How can craft brewing entrepreneurs weigh the effects (positive and negative) of reopening their taprooms too soon? We are all trying to balance the economic necessity against public health concerns, concerns for employee safety, and possibly the biggest unknown: how quickly will consumers return? It is a complicated puzzle and there seem to be competing 'right' answers.

In times like these I tend to favor waiting. If your to-go beer and food sales are keeping you alive, if your landlord or bank is being flexible on payments, and if your financial health can stand another month, your mental health may benefit from waiting. As you make these tough decisions include conversations with your employees. Ask them how they are feeling and the impacts to their mental, financial and physical health from waiting until the safety question becomes more clear. Last, be sure to stay up on your aluminum can inventory (plus labels!). Below I offer some excellent insights from BA Chief Economist, Bart Watson.

PREDICTING ON-PREMISE AND OWN-PREMISE SALES ONCE SHELTER IN PLACE RESTRICTIONS ARE EASED

BA Chief Economist, Bart Watson is one of the most sensible voices in our industry. His public blogs and, when I am lucky enough to join him at conferences, his private thoughts are always on point, fair, and present information that allows entrepreneurs to make decisions for themselves. In uncertain times like these, I read Bart's work and his latest blog posts are must reads for everyone - even those outside the USA.

On March 16, 2020 Bart wrote The Coming Economic Challenges Facing Craft Breweries. Even though March 16 seems like decades ago, Bart points out how beer sales have performed during the two most recent economic recessions. As Bart mentions, these are blunt measures and don't get into the weeds of business model differences - such as if you were an all-draft nano who now has to purchase cans and schedule a mobile canner just to stay alive. In general though, while sales numbers are down so are costs. Our members are sharing survival ideas on this forum, definitely check it out. (IMAGE CREDIT: THE BREWERS ASSOCIATION)

WHAT WILL ON-PREMISE AND OWN-PREMISE LOOK LIKE WHEN RESTRICTIONS ARE LIFTED?

In an April 28, 2020 blog, Bart Watson offers predictions on how a return to on-premise consumption may look. With dire circumstances affecting the well-being of hospitality employees (see image below), millions of people worldwide are hoping for safe and effective best practices to return to work. Bart discusses data from multiple sources that suggest a slow return, with only 20% of those surveyed indicating they will immediately return to dining and drinking out once restrictions are lifted. As we work toward solutions, keep contributing ideas to our forum threads. You all are doing incredible work and many of us can benefit from your innovative solutions. Below is a graph Bart shared on Twitter depicting the loss of jobs in hospitality over the last several recessions (in gray) - it ain't pretty. (Image credit, Presto.com)

WHAT DOES A SOCIALLY DISTANT TAPROOM LOOK LIKE? (MEMBERS ONLY FORUM)

About ten days ago, we started a forum thread and shared data from countries further down the COVID-19 curve in an effort to predict what the consumer behavior question might look like. Just last night, I reached out to CAS friend and Chinese beer market expert, Michelle Wang to ask how the return to restaurants and bars was going in Shanghai (her home town). Predictably, Michelle mentioned it was slow but people were becoming more confident as time goes on. Michelle has started a new live-stream where she interviews thought leaders all over the world to help craft breweries make decisions. Mark your calendars (May 24, 2020, exact time TBD) for a live stream conversation between Michelle and Sam Holloway as we discuss how reopening in China may serve as a model for the rest of the world.

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