|
September 21, 2026
Good afternoon,
Markets
For the week ending 9/18/2026:
- The S&P 500 decreased 0.1% to close at 7,650.50.
- The yield of the 10-year Treasury bond increased from 4.98% to 5.00%.
- Oil increased from $100.05 to $100.30.
- The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) decreased from 15.84 to 14.81.
- U.S. dollar currency exchange rates were:
- EUR/USD: 1.15 (USD stronger from a week ago)
- GBP/USD: 1.34 (USD stronger from a week ago)
- USD/JPY: 156.13 (USD stronger from a week ago)
Market Headlines
-
Fed Raises Rates: The U.S. Federal Reserve voted unanimously to raise interest rates for the first time since 2023, increasing the federal funds target range by 25 basis points (0.25%) to 3.75%–4.00%. Projections released Wednesday showed that 16 of the 18 policymakers expect at least one additional 25 basis point (0.25%) rate hike by the end of the year, signaling that the Fed remains focused on bringing inflation back toward its 2% target. The projections reflect continued concern that inflation remains elevated despite solid economic growth and a relatively resilient labor market, suggesting that monetary policy may remain restrictive for longer than previously anticipated.
-
Oil Remains Volatile: Oil prices remained volatile last week, with U.S. crude briefly rising above $106 per barrel on Tuesday before falling back below $100 later in the week. Although crude prices retreated from their multi-month highs, they remained elevated as ongoing Middle East tensions continued to fuel concerns over potential supply disruptions.
-
Mixed Market Results: U.S. stocks finished mixed last week as investors weighed the Federal Reserve’s first rate hike since 2023, higher Treasury yields, and continued tensions in the Middle East. The S&P 500 slipped about 0.1% and the Dow fell 1.7%, while the Nasdaq gained roughly 0.7%, helped by strength in technology and semiconductor stocks.
Key Takeaway
While the Federal Reserve's decision to raise interest rates on Wednesday was unanimous, the path of monetary policy beyond 2026 remains uncertain. With economic growth and labor market conditions continuing to show resilience, the Fed has increasingly focused its attention on addressing persistent inflationary pressures. Policymakers raised their inflation forecasts, and 16 of the 18 officials projected at least one additional rate hike before year-end. However, opinions are divided regarding the outlook for 2027. Eight of the 18 policymakers anticipate at least one additional rate increase, while the remaining 10 expect rates to remain unchanged or potentially move lower. The Fed's median projection calls for the federal funds rate to remain near 4.1% through the end of 2027, highlighting the significant uncertainty surrounding the timing and direction of future monetary policy decisions.
The Week Ahead: September 21 – 25
- Monday: No major reports scheduled
- Tuesday: No major reports scheduled
- Wednesday: No major reports scheduled
- Thursday: Initial jobless claims, New home sales
- Friday: Durable goods, Consumer sentiment
Until next week,
Weller Financial Group
| 
