Update: The Impact of COVID-19

#33 — October 9, 2020

Early October Rent Collections and Vaccine Special Report

Dominium has been focused on our business and operations during this pandemic crisis. As we move past the critical rent collection part of each month, we will focus our updates on information that we have found useful in the work we are doing. We hope that our friends and partners in affordable housing find it helpful as well and will send other information our way as well. A collection of all previous updates can be found at COVID-19 Impact Update.

Rent Collections—October Early Results

October opens consistent with previous months and slightly up from September.

As of October 7, we have collected 78% of total charges for the month.

Cumulative receipts are up 1% compared to September
Cumulative receipts are down (6%) compared to August
Cumulative receipts are down (3%) compared to July

In terms of types of properties or receipts:

Resident receipts are at 78.7%, which is up 3% compared to September through the 7th and down (3%) compared to August through the 7th. They are down (2%) compared to August 7th, 2019, the most recent month in which the 1st fell on a Thursday.
Subsidy receipts are at 76%, which is down (8%) compared to September through the 7th and down (16%) compared to August through the 7th. They are down (5%) compared to August 7th, 2019.
Senior total receipts are 95%, which is up 5% compared to September through the 7th and down (2%) compared to August through the 7th. They are up 3% compared to August 7th, 2019.
Family total receipts are 75%, which is up 3% compared to September through the 7th and down (4%) compared to August through the 7th. They are down (3%) compared to August 7th, 2019.

The chart below shows the distribution of properties on their collection performance in October through the 7th. Out of the 207 properties, 20 have collected less than 57% of October charges representing $0.4M remaining to collect while 34 properties have collected over 93% representing $0.1M remaining to collect.

The lowest collection category is primarily made up of Section 8 properties which are impacted by timing with changes between resident and subsidy owed charges. The below distribution excludes these properties and follows the expected trends.

Previous Dominium Rent Reports can be found here.

Vaccine Update—7 Months into Development

Given that a vaccine is critical to moving people and the economy back to some level of normalcy, we have compiled a number of articles that outline the state of development, types of vaccines, COVID-19 treatment, and testing protocols.

The New York Times has an up-to-date vaccine tracker that provides details on every vaccine currently in testing. As of September 30th, eleven vaccines are in Phase 3 and five vaccines are approved for early or limited use. The five approved vaccines are in China and Russia and were approved before Phase 3 results have come in prompting experts to warn of serious risks. The tracker lays out what each phase of vaccine development entails as well as the type of vaccine being developed by each company.

Some vaccines are genetic, which means that the vaccine will deliver coronavirus “genes into our cells to provoke an immune response.”

Some genetic vaccines currently in development include the following: Moderna, BioTech/Pfizer, Zydus Cadila, CureVac, Imperial College London among numerous others.

Other vaccines are viral vector vaccines, which means that the vaccines “that contain viruses engineer to carry coronavirus genes. Some… enter cells and cause them to make viral proteins. Other[s]… slowly replicate, carrying coronavirus proteins on the surface.”

Some viral vector vaccines include CanSino Biologics, Johnson & Johnson, AstraZeneca and University of Oxford, Reithera and others.

Protein-based vaccines contain the proteins (whole proteins or fragments of proteins) of the virus, but no genetic material.

Some protein-based vaccines include Novavax, Anhui Zhifei Longcom, Sanofi, University of Pittsburgh, Covaxx, among others.

Inactivated or attenuated coronavirus vaccines use weakened coronaviruses or viruses that were killed with chemicals.

Sinovac Biotech, Sinopharm, and Institute of Medical Biology at the Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences are among some of these vaccines.

Lastly, a few developers are using repurposed vaccines that may already be in use to fight other diseases.

Murdoch Children’s Research Institute is the most notable in Phase 3 currently, whereas others are still in clinical trials with Bandim Health Project, Crown Coronation, the BADAS Study among others.

Bloomberg reports that early treatments of COVID could help bridge between now and the time a vaccine is ready for distribution. Dr. Fauci said that the US may have nearly 700 million doses of the vaccine by April 2021. As no vaccine has yet been proven to prevent COVID-19, doctors are also looking towards antiviral medications to help quell the spread of the virus.

Johnson & Johnson’s vaccine released promising news last week that it may only require one shot and does not need to be frozen to remain viable. The company is optimistic that they will know if they’re vaccine is effective by the end of 2020. Other vaccine makers Sanofi and Novavax are just behind Johnson & Johnson in preparing their vaccines. Soon Johnson & Johnson will be releasing data from earlier phases of their trial online. As described by The New York Times, “Johnson & Johnson’s vaccine uses an adenovirus to carry a gene from the coronavirus into human cells. The cell then produces coronavirus proteins, but not the virus itself. These proteins can potentially prime the immune system to fight off a later infection by the virus.”

Early results for the Johnson & Johnson vaccine show promising results with a strong immune response. Almost all 800 participants in the Phase 1/2a trial produced an immune response to the single dose of the vaccine. Twenty-nine days after getting vaccinated, 99% of participants between the ages of 18 and 55 developed antibodies. Johnson & Johnson will now study 60,000 participants worldwide in the next trial of the vaccine. This is the only vaccine in the US using a single dose.

