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TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 27, 2024

THE SAIS REVIEW / NORTH AFRICA INITIATIVE • UPCOMING EVENT

Water Wars: Conflict and Diplomacy

FEBRUARY 29, 2024 • 3:00–4:00 PM EST

Join the SAIS Review of International Affairs for the launch its Summer-Fall 2023 journal: “Water Wars: Conflict and Diplomacy”. Volume 43, Issue 2 of the SAIS Review explores water resources as a catalyst for conflict and competition since the beginning of human civilization.

The event is sponsored by the SAIS Foreign Policy Institute's North Africa Initiative. 

Register on Eventbrite to attend in person.

Or, follow the livestream on Youtube (no registration required).

•FROM THE DIRECTOR'S DESK•

Morocco’s Struggle with Water Scarcity and Food Security

ARAB NEWS — Morocco confronts the acute challenges of water scarcity and food security, exacerbated by climate change and agricultural dependency. The dire situation, intensified by the 2023 earthquake, threatens the nation's economy and underscores the need for sustainable practices and global cooperation to mitigate the looming crisis of resource depletion and ensure human survival.

Libya Ex-Militias Agree to Leave Capital After Clashes

THE DEFENSE POST — Armed groups in Tripoli have agreed to leave the Libyan capital and to be replaced with regular forces, according to the Interior Ministry, after a spate of deadly clashes. The deal will see the General Security Force, the Special Deterrence Force, which controls the east of Tripoli, Brigade 444 in southern Tripoli, and Brigade 111, attached to the general staff, quit the capital.

Egypt Seals Biggest Deal Ever With UAE Investing $35 Billion

BLOOMBERG — The United Arab Emirates agreed to invest $35 billion in Egypt, a breakthrough in Cairo’s efforts to end its worst foreign-exchange crisis in decades. The plans include developing a premium area on the North African nation’s Mediterranean coast known as Ras El-Hekma — a project Egypt’s Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly described as the biggest deal in his country’s history.

Morocco Looks to World Cup to Fuel Planned 80% Boost in Tourism

BLOOMBERG — Morocco, long famous for its beach resorts and walled ancient cities, sees co-hosting the FIFA World Cup in 2030 as helping to bring about an 80% increase in tourists by the end of the decade. Authorities have a target of boosting the number of visitors yearly by at least one million through 2030, bringing the total number to 26 million compared with 2023’s 14.5 million.

Libya Resumes Wafa Oil Field, Italy Gas Link After Short Halt

BLOOMBERG — An oil field in western Libya and a natural gas link to Italy resumed after a short halt as protesters withdrew from the facilities following assurances from the government that their demands would be met. Shipments from the Wafa field, which produces 40,000 to 45,000 barrels a day, are back up after being halted as guards at the facilities demanded better pay.

•INTERVIEW•

Achieving Egypt’s SDGs

AL-AHRAM — The UNDP is committed to aiding Egypt's pursuit of the Sustainable Development Goals, focusing on supporting vulnerable communities, enhancing micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises, and boosting solar energy use. These initiatives are part of efforts to advance green financing, biodiversity conservation, and climate resilience, aligning with Egypt's Vision 2030.

Africa Moves a Step Closer to Continent’s First Cobalt Refinery

BLOOMBERG — Africa could have its first cobalt sulphate refinery by the end of 2025, one of the few outside of China capable of making the product that’s a key component of lithium-ion batteries. Nigeria-based Africa Finance Corp. last week signed an expression of interest to provide $100 million in financing to Kobaloni Energy, backed by mining veteran Mick Davis’ Vision Blue, for the planned facility in Zambia.

•TRANSLATED FROM FRENCH•

Suez Canal: How the Houthis are Depriving Egypt of its Golden Goose

JEUNE AFRIQUE — This maritime chokepoint, built in 1869, usually concentrates 12% to 15% of world maritime traffic. But over the past two months, the Suez Canal's trade volume has declined considerably: 42% less, according to the United Nations. The Egyptian President himself, Abdel Fattah al-Sissi, was alarmed at the loss of income due to the drop in traffic intensity observed since January.

•TRANSLATED FROM FRENCH•

Tunisia: Interest Rates, Treasury Finance & IMF Relations - Bets on the New Central Bank Governor

GNET — Fethi Nouri faces significant challenges as the new governor of the Central Bank of Tunisia (BCT), including the need for transparent communication and managing relations with the IMF. A key task is to reassess the direct interest rate in light of falling inflation, while also dealing with the risks associated with direct financing of the state's budget by the BCT. His actions will be pivotal in maintaining the central bank's independence and addressing the financial stability of Tunisia.

SAIS REVIEW OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS & NAI • PODCAST

The Maghreb: The Birth of Libya

In the inaugural episode of this mini-series, FPI Senior Fellow and Executive Director of NAI, Hafed Al-Ghwell, takes listeners on a journey back to the early 20th century to witness the birth of a nation–Libya. It’s a tale of independence, monarchy, and the shaping of a country’s identity amid the waves of change sweeping through Africa and the Middle East.

WILSON CENTER • CALL FOR PAPERS

The Future of Europe and MENA Relations Series

The Middle East Program and the Global Europe Program at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars invite scholars and experts to contribute to our project on the Future of Europe and MENA Relations by submitting a research policy paper on seven key themes.

ABSTRACT SUBMISSION DEADLINE: MARCH 1ST, 2024.

