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January 26, 2026
Good morning,
Markets
For the week ending 1/23/2026:
- The S&P 500 decreased .035% to close at 6,915.61.
- The yield of the 10-year Treasury bond increased from 4.23% to 4.24%.
- Oil increased from $59.44 to $61.07.
- The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) increased from 15.86 to 16.09.
- U.S. dollar currency exchange rates were:
- EUR/USD: 1.18 (USD weaker from a week ago)
- GBP/USD: 1.35 (USD weaker from a week ago)
- USD/JPY: 158.50 (USD weaker from a week ago)
Market Headlines
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Greenland: President Trump announced a plan to impose a 10% tariff on goods from eight European countries in response to their opposition to his bid to acquire control of Greenland. As a result, U.S. stocks plummeted by more than 2% on Tuesday, with all three major indices (DOW, S&P 500, and Nasdaq) recording their worst daily performance since October 2025. On Wednesday, following a meeting between President Trump and NATO Secretary General, Trump de-escalated the situation by announcing that tariffs would not be imposed as the framework of an agreement had been reached. U.S. stocks rebounded on Wednesday and Thursday as tariff fears eased, however the U.S. dollar continued to weaken and saw its worst weekly performance in over 8 months.
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Economic Data: Despite the deceleration in the labor market over the past year, this week’s economic data continues to indicate that the U.S. economy remains in stable condition. Unemployment claims continue to come in at low levels, consumer confidence reached a five-month high, and November 2025 consumer spending data shows that demand remains strong. As The Fed prepares for their upcoming meeting next week, all signs continue to point to interest rates holding steady.
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Commodities Surge: U.S. natural gas markets saw a price surge of more than 60% due to the extreme winter storm passing through the country that is expected to affect more than 150 million people. Meanwhile, Silver broke above $100 per ounce for the first time in history, and Gold hit fresh record highs and closed near the $5,000 per ounce mark amidst ongoing geopolitical tensions and a weakening U.S. dollar.
Key Takeaways
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Markets continue to remain highly sensitive to tariff-related news. In April 2025, President Trump’s “Liberation Day” announcement of sweeping reciprocal tariffs triggered sharp selloffs in U.S. equities, with the S&P 500 falling more than 12% in the days after the announcement. One week later, Trump paused most of those tariff increases for 90 days, prompting a major market rebound with the S&P 500 rallying over 9% in a single session. Nearly 10 months later, tariff talks and policy reversals continue to drive market swings. Trump’s threat of new tariffs on eight European countries amid tensions over Greenland contributed to the S&P 500 dropping over 2% in a single session, immediately followed by a market rally when the administration later announced it would not impose those tariffs.
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Despite frustration with rising prices, consumers have continued to spend. Thursday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data showed that personal spending rose 0.5% in both October and November 2025. Consumers have reported that rising prices are placing pressure on their purchasing power, as inflation continues to remain above The Fed’s 2% target. However, there is growing confidence amongst consumers that inflation won’t reaccelerate, and price increases in both the short- and long-term future will remain moderate.
The Week Ahead: January 26-30
- Monday: Durable goods orders (delayed November 2025 report)
- Tuesday: Consumer confidence, FOMC meeting
- Wednesday: FOMC interest-rate decision & Fed Chair Jerome Powell press conference, Microsoft earnings
- Thursday: Initial jobless claims, U.S. trade deficit (delayed November 2025 report), Apple earnings
- Friday: Producer Price Index (PPE)
Until next week,
Weller Financial Group
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