Update: The Impact of COVID-19
#37 — December 23, 2020
Dominium has been focused on our business and operations during this pandemic crisis. As we move past the critical rent collection part of each month, we will focus our updates on information that we have found useful in the work we are doing. We hope that our friends and partners in affordable housing find it helpful as well and will send other information our way as well. A collection of all previous updates can be found at COVID-19 Impact Update.
Rent Collections—Consistent Level of Challenge Continues
Through December 21st, 2020 we have collected 85.9% of resident charges for the month and 87% of total charges for the month. Total receipts are:
  • Down (1%) compared to November through the 21st, 
  • Down (1%) compared to October 2020 through the 21st,
  • Down (2%) compared to September 2020 through the 21st, and
  • Down (4%) compared to December of 2019 through the 21st.
Subsidy receipts are 92% collected, which is:
  • Down (1%) compared to November 2020 through the 21st,
  • Down (1%) compared to October 2020 through the 21st, 
  • Down (4%) compared to September 2020 through the 21st, and
  • Down (1%) compared to December 2019 through the 21st.  

Receipts at both Senior properties are 96% collected, which is:
  • Down (1%) compared to November 2020 through the 21st,
  • Flat compared to October 2020 through the 21st, 
  • Down (1%) compared to September 2020 through the 21st, and
  • Down (2%) compared to December 2019 through the 21st.  

Receipts at Family properties are 86% collected, which is:
  • Flat compared to November 2020 through the 21st,
  • Down (1%) compared to October 2020 through the 21st, 
  • Down (2%) compared to September 2020 through the 21st, and
  • Down (5%) compared to December 2019 through the 21st.  
The chart below shows the distribution of properties on their collection performance in December 2020 through the 21st. Out of the 203 properties, 20 have collected less than 67% of December 2020 charges representing $0.4M remaining to collect while 31 properties have collected over 96% representing $0.1M remaining to collect.
The lowest collection category is primarily made up of Section 8 properties which are impacted by timing with changes between resident and subsidy owed charges. The below distribution excludes these properties and follows the expected trends.
Previous Dominium Rent Reports can be found here.
Housing & Employment News
NMHC released their December rent tracker noting that 75.4% of apartments made full or partial payment through December 6th. They note that this is a decrease of 7.8% since the same time last year, and a 4.9% percent decrease from November 6, 2020. They also held a webinar with Antonio Marques, managing partner of Comunidad Partners, on December 8th.

As eviction moratoriums end December 31st, Brookings notes that due to the lack of federal assistance, cities will need to provide rent relief programs. They break down different policy choices a city could make based on who is eligible for relief, how to ration funds, application processes, and how municipal rent relief programs interact with other local housing programs. Often one-time grants will not be enough especially for those who were experiencing housing insecurity prior to the pandemic.

MRI Software released their Market Insights looking at the impacts of COVID-19 on the multifamily industry. They found that even in uncertain times for many residents in apartment homes, many were “proactive with their situation, choosing to move out as opposed to piling up arrears.” Move-ins are just below levels from 2019, and although traffic remains high, applications are underperforming. Payment volumes are up 19% over the last year with many residents making card payments.

US weekly jobless claims are at a three-month high due to new COVID-19 restrictions put in place as a result of surging case numbers across the country. Initial jobless claims increased by 23,000 for the week ending on December 12th finishing at 885,000 claims, the highest level since September. This is still well above jobless claims peak during the Great Recession from 2007-2009 at 665,000.

Economists in the Centre for Economic Policy Research Publication COVID Economics built a model to estimate the impact on productivity, housing, and jobs if the 2020 surge in working from were to continue after the pandemic. They find that workers on average would move to small interior cities, but jobs would continue to increase both in smaller and larger localities. The impact of this on productivity and wages is shown to depend on how telecommuting workers respond to less face-to-face communication.

Market Watch reports that job seekers have changed their preferences in response to the pandemic, and now are more likely to seek positions with large, established companies perceived as being more likely to survive the crisis. Job seekers are also willing to accept lower wages and relocation requirements than they were pre-pandemic.
Economic News
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit record highs on the 17th with optimism of a new stimulus bill outweighing the rise in jobless claims due to the pandemic. Technology stocks performed best, with utilities and material shares also seeing gains in anticipation of a new stimulus bill.

The New York Times put together nine visual representations of how the US economy is “actually doing.” The workforce has lost more than 4 million people between February and November. Economic gaps are widening between demographic groups, with the unemployment rate of black men at 11.3% compared to only 6.2% of white men. The Census Bureau Household Pulse Survey indicated that 12.7% of households are experiencing food insecurity compared to 9.1% experiencing housing insecurity. Housing costs are rising causing some 52% of 18-29-year-olds to live with at least one parent, the highest level since the Great Depression.

Economists in the Center for Economic Policy Research Publication COVID Economics estimate the value of a vaccine capable of ending the coronavirus pandemic at 5-15% of global capital stock, using a model based on stock market trends as vaccine news has been released, and various industries’ exposure to being impacted by COVID.
Pandemic News
On December 16th, the US saw its deadliest day with a record of 3,580 deaths recorded. The total number of hospitalizations also rose for the 19th straight day. A total of 232,255 cases were recorded on Wednesday taking the US total number of cases to 17 million. The US is also leading in the total number of deaths due to coronavirus at 307,767.