WORLD BANK • IMMERSIVE STORY

Changing How We Respond to the Refugee Crisis

Global leaders, heads of businesses, and civil society organizations convened in Geneva for the second Global Refugee Forum. Held every four years, the Forum is the world’s largest international gathering on refugees. The event comes at a time when overlapping crises have made our landscape far more complex: fragility, conflict, and an existential climate crisis are driving the number of forcibly displaced persons across the world to historic highs.

PERSPECTIVES

WASHINGTON INSTITUTE • FIKRA FORUM

GHAZI BEN AHMED

Tunisia at the Crossroads: What Role for the United States in a Multipolar World?

The United States, in recognizing the limits of its traditional “bloc-building” approach, faces the imperative to adapt to a multipolar reality. Embracing multipolarity as a fundamental principle of its foreign policy could pave the way for more flexible and effective international engagements. In this context, the United States could offer, jointly with the EU, a comprehensive proposal aiming at creating a mutually beneficial relationship with Tunisia, leveraging economic incentives and mobility opportunities to encourage country's return to a democratic transition path.

USIP / KATIA CAVIGELLI & JAMES RUPERT

For Peace in Sahel, African and U.S. Experts Urge Focused Partnership

The past month has sharpened a decade-old question for U.S. and international policymakers: How best, in 2024, to help stabilize what is now the world’s largest single zone of military rule and violent conflicts — Africa’s Sahel region? After three military-ruled Sahel states withdrew from the West African regional community, those juntas have since proclaimed an alliance aimed at resisting international pressure. Former U.S. and African officials urged what they called vital changes in U.S. and allied policies to prevent a dangerous spread of the Sahel’s crises.

BROOKINGS • FORESIGHT AFRICA 2024 / HIPPOLYTE FOFACK

The Future of African Trade in the AfCFTA Era

The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) could potentially redefine Africa's trade and economic landscape with its 1.4 billion market and a combined GDP of USD 3.4 trillion. Estimated to boost Africa’s exports by 32% and increase foreign direct investment by 111%–159% by 2035, the AfCFTA aims to transform Africa’s commodity-based economy. This economic shift could increase intra-regional trade, enhance resilience against global volatilities, embolden industrialization, and allows countries to become key players in global value chains.

WORLD BANK • VOICES / AXEL VAN TROTSENBURG

Economic Development and Collective Security are Two Sides of the Same Coin

Economic development and collective security are intrinsically linked, as sustainable progress toward prosperity is essential for lasting peace. With nearly half of the world's extreme poor in conflict-affected countries by 2030, the World Bank emphasizes the importance of development assistance in enhancing security and supporting economic growth, governance, and resilience against shocks like climate change and global conflicts.

WORLD BANK • VOICES / AXEL VAN TROTSENBURG & PABLO SAAVEDRA

Urgent Need to Address Liquidity Pressures in Developing Countries

Developing countries face unprecedented liquidity pressures with ballooning debt payments and dwindling access to capital, risking a deepening of their debt vulnerabilities. Immediate liquidity support in 2024 and 2025 is crucial to prevent these temporary pressures from turning into long-term solvency issues, highlighting the critical need for a concerted global response to safeguard progress in the world's poorest nations.

PUBLICATIONS

WORLD BANK • FEBRUARY 2024

Global Food Security Update

Since the last update on February 1, 2024, the agricultural market has seen mixed trends with agriculture and export price indices rising by 3 percent and 10 percent respectively, while the cereal price index dipped by 2 percent. Despite the general stability in global commodity markets and the lowest export prices in two years for wheat, maize, and soybean, domestic food price inflation remains stubbornly high across all income levels. Rice prices have surged by nearly one-third due to El Niño-related production shortfalls and export limitations by India, as reported by the February 2024 Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) Market Monitor.

JHU SAIS FPI • THE SAIS REVIEW

Water Wars: Conflict and Diplomacy

In this latest issue of the SAIS Review of International Affairs, the Editorial Board seeks to explore the millenia-long trend of conflict over water continues across the world in contemporary politics. Control over water resources has been a catalyst for conflict and competition since the beginning of human civilization. In fact, access to water has arguably been the primary factor in human advancement and progress. Water is, thus, an elemental factor in the creation of both society and conflict, a factor that remains fundamental in contemporary affairs.

GECF • FEBRUARY 2024

Monthly Gas Market Report (MGMR)

The GECF's February 2024 edition of the Monthly Gas Market Report (MGMR) provides essential insights on the global gas market developments, including a detailed analysis of gas consumption and production, international gas trade, gas storage, pricing trends, and the impact of the global economy on the gas markets.

WORLD BANK • NATIONAL COUNCIL OF WOMEN (EGYPT)

Egyptian Gender Equity Seal (EGES) Certification

To boost gender equity within Egypt's private sector, the World Bank has revitalized the Egyptian Gender Equity Seal (EGES) certification in collaboration with the National Council for Women and backing from the UK embassy. This certification, inspired by the World Bank’s Gender Equity Model (GEM), sets benchmarks for recruitment, career development, work-family balance, and sexual harassment policies. It outlines specific actions to meet the objectives in promoting gender equity across the workforce.

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Stay informed.

Stay ahead.

See the latest analyses and posts by FPI Senior Fellow & Executive Director of The North Africa Initiative (NAI)

Hafed Al-Ghwell

Also, catch Hafed's latest and other columns in Arab News.

You can contact the North Africa Initiative (NAI) by emailing:

Lana Bleik

Senior Research Program Coordinator 

The Maghreb Weekly is produced by the North Africa Initiative of the Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) Foreign Policy Institute with a focus on developments that impact the region's dynamics. This weekly digest includes an overview of the latest published research, studies and reports from think tanks and policy centers, covering long-term perspectives and analyses of North Africa's challenges and opportunities.