Update: The Impact of COVID-19 |
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Dominium has been focused on our business and operations during this pandemic crisis. As we move past the critical rent collection part of each month, we will focus our updates on information that we have found useful in the work we are doing. We hope that our friends and partners in affordable housing find it helpful as well and will send other information our way as well. A collection of all previous updates can be found at COVID-19 Impact Update.
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Rent Collections: New COVID-19 Relief Continues to Help Residents
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Our Mid-February collections indicate that what we saw at the beginning of the month is continuing: the new COVID-19 relief payments to residents are helping them stay current with their rent. Collections are up from the levels we saw throughout the fall of 2020 when COVID-19 relief had completely disappeared.
Through February, 15th 2021, we have collected 86.3% of resident charges. Resident receipts are:
- Up 2% compared to January 2021 through the 15th.
- Up 4% compared to December 2020 through the 15th.
- Up 3% compared to November 2020 through the 15th.
- Down (3%) compared to July 2019 through the 2nd, the last month to begin on a Monday.
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Subsidy: Cumulative subsidy receipts for the month are 88% collected, which is:
- Down (9%) compared to January 2021 through the 15th.
- Down (4%) compared to December 2020 through the 15th.
- Down (4%) compared to November 2020 through the 15th.
- Down (4%) compared to July 2019.
Total Receipts: Cumulative receipts for the month are 31% collected, which is:
- Down (0.4%) compared to January 2021 through the 15th.
- Up 2% compared to December 2020 through the 15th.
- Up 1% compared to November 2020 through the 15th.
- Down (3%) compared to July 2019 through the 15th.
Receipts at Senior properties are 96% collected, which is:
- Up 2% compared to January 2021 through the 15th.
- Up 1% compared to December 2020 through the 15th.
- Up 1% compared to November 2020 through the 15th.
- Up 1% compared to July 2019 through the 15th.
Receipts at Family properties are 84% collected, which is:
- Up 2% compared to January 2021 through the 15th.
- Up 4% compared to December 2020 through the 15th.
- Up 4% compared to November 2020 through the 15th.
- Down (4%) compared to July 2019 through the 15th.
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The chart below shows the distribution of properties on their collection performance in February 2021 through the 15th. Out of the 200 properties, 23 have collected less than 70% of February 2021 charges representing $0.5M remaining to collect while 33 properties have collected over 96% representing $0.1M remaining to collect.
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The lowest collection category is primarily made up of Section 8 properties which are impacted by timing with changes between resident and subsidy owed charges. The below distribution excludes these properties and follows the expected trends. |
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Previous Dominium Rent Reports can be found here.
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The NY Times reports the job growth following the start of the pandemic is stalling according to the latest Labor Department Report, US employers added only 49,000 new jobs in January. The private sector added only 6,000 new jobs, and then unemployment rate fell to 6.3% from 6.7% in December, which not only reflects the jobs gained but also hundreds of thousands of workers leaving the labor force.
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CBRE Released its US Multifamily Figures Q4 2020, which showed, among other metrics, rent in Q4 declined by 1.6% for the quarter and 4.2% from Q4 2019, net absorption for Q4 was 55,600 units, down from 90,300 in Q3, and vacancy rate was up to 4.5% from 4.4% in Q3. CBRE noted that all of these metrics, while seeming negative at first, showed the multifamily market outperformed recent expectations given the winter season and the recession. The report also highlighted the Mountain West region as the highest performing in terms of YoY rent growth, followed by the Midwest and Southeast.
Reddit has become an unemployment tool for those with issues or questions about receiving unemployment benefits. Reddit readers can reach out on r/Unemployment forum and other users have been able to answer common questions about benefits may have stopped. As those who have been unemployed due to the pandemic try to navigate a complicated system of state and federal unemployment benefits, they have turned to the internet to help. The forum typically received fewer than 10 posts a day pre-pandemic, but now receives almost 1000 posts a day. As of early February, nearly 70,000 people are subscripted to the forum.
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A Brookings paper examines the differences in the economic impact of COVID-19 on different cities. They find that those cities with core industries dependent on the movement of people faced much higher unemployment, and that the hardest hit areas have larger Hispanic or Latino communities. They conclude by advocating for targeted programs in the stimulus package and argue that many of the programs in previous packages were insufficiently targeted to people and regions that were most effected.
