THE TTALK QUOTES 

On Global Trade & Investment
Published Three Times a Week By:
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No. 69 of 2018
WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 21, 2018

Click here for Monday's quote from Vice President Pence. 
 USMCA - ACTION BEFORE THE NEW YEAR?

"It is still possible for the current Congress to consider and vote on the USMCA before the end of the 115th Congress ... ."   
 
Sen. Pat Toomey
and 11 Other Senators 
November 20, 2018 
CONTEXT
Yesterday, November 20, Senator Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania and eleven other senators, all Republicans, sent a letter to President Trump urging him to work towards Congressional approval now for the new NAFTA, the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).  That means this year.  Next year, of course, there will be a new Congress, the 116th.  Democrats will control the House, and things will be different.  Senator Toomey elaborated on that thought in an article in today's Wall Street Journal.  He wrote:

"Entrusting House Democrats with passing the USMCA is a dicey proposition at best.  Many of the newly elected Democrats ran on opposition to all things Trump ... ."

As Senator Toomey sees it, the President faces a tough choice.  He can either "make further trade restricting concessions," and hope that will be enough to get House Democrats to okay the pact next year; or, alternatively, he can

"make protrade modifications in the implementing legislation and enact the USMCA under a Republican controlled Congress before the end of this year.  I urge him to choose the latter."

Of the two documents, Senator Toomey's op-ed focuses on the political reasoning behind the push for USMCA now, while the letter from the 12 Republican Senators lays out the legal requirements.  We usually just quote excerpts from the documents we highlight.  Yesterday's letter from the Senate 12, however, deserves to be quoted in its entirely, and here it is:

November 20, 2018

Dear Mr. President:

We are writing because we stand ready to assist in helping you secure a pathway to Congressional consideration of the recently concluded United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) this 115th Congress.
We are concerned that if the Administration waits until next year to send to Congress a draft implementing bill, passage of the USMCA as negotiated will become significantly more difficult.

It is still possible for the current Congress to consider and vote on the  USMCA  before the end of the 115th Congress, and do so by using Trade Promotion Authority's procedural protections, including a simple majority vote in the Senate. Your administration can preserve the option of passing the agreement this session by submitting to Congress as soon as possible and before November 30th-a copy of the final legal text of the agreement and a draft statement of administrative action as required by Sec. 106(a)(l)(D) of the Bipartisan Congressional Trade Priorities and Accountability Act of 2015 (P.L. 114-26). These documents can be transmitted to Congress at any time, including prior to the agreement being signed, and on any calendar day. This step would also start the clock on a mandatory 30-day waiting period before a draft implementing bill may be submitted to Congress on a day when both chambers are in session.

If you choose to pursue consideration of the USMCA before the end of the 115th Congress, we commit to working with you in a consultative manner to draft implementing legislation that could win our votes, as well as a majority in the House and Senate.

Thank you for your consideration of this request. We stand ready to assist in helping you secure USMCA passage this Congress.

Sincerely,

Sen. Pat Toomey [Pennsylvania]
Sen. Lamar Alexander [Tennessee]
Sen. Steve Daines [Montana]
Sen. Deb Fischer [Nebraska]
Sen. Jeff Flake [Arizona]
Sen. Ron Johnson [Wisconsin]
Sen. Jon Kyl [Arizona]
Sen. James Lankford [Oklahoma]
Sen. Mike Lee [Utah]
Sen. Rob Portman [Ohio]
Sen. Ben Sasse [Nebraska]
Sen. Ten Cruz [Texas]
COMMENT
The logic of the documents cited above - Senator Toomey's op-ed and the letter from the 12 senators - is compelling.  We are inclined to hope that the Administration's takes the advice offered.  It would be so nice to begin 2019 with one of the big questions roiling American trade policy answered, at least for a while.

On this eve of Thanksgiving we'll make the large if not heroic assumption that the Trump administration accepts the argument that they should push for House and Senate votes on USMCA this year.  That still leaves a staggering number of key questions. For example:

What about the House leadership.  Will Speaker Paul Ryan and Ways and Means Chairman Kevin Brady push for a vote on USMCA this year?

How strong is the support for the USMCA in the House Republican caucus?  A review of the history of this whole project suggest there may be some serious misgivings on issues like investor-state dispute settlement and government procurement, to name but two.

Is there any sentiment in the Democratic party for getting it done this year?  If there is, there is hope.  If not, it will be awfully difficult.

And is there really enough time?  The Senate letter lays out a theoretically doable timetable, but it means cutting things very, very close.  As a rule, Congress doesn't work that way.  (On the other hand, as then-Speaker Pelosi reminded the world many years ago, the TPA constraints are the rules of the House and the Senate, and they can be changed.)

Finally, the lobbyists - business, labor, the environmentalists, all of them - are they ready to fight this out now?  Our guess is that those who are planning to oppose the agreement will be as effective as ever, whether this year or next.  The question is, will business be up to the challenge of making a strong, pro-USMCA case to Congress and the public in the few short weeks before the new year?  Senator Toomey described USMCA as "a mixed bag."  Our impression is that many in the business community share that view, and it is hard to be a cheerleader for a mixed bag.  Not impossible, but hard.

But we are getting ahead of the story.  Where there's a will, there's a way.  That brings us to the question, is the administration willing to pick up the do-it-now banner and run with it? If they are, we wouldn't bet against them.   
SOURCES & LINKS
The Letter is a photocopy of the letter from twelve United States senators encouraging President Trump to submit the text of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement by the end of this month with a view to having it voted on in the current Congress.  This was the source for today's featured quote. 

A Dicey Proposition takes you to Senator Toomey's opinion piece in today's Wall Street Journal mentioned above. 

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