Venezuela Oil - Money Weekly Newsletter from alooola®

Venezuela Oil

January 5, 2026

Venezuela holds the world’s largest estimated oil reserves—about 17% of global supply—yet production has collapsed since the oil industry was nationalized. Output has fallen from nearly 3.5 million barrels per day in the 1970s (over 7% of global supply) to about 1.1 million barrels per day last year, roughly equivalent to production from the U.S. state of North Dakota. ₁

Most investors assume the primary difference between large-cap and small-cap companies is size, but profitability is also a distinction. Profit margins for the S&P 100 have risen to 15.7%, while S&P 600 small-cap margins remain near 5.9%. _*2

U.S. equities have been resilient despite volatility. Since 2019, the S&P 500 has posted gains in 6 of the past 7 years, including +24.9% (2024), and +19.4% (2025), with 2022 the lone setback at -18.0%. _*3

If history is any guide, 2026 may be less favorable for equities. During midterm election years, the S&P 500 has finished higher only 53% of the time with an average gain of 4.6%, compared with a 78% success rate and roughly 11% average gains in the other years of the presidential cycle. _*4

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alooola® is an SEC Registered Investment Adviser. Material presented is for informational purposes only, and is not meant to be advice to any individual. Talk with alooola® to see how this information may apply to you. Consider your current financial situation, tolerance for risk, and investment objectives before you invest funds in securities through alooola®. For a more complete explanation of the alooola® service, please visit www.alooola.com. Information presented, including past performance of various sectors, vehicles, and indices is not to be construed as a forecast or guarantee of future results. Actual results, performance, or events may differ materially from those expressed or implied herein, and all investments are subject to risk, including loss of principal.

Sources:

Reuters – “Venezuela’s Oil and Mining Sectors: Large Potential, Weak Infrastructure”
A Wealth of Common Sense – “Animal Spirits: The Best Performing Stocks of 2025”
A Wealth of Common Sense – “The Biggest Risk in 2026”
Barron’s – “The Stock Market Won’t Be Worth Celebrating in 2026”

*Past performance is not indicative of future performance

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