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THE DRAMA CONTINUES…
DID WE WIN OR LOSE?
Well Congress never ceases to keep the drama going. After predictions from both parties that the government shutdown was inevitable, lawmakers pulled a rabbit out of the hat, and avoided a government shut down. After three weeks of chaos, the House and Senate passed a “clean” CR continuing funding until Nov. 17, that provides $16 billion for disaster relief. In short what happened, was after 21 members voted against Speaker McCarthy’s stopgap bill,
McCarthy went against party conservatives and rolled out a stopgap bill that continues funding at current levels. This billed cleared the House with more support from Democrats than Republicans. The Democrats conceded immediate funding to Ukraine, but there appears to be an agreement to reconsider that funding for inclusion in a bill ahead.
Conservatives did, however, get agreement from leadership for additional spending cuts across the 12 regular appropriations bills. But all that funding will still need agreement from the Senate, and the question is, will the majority party in the House get defeated again? Funding battles over border security and Ukraine will likely continue to be divisive issues.
Who won and who lost, and what will happen in the 47 day reprieve?
Speaker McCarthy won by proving both parties wrong in predicting a shutdown. He got the major concession to drop (“for now”) funding for the Ukraine over strong objections of both parties in the Senate. And, by getting quick support for his clean stopgap CR in the House, he avoided his party being blamed for a government shutdown.
And, he showed muscle, that he wasn’t afraid to put it on the line…“If somebody wants to make a motion against me, bring it. There has to be an adult in the room.”
But as predicted his conservative rival Rep. Matt Gaetz from Florida, on the Sunday morning talk shows, took the Speaker up on that challenge. Saying that the adults in the room don’t want trillions in deficits and he will this week, make a motion to oust the Speaker. Some republicans in the House countered that threat “There’s only one person to blame for any potential government shutdown, and that’s Matt Gaetz,” said Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.). “He’s not a conservative Republican. He’s a charlatan.”
The conservatives that defeated McCarthy’s effort to get a bill with funding for border security, have for months been looking to the government funding deadline as their opportunity to force deep spending cuts and policy concessions. They lost that fight and put their party in a weakened position to get what they want in the long run.
The question: what is the end result? The Lawmakers’ “can” has been kicked down the road but will the fight end. Is the shutdown just postponed? One thing for sure, the November 17th deadline, puts a Thanksgiving holiday for congress on the line. Some predict the CR cannot possibly be negotiated until closer to Christmas.
McCarthy’s long-term control over his party caucus is now in question. But is there an emerging leader who can control his caucus. It isn’t clear anyone could.
The next week is likely to have more drama…and much more political wizardry. And for sure this time around what will happen in terms of the future funding of the Government is still “unpredictable”.
Democrats have won in that McCarthy can only afford a handful of GOP defections and hang on to his job. But not clear what democrat leadership will do, to assist McCarthy in holding on to his job.
Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) on Sunday told CNN “they should use it. It comes at a price, you don’t just vote for a Republican Speaker for nothing.” Democrats got most of what they wanted in terms of a clean CR because they ended up being the ones who provided the majority of the House “yes” votes. But if they help McCarthy fight Gaetz what will they want in return? We will see in coming weeks what political compromises are possible to keep the Government funded.
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