National Geographic discussed the numerous vaccines currently in developments and highlights the ones to watch. Globally, more than 150 vaccines are being developed. National Geographic highlights the Johnson & Johnson, Moderna Therapeutics, Pfizer, University of Oxford, Sinovac, Sinopharm, Murdoch Children’s Research Institute, CanSino Biologics, and The Gamaleya National Center of Epidemiology and Microbiology. They discuss who the developer is, the name of their vaccine, how the vaccine works, and its status of development. Spanning from China, Russia, Australia, the UK, Germany and the US, each vaccine differs slightly and National Geographic links to articles explaining how Moderna’s mRNA vaccine work and how vaccines have worked throughout history.

Nature has reported concerns that forthcoming results from vaccine trials may show disappointing results by not clearing safety trials, or that approval process will be or will appear to be influenced by politics. Various researchers have called for more transparency in the trial process, citing halts in the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine trial that weren’t released until after the fact.

Nature reports the WHO and The National Academies of Science, Engineering and Medicine (NASEM) has released preliminary guidance for vaccine allocation, given the reality that a vaccine will be in short supply after its first approved as manufacturers scale up production. While the WHO guidance is still in early stages, the guidance from NASEM is in the form of a five-tiered rollout of the vaccine as the available supply increases:

healthcare workers and first responders (5% of the population)
elderly people and people with underlying conditions with high risk of severe COVID infections (10%)
essential service workers at high risk and people with underlying conditions that put them at moderate risk (30-35%)
young adults, children and essential service workers at increased risk of exposure (40-45%)
all remaining residents (5-15%)

The Wall Street Journal notes that late stage vaccine trials currently need to contract COVID-19 in order to assess it and determine if each vaccine can be cleared. For each of the major late stage vaccines, the minimum numbers that would need to get sick for Johnson & Johnson is 154, for Pfizer is 164, AstraZeneca is 150, and Moderna is 151 people. Initial data in the Moderna and Pfizer studies could be available as early as late October or November.

Forbes writes about the four vaccines in the final stages of clinical trials in the US with one more on its way. Dr. Fauci is optimistic that a vaccine will be available at the end of 2020, but he said that one vaccine may prove more effective in the older part of the population compared to the younger part of the population. The article also includes a recorded interview from the JAMA Network (The Journal of the American Medical Association) discussing COVID trends around the world and a more in-depth conversation about vaccines.

Invio Pharmaceuticals Inc. had to put their vaccine trial on hold due to questions by US regulators last week. The company did not share details of the questions asked by the FDA that put phase 2/3 on hold other than the questions related to the “delivery device used in administering the shot.” Their DNA-based vaccine was showing promising results, although no DNA-based vaccine has ever made it to market.

Market Watch details the four coronavirus vaccines in late-stage studies, which include Johnson & Johnson, AstraZeneca and University of Oxford, BioNTech and Pfizer, and Moderna Inc. These late stage trials vary in terms of how the vaccines work from protein vaccines, nucleic acid vaccines, and viral vectors. Johnson & Johnson’s vaccine is the only one that would need a single dose in the US. BioNTech and Pfizer and Moderna’s vaccines need to be refrigerated to nearly freezing levels. AstraZeneca’s vaccine will also likely require refrigeration, but not freezing. Refrigeration has been an issue in the past with vaccine development and can become an impediment even in industrialized countries.

In China, Sinovac has administered vaccines to workers at state-owned companies, to government workers, and to vaccine company staff outside the norm of traditional testing processes. This raises questions internationally about issues of consent and the safety of widespread inoculation before the clinical trials are complete.

One hundred fifty-six countries have joined the global vaccine program, but not the US and China. This vaccine alliance aims to have 2 billion doses available by the end of 2021. The US declined to participate, and China is still undecided. Although, US funding for vaccine development, research, and manufacturing may have a global impact. The goal of this global vaccine program is to ensure that countries that are middle to lower income have access to a vaccine and not left out in the race to protecting their citizens.

The FDA is expected to announce tougher standards for the COVID-19 vaccine making it unlikely that a vaccine will be approved by Election Day. This is an attempt to assure the American public that the vaccine that is eventually approved by the FDA is safe.

Moderna’s vaccine showed promising results in producing immune responses in older adults during Phase 1 study. The New England Journal of Medicine published the findings this week. Chief Medical Officer at Moderna said, ‘Given the increased morbidity and mortality of COVID-19 in older and elderly adults, this data give us optimism in demonstrating mRNA-1273’s protection in this population, which is being evaluated in the Phase 3 COVE study.”

Ten countries in Asia, South America, and the Middle East have struck a deal with Russia for their vaccine with the potential of 10 additional countries interested in purchasing it. Before it was approved, the vaccine (named Sputnik V) was tested on 76 volunteers and it showed an immune response. However, experts suggest that it be tested on a larger scale before its effectiveness can be determined. Trials on 40,000 volunteers started at the end of August. The US is unlikely to use Russian or Chinese vaccines due to “doubts over testing procedures.” Thoughts are that this vaccine could cause Russia to gain geopolitical leverage over non-Western countries.

In an attempt to share what we know and are doing during this crisis, we are publishing a set of periodic updates for our partners and friends in affordable housing. We likely will do this twice a month or as interesting events dictate. Please let us know if you would like to be removed from this list.

Thank you,

Paul Sween & Mark Moorhouse

DOMINIUMAPARTMENTS.COM