The country aims to generate at least 52% of its electricity from renewable sources by 2030. To achieve this, Morocco is developing solar installations in sun-rich southern regions and enhancing energy distribution to northern hubs. Additionally, the nation is exploring opportunities to export surplus renewable energy to neighboring countries, further solidifying its role in the regional energy market.​

IFC and Kazyon Strengthen Partnership to Boost Morocco’s Food Retail Sector, Create Jobs

​The International Finance Corporation (IFC) has extended a $30 million loan to Kazyon Group to support the expansion of Morocco's discount grocery retail sector. This investment aims to increase the number of retail stores and enhance warehousing capacity, creating over 3,000 direct jobs, particularly benefiting young people and women in rural areas. Established in 2023, Kazyon Morocco currently operates more than 150 discount retail stores and one distribution center, offering affordable groceries to low-to-middle-income consumers. This initiative aligns with IFC's strategy to develop a modern retail sector value chain in Africa, contributing to improved food safety and accessibility. 

World Bank Enhances Commitment to Human Capital Development in Morocco

​The World Bank has approved a $600 million loan to support Morocco's human capital development, focusing on health and social protection reforms. This initiative aims to expand mandatory health insurance, extend free coverage to vulnerable groups, and modernize healthcare services. This financing represents the third phase of the "Strengthening Human Capital for a Resilient Morocco" program, building upon previous efforts to generalize compulsory health insurance and launch comprehensive social assistance programs.

France-Algeria: "The Only Point of Reference is Macron," Says Algerian President Tebboune

​Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune has identified French President Emmanuel Macron as the primary figure for mending strained bilateral relations. Tensions have escalated due to disagreements over immigration policies and France's recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara. Despite these challenges, Tebboune emphasizes the importance of direct dialogue with Macron to navigate the complexities of their shared history and current diplomatic issues. ​

THE DEBRIEF

Uncovering North Africa: Economic, Geopolitical & Social Developments

Umar Zafar | NAI Research Assistant

Development & Oversight by Lana Bleik | Deputy Director of NAI

Renewable Energy Transition in North Africa

Challenges & Prospects

The following report provides a comprehensive analysis of the renewable energy transition in North Africa. It examines the challenges, opportunities, and future trajectories of Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, and Egypt, emphasizing the significance of regional cooperation, policy implementation, and strategic investments for a successful energy transition. 

Egypt

–SUMMARY– –LARGE SCALE PROJECTS HINDERED BY GRID CONSTRAINTS & NATURAL GAS DEPENDENCE–

Egypt leads North Africa in renewable energy, holding 45% of the region's wind power capacity and 80% of its solar capacity. Despite this, it faces an energy crisis due to high demand and heavy reliance on natural gas, which made up 79.3% of its 2022 energy generation. The country plans to increase renewable capacity to 14 GW by 2028, with 5 GW by 2025. By 2035, Egypt aims for 42% of its energy from renewables, with solar and wind contributing most of the total.

Morocco

–SUMMARY– -STRONG POLICIES & MAJOR PROJECTS, YET CONTINUED RELIANCE ON COAL-

Morocco has emerged as a regional renewable energy leader since 2009, targeting 52% renewables in its energy mix by 2030 despite historically relying on fossil fuels for 96% of consumption. Current capacities include 1,770 MW hydro, 2,071 MW wind, and 831 MW solar. To meet its goals, the country is expanding institutional partnerships and investment frameworks while addressing gaps in grid infrastructure, market access, and workforce training to sustain sector growth.

Algeria

–SUMMARY– -SLOW PROGRESS WITH PROMISING RECENT DEVELOPMENTS-

Algeria’s state-driven economy remains heavily reliant on hydrocarbons despite efforts to adopt renewables domestically. While targeting 22 GW of renewable capacity by 2030, the country missed its 2020 interim goal of 4.5 GW, with projections suggesting renewables may only account for 1% of the energy mix by 2050. Accelerating progress requires simplified regulations, increased transparency in project bidding, and improved access to renewable technologies for local consumption.

