This past December 18th, which already seems like a year ago, 14 top Wall Street strategists gave their 2020 yearend targets for the S&P 500.
Clearly, they weren't expecting the 2019 yearend surge because a bunch of those forecasts have already been reached or exceeded.
UBS and Morgan Stanley both call for 3000, about 7% lower than where it is now. These two are the most negative of the bunch. The highest is from Oppenheimer, a not too bold call of 3500. The other 11, including Goldman Sachs and Bank of America, are mostly between 3200 and 3400. As I write this, the S&P 500 is about 3240.
I'd like to point out that these are not predictions for the coming 52 week highs and lows on the index; just yearend targets. Today, Friday, January 3rd, the major averages are down; what I'd consider a mildly down day of less than 1%, due to the news out of Iraq last night. Believe it or not, geopolitical flashes typically have little impact on stock averages.
My point is that the amount of stock market risk you take now should be determined by how much time you have to reach your goal(s). If you find yourself making sudden, splashy moves based on yesterday's up day and today's down day, you're doing something wrong and you need to figure out why right away.
Read more: https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-2020-forecasts-advice-sp-500-year-end-targets-2019-12#rbc-8
Dusting off an old anecdote from 2011:
Fast forward to today, and we have our advantage, shale oil and natural gas. While shale plays have been an investment theme for some time, the implication for the manufacturing base of our economy present enormous opportunities for cyclical industries and indeed for our consumers as well. In turn, the competitive advantage for domestic manufacturers due to cheap energy present potentially enormous investment opportunities for investors and may me be a strong impetus for manufacturers to move operations back to the US for cheap and stable energy.
Back to 2020: With oil-based countries becoming more hostile to the U.S. and to their neighbors, that old anecdote makes more sense than ever. It's already happening.