Update: The Impact of COVID-19
#19 — May 26, 2020
Dominium has been focused on our business and operations during this pandemic crisis. As we move past the critical rent collection part of each month, we will focus our updates on information that we have found useful in the work we are doing. We hope that our friends and partners in affordable housing find it helpful as well and will send other information our way as well. A collection of all previous updates can be found at  COVID-19 Impact Update .
Rent Collections
Dominium Rent Collection Report: Through May 25, 2020 we have collected 94% of charges for the month.

  • Cumulative receipts are flat compared to April through the 25th.

  • Cumulative receipts are up 1% compared to November 25th, 2019, the most recent month with the 1st falling on a Friday.

In terms of types of properties or receipts:

  • Resident receipts are at 93%
o Flat compared to April through the 25th.
o Flat compared to November 25, 2019.

  • Subsidy receipts are at 96%
o Flat compared to April through the 25th.
o Up 6% compared to November 25, 2019.

  • Senior total receipts are 98%
o Down (1%) compared to April through the 25th.
o Flat compared to November 25, 2019.

  • Family total receipts are 92%
o Flat compared to April through the 25th.
o Flat compared to November 25, 2019.
This chart shows the distribution of properties on their collection performance in May through the 25th. Out of the 211 properties, 29 have collected less than 80% of May charges representing $0.3M remaining to collect while 72 properties have collected over 96% representing only $0.2M remaining to collect.
The lowest collection category is primarily made up of Section 8 properties which are impacted by timing with changes between resident and subsidy owed charges. The below distribution excludes these properties and follows the expected trends.

Previous Dominium Rent Reports can be found here.

LeaseLock shows that mid-May rent payments remain steady, only 7 percentage points below pre-COVID averages. They note that Class C properties are struggling with a 26% drop from the average.
Housing News
Bloomberg states that the ban on evictions is hurting landlords, who owe lenders more than $1 trillion combined. Nearly half of all 43 million rental units in the US are owned by small businesses, not collecting on rent will cause a ripple effect as “both renters and property owners will slide down the socioeconomic scale together.”

Multifamily construction declined by 25% between March and April due to COVID-19, according to Dodge Data & Analytics. Compared to the first four months of the year in 2019, total construction starts were 8% lower in 2020.

Freddie Mac TEL had a select sponsor update call last week with the Head of Multifamily and the Senior Vice President Production and Sales to discuss market observations, pipeline and political updates, as well as the status of Freddie during the pandemic. Freddie is cautiously optimistic and is starting to hit a “more normal” phase. See notes taken by Mark Lambing.

The OCC has released a new rule to modernize the Community Reinvestment Act, which will apply only to national banks and thrifts, as the FDIC declined to support it.

The Visual Capitalist has put together occupational risk scores of numerous different occupations. Using attributes from the US Department of Labor, they determine that social distancing is a luxury available to 29% of Americans with a majority of at risk making less than $50,000 a year.
Economic &
Employment News

Tech company, Thomas, surveyed one thousand manufacturers in North American and are reporting that nearly two-thirds are thinking of returning sourcing and production to the continent, or “reshoring”, due to the pandemic.

In normal recessions, banks will make cuts to save costs. However, Reuters reports that US banks are spending more and do not plan to alter budgets or staff levels. Many are focusing on taking care of their employees during this time.

Reuters explores the effects of nearly $3 trillion over the last two months on the US economy during the pandemic. Returning to normal life will take “more time, effort and money” than originally thought with no clear end in sight.

This paper by University of Chicago economists estimates that 42% of recent layoffs will result in permanent job losses. It also posits that recovery will be slower due to a failure to quickly reallocate resources to the most productive activities post-COVID-19 shock. This will perhaps be exacerbated by policy issues such as subsidizing employee retention, unemployment benefits exceeding worker earnings, occupational licensing restrictions, and regulatory barriers to business formation.
Pandemic News
Dr. Michael Osterholm discusses smart testing, effects of COVID-19 on children, and risk of transmission outside in this week’s episode of the Osterholm Update: COVID-19.
CIDRAP has put out a report on Smart Testing for COVID-19. The infographic on the right shows their keys for success in testing for COVID.

Early trials of Moderna’s highly anticipated human coronavirus vaccine is showing promise with some participants producing antibodies.
The CDC Response Team published an article reporting findings based on data from China, Italy, and the US. They found that individuals with underlying health conditions, such as cardiovascular disease, diabetes, chronic lung disease, are at higher risk for severe cases of COVID-19 than those without such health conditions.

The CDC’s tracker of confirmed cases of and deaths from COVID-19 across the US provides the most up to date information on the spread of the virus.
IHME’s COVID-19 Projections page shows trends and projections of deaths and hospital resource usage. The graph on the right shows their projection for daily infections and testing:

Erin Bromage, a Comparative Immunologist and Professor of Biology at the University of Massachusetts Dartmouth, wrote a blog post titled, The Risks – Know Them – Avoid Them, which breaks down information about coronavirus from how much is released in the environment, where people are getting sick, and the role of asymptomatic people in the virus’ spread.

Based on a study by Columbia University on other coronaviruses, immunity does not always last. However, it is unknown whether COVID-19 will follow this trend. This study explores other coronaviruses and compares them to what is known about COVID-19.
Other Interesting & Helpful Resources
The Points Guy breakdown international travel restrictions country-by-country following the coronavirus pandemic. Since the outbreak, very few countries are open to tourism and travel is currently not recommended. They outline each country’s plan to reopen borders to international travelers. 

This article from the New England Journal of Medicine explains how the two broad types of models, forecasting and mechanistic, of the Virus work, as well as their strengths and weaknesses to keep in mind when using them to make decisions.
State-by-State Actions
Schools:  Education Week

Reopening Status:

Construction Limits:
Resident Resources

Freddie Mac offers a Renter Helpline, which provides counseling for renters on budgeting, credit improvement and debt management. The attached flyer is available in multiple languages.

HUD provides this guide and FAQ for Renters during the pandemic.
IRS Information on COVID-19 Checks 
Information on filing for unemployment
In an attempt to share what we know and are doing during this crisis, we are publishing a set of periodic updates for our partners and friends in affordable housing. We likely will do this twice a week or as interesting events dictate. Please let us know if you would like to be removed from this list.

Thank you,
Paul Sween & Mark Moorhouse