Coronavirus deaths have been compared to other major events throughout history and we are on track to lose as many Americans as those lost during WWII. During 2020, we have lost over 300,000 Americans, from 1941-1945 we lost 407,317 Americans. Every 38 seconds, ninety-four Americans test positive for COVID-19 and one dies.

As the US surpassed 300,000 coronavirus deaths, the first Pfizer vaccine was administered to front-line healthcare workers on December 14th. Officials anticipate vaccinating 20 million Americans to get the first of the two-shot vaccine by the end of the month. The first 2.9 million doses will be given to healthcare workers and residents and staff of long-term care facilities. It is still recommended to social distance and wear masks as the US is seeing 2,500 deaths, and more than 200,000 new cases a day.

Vice President Mike Pence and his wife Karen received their coronavirus vaccine on live TV Friday morning. He said, "Karen and I hope this step today will be a source of confidence and of comfort to the American people," and that the way through this pandemic is through "vigilance and a vaccine."

Bloomberg is tracking how many people have been vaccinated around the world and is also following the nine most promising vaccines globally. Nearly 1.1 million people in four different countries have received the first shots. As of Friday, December 18th, nearly 50,000 doses of the Pfizer vaccine have been administered in 24 US states. The number of doses will increase dramatically over the next few days. By Bloomberg’s count, nearly 8.9 billion doses have been set aside for countries around the world.

The FDA approved the Moderna vaccine for emergency use late Friday night. This vaccine began distribution of its 5.9 million doses around the country over the weekend and could be administered as early as the 21st or 22nd. Unlike the Pfizer vaccine, the Moderna vaccine does not need to be kept in extreme cold. States are hoping to send the vaccine to rural hospitals and local health departments.

The New York Times put together an interactive vaccine line tool that helps readers understand where they may fall in line when it comes to vaccine distribution. Based on one’s age, county of residence, profession, and COVID related health risks, it can be determined how many people across the US, your state and county are ahead of you in line for the vaccine.

The New York Times asked experts to weigh in on whether those who have already had COVID-19 need to get a vaccine. It is unknown produces a stronger immune response the vaccine or natural infection, but the vaccines have “predictably prevented illness, and they are a far safer bet.” For instance, in the Moderna trial, recipients of the vaccine had more antibodies than those who had contracted COVID-19. Experts warn that COVID-19 is the far more dangerous option versus getting the vaccine.

The December 17th episode of the Osterholm Update: COVID-19 discusses vaccines, vaccinating pregnant women, and guidance for the holidays as cases around the country continue to surge.
IHME has changed their daily infections and testing to project the trajectory of infections based on easing mandates and closures and universal mask wearing.
Other Interesting & Helpful Resources
As the pandemic continues into the holidays, children across the country are writing about the strain it has caused in their letters to Santa. Children are asking for the vaccine, the ability to play with their friends, and health for their family members. The US Postal Service operates Operation Santa, which makes the letters public allowing people to search and to anonymously respond with gifts to children who may not receive any otherwise. This year has seen a rise in responses as currently all letters have been adopted thus far. This is not uncommon for times of stress, as 2008 also saw increased participation in the program.
State-by-State Actions
Schools: Education Week

Reopening & Closing Status:

Construction Limits:
Consumer advocates are warning the public of puppy scams, as 337 complaints were filed with the Better Business Bureau for scam to foster, adopt of buy dogs online in November compared to only 77 the same time last year. Projected losses due to these types of scams are set to reach $3.1 million. The FTC has warned of these types of scams for years, but the pandemic has just acerbated the problem.

The NBA hopes to have “as close to a normal season as possible” this year. With nearly 160 pages of safety guidelines, the league will return to playing in arenas rather than playing the bubble created at Walt Disney World to finish out the 2019-2020 season. Mark Cuban, owner of the Mavericks, said that if players treat each game as a bubble, “we won’t be able to eliminate cases and outbreaks, but if we can minimize them, then hopefully it can be as close to a normal season as possible.”
Resident Resources
National Low Income Housing Coalition put together a State and Local Rental Assistance guide for COVID-19 Emergency Rental Assistance Programs around the country.

Fannie Mae put together a “Here to Help Renters” resource guide. It includes tips for talking to your landlord, top things to know, and options for those in need of financial assistance. Other resources are linked to HUD, CARES Act, and state and local resources.

Freddie Mac offers a Renter Helpline, which provides counseling for renters on budgeting, credit improvement and debt management. The attached flyer is available in multiple languages.

HUD has put together a guide and FAQ for Renters during the pandemic.

The United Way is assisting residents in Minnesota with COVID housing assistance program. Those needing support can call 211 or toll free at 1-800-543-7709.

Information on filing for unemployment

Family Housing Fund has put together resources for households impacted by COVID-19, ranging from legal help, utilities, food, unemployment insurance and more.

Housing Link has provided tips for emergency assistance in the Twin Cities with contact information by county.

National Alliance on Mental Illness Minnesota also has a list for families of financial and housing resources. You can also search for reduced cost services by zip code on their website.
In an attempt to share what we know and are doing during this crisis, we are publishing a set of periodic updates for our partners and friends in affordable housing. We likely will do this twice a month or as interesting events dictate. Please let us know if you would like to be removed from this list.

Thank you,
Paul Sween & Mark Moorhouse