Tunisia

–SUMMARY– -HIGH AMBITIONS CONSTRAINED BY FINANCIAL AND INSTITUTIONAL LIMITATIONS-

Tunisia struggles to meet domestic energy demand, relying heavily on imported natural gas, with Algeria supplying 50% of its imports in 2023. The country aims to source 35% of its electricity from renewables by 2030, up from an original 30% target. Tunisia is also focused on developing a green hydrogen export sector, though water-intensive production raises sustainability concerns. To achieve its renewable goals, Tunisia needs alternative financing options and small-scale community-based energy projects.

Libya

–SUMMARY– –WEAKEST PERFORMER DUE TO POLITICAL INSTABILITY & INFRASTRUCTURE DEFICITS–

Since the 2011 conflict, Libya has struggled with political instability and weak institutions, hindering its energy sector's development. Despite announcing a decarbonization plan and renewable energy strategy, progress is uncertain. Libya has significant solar potential, with 3,200 annual sunlight hours and 6 kWh/m² daily solar radiation, but political and security challenges limit foreign investment. The country aims for 10% renewable energy in its mix by 2025, though implementation remains slow.

Produced by the North Africa Initiative, the section above offers analysis grounded in expert research, institutional reports, and scholarly perspectives. It examines the region's economic trends, geopolitical dynamics, and social transformations, providing informed insights on North Africa's evolving landscape.

INSTITUTE FOR RESEARCH & STUDIES ON THE ARAB & MUSLIM WORLD | BI-ANNUAL SEMINARS

Geopolitics of the Maghreb

March 18 — May 20, 2025 | 06:30 PM to 08:30 PM

The Maghreb, i.e., Mauritania, Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, and Libya constitutes a vast area bordering the rest of the Arab world and the Sahel and an immediate neighbor of the European Union, separated only by the Mediterranean. Since their independence in the 1950s and 1960s, these countries continue to face significant challenges, particularly economic, political and security, which directly affect their stability as well as their development prospects. The objective of this seminar is to study the main components of these challenges while attempting to restore them, both in their immediate context – national and regional – as well as in all the much broader ones – globalization, in particular – which make the Maghreb a necessary actor in world developments.

Classes are held in French.

PERSPECTIVES

GEOPOLITICAL INTELLIGENCE SERVICES (GIS)

—ANALYSIS—

Libya is Caught in an Ever-deepening Vicious Circle

​Since 2011, Libya has grappled with persistent political instability following Muammar Qaddafi's ousting. The nation remains divided between the Tripoli-based Government of National Unity, led by Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh, and the Tobruk-based Government of National Stability, supported by Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar's Libyan National Army. This fragmentation has led to stalled national elections, with the December 2021 polls postponed indefinitely due to ongoing conflicts. Armed groups have consolidated power, engaging in activities like oil smuggling, which undermine state authority and economic stability. Despite these challenges, local governance shows promise; for instance, municipal elections in November 2024 saw a 74 percent voter turnout across 58 municipalities. However, the second round of these elections, initially set for February 2025, has been delayed without a new date. The United Nations has attempted to mediate, appointing multiple envoys and proposing initiatives such as forming an advisory committee to resolve electoral issues and establish a roadmap for national elections. Yet, these efforts have struggled to achieve lasting solutions. The UN Security Council's Resolution 2769, adopted in January 2025, extended the mandate of the Panel of Experts on Libya and authorized actions against the illegal export of Libyan petroleum, aiming to curb illicit activities fueling the crisis. Nonetheless, Libya's political landscape remains volatile, with entrenched divisions and external influences complicating the path toward stability and unified governance.​

CHATHAM HOUSE | KALAM

How Haftar’s Focus on Southern Libya Relates to a Growing Regional Strategy

​Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar's recent focus on southern Libya is part of a broader strategy to consolidate control over the region's resources and enhance his political influence. By securing the south, Haftar aims to dominate key oil fields and trade routes, thereby strengthening his position in Libya's fragmented political environment. This move also aligns with his efforts to counter rival factions and assert authority over the entire country. Additionally, Haftar's southern campaign seeks to address security concerns, including the presence of armed groups and illicit activities, which have destabilized the area. By establishing a stronghold in the south, Haftar not only gains economic advantages but also positions himself as a central figure in Libya's future governance.​

WASHINGTON INSTITUTE FOR NEAR EAST POLICY (WINEP)

Are Tunisia and Iran Really Growing Closer?

