THE TTALK QUOTES 

On Global Trade & Investment
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No. 64 of 2018
MONDAY, OCTOBER 29, 2018

Click HERE for last Thursday's quote from WTO DDG Alan Wolff.  
A MEMBERSHIP DILEMMA AT THE WTO    

 
"So we started with 23 Contracting Parties to the original GATT, and the WTO now comprises 164 members ... . That shift leaves the traditional powers with a dilemma.  How shall we behave in a world we no longer dominate?" 
 
Stephen de Boer  
October 17, 2018 
CONTEXT
Last week - October 24 and 25 - officials from 13 WTO members met in Ottawa "to discuss ways to strengthen and modernize the WTO."  The meeting was convened by Canada's Minister for International Trade Diversification, Jim Carr, and concluded with a joint communiqué, which said in part that "The current situation at the WTO is no longer sustainable."  We shall return to the Ottawa meeting and the joint statement shortly.

First, though, let's step back another week, to October 17 and the Global Business Dialogue discussion on WTO reform that afternoon.  Stephen de Boer is Canada's Ambassador and Permanent Representative to the WTO in Geneva, and he was one of the three experts to speak on the issue at the GBD event.  His remarks then were the source for today's featured quote.  Some of the challenges to the WTO, Ambassador de Boer said, can be seen in changes in the domestic environments of members countries, such as "the hollowing out of the middle class," and those changes, he said, should be addressed through domestic policies.

Other challenges arise from changes in the multilateral trading system itself.  Here is some more of what Ambassador de Boer said on that score:

The other challenge in our view is perhaps architectural. The multilateral system was built so that other countries could join, and join they have.  So we started with 23 Contracting Parties to the original GATT, and the WTO now comprises 164 members that have accepted the rules set out in the various agreements.   And this shift, in our view, has delivered ever higher living standards to their people. It is only natural that, as a result of the success of the rules-based system, 85 percent of people who live outside the rich, industrialized west should, over time, account for a greater and growing share of the world's wealth. 

That shift leaves the traditional powers with a dilemma.  How shall we behave in a world we no longer dominate?  Now my Foreign Minister, the Honourable Chrystia Freeland, recently spoke about this.  She outlined that one answer is to give up on the rules-based multilateral order and to seek to survive in a world, defined not by common values, mutually agreed upon rules, and shared prosperity, but rather by a ruthless struggle between great powers governed solely by the narrow, short-term and mercantilist pursuit of self-interest.  It doesn't really work for Canada. 

Canada is the world's tenth largest economy, but we know we would never thrive in such a system, nor I think, you will agree, would most of the world.  The far wiser path and the more enduring choice, as the minister suggested, is to reform and renew the multilateral order that we have built together, to strengthen and make new rules where necessary.  And, in doing so, to require that all states, whether big or small, play by common rules. 

And this is a difficult truth.  As the relative might of the traditional powers invariably declines, now is the time when, more than ever, we must set aside the idea that might is right.

We believe in multilateralism and the rules-based international order, and we're committed to seeking ways to improve these rules and institutions for the 21st century.  They are the very foundation of what we are as a trading nation.

Looking ahead to the Ottawa meeting, Ambassador de Boer explained that the goal of the conference was to encourage the participants to candidly discuss the issues and offer suggestions for reform.  He described the process as "bottom up" and added, "I don't know what the results [will] look like after the meeting. I will know when the Ottawa meeting is over."

THE OTTAWA MEETING
But now we do have the results.  In addition to Canada, which convened the meeting, the participating WTO members were Australia, Brazil, Chile, the European Union, Japan, Kenya, Korea, Mexico, New Zealand, Norway, Singapore, and Switzerland.  And, of course, the WTO itself was there in the person of the Director-General, Roberto Azevêdo.  Press reports published in advance of the meeting tended to focus as much on who wasn't going to be there as who was.  Neither China nor the United States was invited.  But the hope from the beginning was that by starting with a small group of "like-minded" members, a cornerstone might be laid for something that all members could subscribe to in time. 

Canada's trade minister Jim Carr spoke to that issue after the meeting.  Minister Carr said:

"We recognize that we are in the process of setting the table for a larger effort, broadening to all members, and that effort must include the United States and China."

So, what have they put on the table or, more prosaically, what was in the joint communiqué?  The following five quotes should give you a sense of it:

Role of WTO.  "We reaffirm our clear and strong support for the rules-based multilateral trading system and stress
the indispensable role that the WTO plays in facilitating and safeguarding trade."

Dispute Settlement.  "We underscore that
the dispute settlement system is a central pillar of the WTO."

Negotiations.  "We
must reinvigorate the negotiating function of the WTO."

Development.  "Development
must remain an integral part of our work."

Transparency.  "We should strengthen the monitoring and transparency of members' trade policies ... ."

But, of course, you will want to read the full statement for yourself.  (See the link below.)
COMMENT
Today's featured quotes asks one of those questions that the mind turns over and over.  Certainly one plausible reading rests on the assumption that the WTO doesn't require leadership from among the members, the democracy of sovereigns will suffice.  Perhaps, but the constraints of the consensus system and the anomalies of the non-sovereigns (Taiwan and Hong Kong) do give one pause.

And then there is the history.  Our impression is that from 1947 through the 1994 and the Uruguay Round, the system was leadership driven - collectively leadership, to be sure, but leadership nonetheless.  In today's world, any hope for collective leadership in the WTO would have to rest on some rapprochement between the United States and China.  Alas, as an old friend might say, the path to that is "not intuitively obviously to the untrained (or clairvoyant) mind," but it may be out there.
SOURCES & LINKS
On Reform at the WTO is the page of the GBD website devoted to materials from GBD's October 17 program on the World Trade Organization, including the recordings of the various presentations.  One of those recordings is entitled the Remarks of Ambassador Stephen de Boer, and it was this recording that was the source for today's featured quote.

 The Joint Communique takes you to the statement issued by the 13 governments who participated in last week's Ottawa meeting on reform for the WTO.

 After the Meeting is a link to a CBC report on the Ottawa meeting,  including the above quote from Canada's Jim Carr.

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