April 20, 2026

Good morning,

Markets

For the week ending 4/17/2026:

• The S&P 500 increased 4.5% to close at 7,126.06.
• The yield of the 10-year Treasury bond decreased from 4.32% to 4.25%.
• Oil decreased from $96.57 to $82.59.
• The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) decreased from 19.23 to 17.48.
• U.S. dollar currency exchange rates were:
• EUR/USD: 1.18     (USD weaker from a week ago)
• GBP/USD: 1.35     (USD weaker from a week ago)
• USD/JPY: 158.58   (USD weaker from a week ago)

Market Headlines

• Stocks Surge to Record Highs: After tensions eased in the Middle East and oil prices began to fall, the S&P 500 recorded three consecutive record highs beginning Wednesday, closing 4.5% higher for the week, while the Nasdaq also reached record levels with a 6.8% gain, reflecting strong investor confidence driven by reduced geopolitical risk and lower energy costs.
• Oil Prices Drop: On Friday, Iran announced that the Strait of Hormuz was “completely open” for commercial vessels following the start of a 10-day ceasefire in Lebanon. As shipping disruptions eased, U.S. crude oil prices were trading around $83 per barrel, down approximately 14% from the previous week. However, oil prices remain elevated year-to-date, trading roughly 40% higher than at the start of the year.
• Earnings Season Begins: This week marked the start of Q1 earnings season, with major U.S. banks reporting strong results that exceeded analysts’ forecasts, while a large majority of early reporters in the S&P 500 also beat estimates and overall profit growth tracked solidly above historical averages. Strength was particularly evident in technology and AI-related sectors, helping lift the Nasdaq, though market reactions remained selective as investors closely weighed forward guidance within the sector.
• PPI Less than Expected: The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for March showed a smaller-than-expected increase of approximately 0.5% month-over-month and roughly 4% year-over-year, signaling that wholesale inflation pressures were cooling more than economists had forecast. Higher gasoline prices accounted for approximately half of the overall gain. Markets reacted positively to the softer reading, as it suggested that cost pressures from earlier energy spikes were not fully feeding into broader producer inflation, which eased concerns about persistent inflation and supported expectations for a more stable interest rate outlook.

Key Takeaways

• After a third consecutive positive week, the stock market has experienced another V-shaped recovery, a pattern characterized by a sharp, rapid decline followed by an equally strong and swift rebound. Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq marked their 2026 lows on March 30, closing at 6,343 and 20,794, respectively. Just 13 trading days later, both indexes rebounded to all-time highs of 7,126 and 24,468, respectively. The rapid decline in March followed by the strong mid-April recovery reflects a broader pattern of sharp drawdowns followed by fast rebounds seen in recent years, including the 2020 COVID-era downturn and the 2025 post–tariff shock recovery. While those periods ultimately resulted in strong full-year returns, whether 2026 will follow the same trajectory remains uncertain. Easing geopolitical concerns related to Iran have reduced tail-risk scenarios, but uncertainty remains around the persistence of energy supply disruptions and their potential impact on broader markets.
• As the U.S.–Iran conflict continues to dominate headlines, investors will also be splitting their attention with earnings season. While earnings are expected to grow nearly 12% year-over-year in Q1 2026, the key question investors are hoping to gain insight into is the impact of higher energy costs, which are likely to flow more meaningfully into Q2 earnings than into the current Q1 reports. This will be particularly important for sectors with high fuel and transportation exposure, where margin pressure could become more visible if oil prices remain elevated or volatile. Overall, earnings guidance will be just as important as headline results in determining whether recent market gains are sustainable.

The Week Ahead: April 20 – 24

• Monday: No major reports scheduled
• Tuesday: U.S. retail sales, Business inventories, Pending home sales
• Wednesday: No major reports scheduled
• Thursday: Initial jobless claims
• Friday: Consumer sentiment

Until next week,

Weller Financial Group

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Weller Financial Group is located at 6206 Slocum Road, Ontario, NY 14519 and can be reached at 315-524-8000. Financial Advisors at Weller Financial Group offer advisory services through Commonwealth Financial Network®, a Registered Investment Adviser.