​Despite recent diplomatic gestures, such as President Kais Saied's May 2024 visit to Tehran and the announcement of a joint economic commission, Tunisia and Iran's relationship remains largely superficial. Economic ties are minimal, with Tunisian imports from Iran totaling $1.4 million in 2022, down from $4.8 million in 2015, and exports plummeting from $12.58 million in 2014 to just $80,000 in 2023. Security cooperation is virtually nonexistent, and cultural connections are modest, given that Shia Muslims constitute less than 1% of Tunisia's population. Tunisia's recent anti-Western foreign policy shift under Saied may explain its diplomatic overtures toward Iran, but these actions do not indicate a significant strategic alliance.

WASHINGTON INSTITUTE FOR NEAR EAST POLICY (WINEP)

New Gas Licenses Go Ahead on the Israel-Lebanon Maritime Border

​On March 17, 2025, Israel awarded exploration licenses to a consortium comprising BP, SOCAR, and NewMed Energy for natural gas exploration in Block 1, located over 100 miles off Israel's northern coast near the maritime boundaries of Cyprus, Israel, and Lebanon. This development follows the 2022 maritime agreement between Israel and Lebanon, mediated by the United States, which resolved long-standing border disputes and enabled exploration in previously contested areas. The consortium has a three-year window to conduct seismic surveys to assess the presence of commercially viable gas reserves. If successful, this could enhance Israel's energy independence and export capabilities, particularly to neighboring Egypt.

AFRICA CENTER FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES

Mapping China’s Strategic Port Development in Africa

​Chinese state-owned enterprises are actively involved in 78 port projects across 32 African countries, serving as builders, financiers, or operators. This involvement is most pronounced in West Africa, with 35 port developments, followed by East Africa (17), Southern Africa (15), and North Africa (11). These strategic investments enhance China's influence over critical maritime trade routes and may facilitate an expanded naval presence on the continent. The concentration of port projects in West Africa aligns with China's broader Belt and Road Initiative, aiming to strengthen trade and geopolitical ties. This extensive engagement underscores China's commitment to deepening its economic and strategic footprint in Africa.​

SYNAPS NETWORK

Drying Out, Drinking Up

​The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region faces significant water scarcity, with eight of the world's ten most water-stressed countries located there. Despite this, water consumption remains high due to historically low pricing and cultural practices. Gulf Cooperation Council nations, lacking permanent rivers, rely heavily on desalination, which is both costly and environmentally harmful. Agriculture consumes vast amounts of water, often for export-oriented crops, while outdated irrigation methods and infrastructure exacerbate inefficiencies. These challenges stem from mid-20th-century policies that promoted cheap water and large-scale irrigation projects, leading to unsustainable usage patterns. Addressing these issues requires comprehensive reforms in water management and economic diversification to ensure long-term sustainability.​

CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE

Egypt’s Challenges and Opportunities in Climate-Related Finance and Governance

​Egypt's susceptibility to climate change is intensified by its economic difficulties, hindering its capacity to finance climate resilience and sustainability initiatives. The nation faces environmental challenges such as reduced freshwater availability from the Nile River and increased flooding risks along its Mediterranean and Red Sea coasts. Rising temperatures, irregular rainfall, and extreme weather events have adversely affected agriculture, impacting both human and ecological systems. Despite efforts to balance public and private sector roles, Egypt's governance framework has limited civil society and private sector participation, restricting opportunities for climate-related projects. Persistent fiscal deficits, reliance on domestic banking for financing, and fluctuating foreign direct investment further constrain the country's ability to fund green initiatives. Additionally, Egypt's foreign debt has escalated to approximately $160 billion, with a significant portion allocated to infrastructure rather than climate adaptation. Addressing these challenges necessitates comprehensive governance reforms, enhanced transparency, and strategic investments to effectively tackle climate risks.

WORLD BANK | BLOG

Integrity and Transparency of Spending and Security in Sub-Saharan Africa. Are they the Missing Links?