The latest Bloomberg Recovery Tracker shows that the economy is generally continuing to make modest strides in recovery. Metrics like job postings, jobless claims, demand for homes and movement are all improving over prior weeks as the US is distributing vaccines to over 1 million Americans per day. The chart below shows the changes in various metrics week over week compared to pre-pandemic levels:
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Dominium has created a tool for employees to find access to the vaccine. Please visit the intranet site to locate where each state is at with their vaccine status, who eligible recipients are, and where to find vaccination distribution sites.
Scientists are concerned that the UK variant is mutating and state that it may end up sweeping across the globe. Director of the COVID-19 Genomics UK consortium, Sharon Peacock, says that the vaccines are currently effective against the variants in the UK, but “what’s concerning about this is that the 1.1.7 variant that we have had circulating for some weeks and months is beginning to mutate again and get new mutations which could affect the way that we handle the virus in terms of immunity and effectiveness of vaccines.” The British variant is one of three that are concerning scientists, the others are the South African and Brazilian variants. The British variant is more infectious, but not necessarily more deadly.
The MIT Technology Review has a report evidence so far suggests that COVID vaccines reduce but not eliminate asymptomatic spread of COVID-19. The vaccines have been shown to reduce the amount of virus in infected patient’s airways, which reduces both symptoms and the ability to spread the virus.
As administration of the vaccine begins, questions are arising as to what to do with leftover and unused doses at the end of each day. Vowing to leave no doses behind, companies are keeping employees and others on standby to receive leftover doses if they become available. On February 11th, one million doses were distributed by the federal government to 6,500 pharmacies nationwide. Doses that come out of cold storage, that either go unclaimed by people who do not show up for their appointments or are just left over, will expire within hours leaving pharmacies trying to figure out what to do. Some states have rules for vaccine eligibility and providers can be penalized for vaccinating an ineligible person.
The February 11th episode of the Osterholm Update: COVID-19 discusses the latest on the COVID variants, trajectory of the pandemic given inconsistent public health messaging across the country, how to prioritize the first vaccine doses, and the safety of visiting the doctor or the dentist during the pandemic.
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IHME has changed their daily infections and testing to project the trajectory of infections based on easing mandates and closures and universal mask wearing.
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Other Interesting & Helpful Resources |
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State-by-State Actions
Reopening & Closing Status:
Construction Limits:
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Millennials are buying cheap old houses outside major metropolitan areas for more space and to save money. Followers of Instagram accounts like CheapOldHouses over the past year have doubled weekly, with many of the houses available for under $100,000. Founder, Elizabeth Finkelstein, said, “the mantra of real estate has always been ‘location, location, location.’ For the first time that’s being flipped a little bit on its head.” Reuters reports a net 70,000 people left the New York City metro last year, which equates to nearly $34 billion loss in income. As more offices embrace remote working, young people may say “maybe I don’t need to be paying more than half my income in rent.”
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Fannie Mae put together a “Here to Help Renters” resource guide. It includes tips for talking to your landlord, top things to know, and options for those in need of financial assistance. Other resources are linked to HUD, CARES Act, and state and local resources.
Freddie Mac offers a Renter Helpline, which provides counseling for renters on budgeting, credit improvement and debt management. The attached flyer is available in multiple languages.
HUD has put together a guide and FAQ for Renters during the Pandemic.
Family Housing Fund has put together resources for households impacted by COVID-19, ranging from legal help, utilities, food, unemployment insurance and more.
Housing Link has provided tips for emergency assistance in the Twin Cities with contact information by county.
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Family Housing Fund has put together resources for households impacted by COVID-19, ranging from legal help, utilities, food, unemployment insurance and more.
Housing Link has provided tips for emergency assistance in the Twin Cities with contact information by county.
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In an attempt to share what we know and are doing during this crisis, we are publishing a set of periodic updates for our partners and friends in affordable housing. We likely will do this twice a month or as interesting events dictate. Please let us know if you would like to be removed from this list.
Thank you,
Paul Sween & Mark Moorhouse
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