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July 13, 2026
Good afternoon,
Markets
For the week ending 7/10/2026:
- The S&P 500 increased 1.2% to close at 7,575.39.
- The yield of the 10-year Treasury bond increased from 4.49% to 4.57%.
- Oil increased from $68.69 to $71.41.
- The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) decreased from 16.15 to 15.03.
- U.S. dollar currency exchange rates were:
- EUR/USD: 1.14 (USD weaker from a week ago)
- GBP/USD: 1.34 (USD weaker from a week ago)
- USD/JPY: 162.36 (USD stronger from a week ago)
Market Headlines
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Volatile Oil: Oil prices experienced significant volatility throughout the week, posting a roughly 4.3% weekly gain as escalating U.S.-Iran hostilities disrupted shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. tightened sanctions enforcement on Iranian oil exports while launching additional military strikes against Iranian targets. In retaliation, Iran carried out attacks on U.S. military infrastructure and commercial vessels, significantly reducing tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Crude futures experienced sharp swings throughout the week. After trading near their recent lows earlier in July, Brent crude climbed above $80 per barrel midweek before retreating as reports of potential diplomatic negotiations eased supply concerns.
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Yields Rise: Treasury yields moved higher during the week as a sharp rise in oil prices fueled concerns that renewed energy-driven inflation could delay any further easing in monetary policy. Investors also remained cautious ahead of upcoming inflation data and continued to assess comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will remain data dependent in determining the future path of interest rates.
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Equities Rise: Stocks finished the week higher as renewed strength in large-cap technology and AI-related companies outweighed concerns over rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions. Investors remained encouraged by resilient corporate earnings expectations and growing confidence that inflation pressures outside of energy continue to moderate, supporting the broader market despite higher Treasury yields.
Key Takeaway
While this week's market action once again demonstrated that geopolitical tensions can have a meaningful short-term impact on financial markets, investors are unlikely to overreact to the ongoing uncertainty. Since March, tensions in the Middle East have been one of the most consistent drivers of market headlines. Initially, investors responded sharply to the spike in oil and energy prices, which contributed to a near correction in equities at the end of March. More recently, however, markets have tended to react to geopolitical developments with brief periods of volatility before refocusing on the broader economic and corporate outlook. While headlines surrounding the conflict continue to influence day-to-day trading, longer-term investors remain focused on the fundamental drivers of market performance, including corporate earnings, technological innovation, artificial intelligence, and the strength of the U.S. economy. These factors have largely fueled the market rally since equities bottomed on March 30. As long as the broader economic and earnings backdrop remains supportive, geopolitical-driven market swings are likely to remain temporary rather than alter the longer-term investment outlook moving forward.
The Week Ahead: July 13 – 17
- Monday: Federal budget
- Tuesday: Consumer Price Index (CPI), Fed Chair Kevin Warsh testifies before House panel
- Wednesday: Producer Price Index (PPI), Fed Chair Kevin Warsh testifies before Senate panel
- Thursday: Retail sales, Wholesale inventories, Pending home sales, Initial jobless claims
- Friday: Consumer sentiment, Industrial production, Export & import prices, Housing starts
Until next week,
Weller Financial Group
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