​In Sub-Saharan Africa, security expenditures have surged, notably in Mali and Burkina Faso, where spending increased by 66% and 138% respectively over the past five years. Despite these investments, violence persists, with civilian casualties rising since 2019. This paradox highlights systemic issues within security institutions, including corruption, nepotism, and mismanagement of resources. For example, Somalia achieved a 50% cost reduction by reforming procurement processes and implementing biometric soldier registration. Such measures reflect the necessity for improved governance and transparency to ensure that increased security spending effectively enhances stability and development in the region.​

THE WILSON CENTER

Empowering Women to Support Morocco’s Industrial Transformation

​Integrating women into Morocco's industrial workforce is essential for the nation's economic advancement.Despite educational achievements, women face systemic biases in sectors like agribusiness, where employers often favor male candidates for roles involving physical labor and irregular hours.This exclusion not only limits individual career prospects but also hinders national productivity and innovation.Addressing these disparities through policy reforms and cultural shifts is crucial for fostering sustainable and inclusive growth in Morocco.​

REPORTS & PUBLICATIONS

REGIONAL ECONOMIC SERVICE DE RABAT | NEWS BRIEF

Morocco Brief

On the menu this week:

• Economic Situation: Bank Al-Maghrib lowers its key rate again; last review International Monetary Fund; Tax reform preset by the Direction Générale des Impôts

• Sector: Ranking of African powers in terms of renewable energies by International Energy Agency (IEA); the establishment of the UM6P - University Mohmmed VI Polytechnic in STATION F; OCP Group results; fisheries agreement and wheat trade with Russia

• Donors: Loan of USD 600 million The World Bank for social protection; IFC - International Finance Corporation 's support for Egyptian hard discounter Kazyon; EUR 110 million from the EBRD on Nador West Med; The World Bank Blue Economy Program

POLICY CENTER FOR THE NEW SOUTH | REPORT

The Water-Energy Nexus: The Path to Solving the Water Crisis in the Middle East and North Africa

MENA faces a severe water crisis, with 12 of the world’s 17 most water-stressed countries. Climate change, population growth, inefficient water management, and weak governance drive this challenge. Water production, treatment, and distribution require high energy inputs, while energy generation depends on water for cooling and refining. The region must integrate renewable energy, especially solar power, into water solutions like desalination. Inaction could shrink GDP by up to 14% by 2050, while a $500 billion investment over the next decade could secure water resources.

BOOK

Un Crime D'ētat

Farid Alilat's book investigates the assassination of Krim Belkacem, a key figure in the Algerian revolution and signatory of the Evian Accords of March 1962, which ended 132 years of French presence in Algeria. On Tuesday, October 20, 1970, Krim Belkacem's body was found in room 1414 of the Intercontinental Hotel in Frankfurt, Germany. He bore signs of strangulation. In the room, two belts, a bouquet of flowers, and an ashtray containing Algerian cigarette butts were discovered. In the bathroom, a broken light bulb from a powerful anesthetic was found. Thus begins the investigation into this state crime, which unfolded between Algiers, Rabat, Paris, Geneva, Lausanne, Beirut, Düsseldorf, and Frankfurt.

RECRUITMENT

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United National Development Programme

National Justice Analyst

DROSOS Foundation

Programme Manager - Morocco & Tunisia

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Stay informed.

Stay ahead.

See the latest analyses and posts by FPI Senior Fellow & Executive Director of The North Africa Initiative (NAI)

Hafed Al-Ghwell

Also, catch Hafed's latest and other columns in Arab News.

You can contact the North Africa Initiative (NAI) by emailing:

Lana Bleik

Deputy Director

CONTRIBUTORS

Muhammad Umar Zafar

JHU SAIS MAIR Student & NAI Research Assistant

Daniel Weinstein

JHU SAIS MAIR Student & NAI Research Assistant

The Maghreb Weekly is produced by the North Africa Initiative of the Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) Foreign Policy Institute with a focus on developments that impact the region's dynamics. This weekly digest includes an overview of the latest published research, studies and reports from think tanks and policy centers, covering long-term perspectives and analyses of North Africa's challenges and opportunities.