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January 21, 2024
Key Takeaways:
- If anyone has a better way to free the remaining hostages and end Hamas's terrorism and rocket attacks against Israel, I have yet to hear it. If anyone knows of any country in history declining to protect its citizens–the first duty of government–for fear that the enemy’s civilian population might get hurt or out of concern that the government that attacked would not care if its civilians were hurt, please let me know.
- Israel is not committing genocide but if you think that the death count in Gaza requires an immediate ceasefire by Israel, you are asking for a world order where brutal terrorists can get away with murder, torture, rape, and kidnapping if they use civilians as human shields. That’s not a world I want to live in. That is not what international law requires.
- We all want a ceasefire. The question is what kind of ceasefire: A ceasefire where only Israel ceases fire, the hostages remain in captivity, and Hamas buys time to re-arm and repeat October 7 or a lasting ceasefire that includes releasing all hostages and an end to Hamas terrorism. If you think Hamas would never agree to the latter then you understand why Israel cannot agree to a unilateral ceasefire.
- The question opponents of Israel's military action cannot answer is what Israel should do instead. It's the inverse of the Iran Deal. Ultimately, opponents of the deal could not come up with a better alternative, and no deal was not a better alternative. Now, proponents of a unilateral, immediate ceasefire (Israel just stops fighting) cannot explain how that stops Hamas, frees the hostages, or results in anything but capitulation to terrorism and an invitation to Hamas to do it again. The hostages who are still alive don't have "time for diplomacy."
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Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's insistence on Thursday that Israel must control all territory west of the Jordan River is antithetical to the two-state solution that Israel needs to secure its future as a Jewish, democratic state and proves that neither the Palestinian Authority nor Israel has leadership prepared to move forward constructively.
- The Biden administration continues to support Israel's safety and security and reject calls to put pressure on Israel. Republicans have yet to bring President Biden’s aid package, which includes $14.3 billion for Israel, to the floor for an up or down vote. But they are lining up behind Donald Trump, whose long history of antisemitic rhetoric and mockery of democracy should concern everyone who supports the values that undergird the U.S.-Israel relationship.
Read to the end for corrections, what you may have missed last week, fun stuff, and our upcoming event with Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA).
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Hi Steve,
We are not OK. The emotional toll since October 7 is weighing on everyone. Hamas murdered 1,200 people, murdering more Jews on any one day since the Holocaust. Hamas holds 136 hostages, including Kfir Bibas, who turned one year old on Thursday, and at least 27 whom they've murdered. Every minute matters for those still alive.
Hamas continues to release cruel hostage videos. We keep learning more about its barbarism, its savage sexual violence on October 7, and its horrible mistreatment of hostages. Terrorism continues within Israel, Hamas continues to fire rockets into Israel, and here in the U.S., anti-Israel protesters target Jewish restaurants, hospitals, congressional offices, and the White House.
This new music video from John Ondrasik captures the mood.
But the pendulum is shifting. As hard as it is, Americans and the world–in part due to the forum that South Africa unwittingly provided Israel to make its case against false genocide allegations–are seeing that Hamas is not fighting for freedom and against occupation. Hamas is a vicious, ISIS-like terrorist organization whose tactics are abhorrent to all decent people.
On January 16, Representatives Lois Frankel (D-FL), Mario Díaz-Balart (R-FL), Kathy Manning (D-NC), and Jen Kiggans (R-VA) introduced a House Resolution to forcefully condemn Hamas’s use of rape and sexual violence as weapons of war on and since October 7. Rep. Frankel’s office told me that “this is just one initiative of a larger effort by Rep. Frankel to make clear that in Israel or anywhere else in the world, rape and sexual violence are unacceptable tools of war.” Who could be against this? Check to see if your member of Congress is a cosponsor, and urge them to cosponsor if they are not.
Americans and the world are seeing what Israel is up against and why any ceasefire that does not include releasing all hostages and replacement of Hamas in Gaza by another entity is unacceptable. Despite political pressure from well-meaning and not-so-well-meaning groups, and despite needless provocation from members of Israel’s government, the Biden-Harris administration remains committed to Israel’s safety and security and understands that Israel cannot allow October 7 to be repeated.
After October 7, many of us compared the numbers in Israel, with a population of nine million, to the numbers in the United States, with a population of 330 million. The equivalent of October 7 in the U.S. would be 44,000 brutally murdered in one day, 108,000 injured, and 8,600 Americans taken hostage with no access to the Red Cross. Plus widespread sexual violence, both on October 7 and ongoing against the hostages. How do you think America would react? How would you react?
But the analogy is flawed. Even if 44,000 Americans were murdered and 8,600 taken hostage, many Americans would not have a personal connection—many would not personally know the victims or know someone who knew the victims. Many Americans might live hundreds or thousands of miles from the attack site. In Israel, everyone knows someone who was directly affected or someone who knows someone who was directly affected. No Israeli lives more than 300 miles from Gaza and every Israeli lives within Hamas or Hezbollah rocket range (Hamas has fired more than 11,000 rockets into Israel since October 7). Thank goodness for Iron Dome, but Iron Dome is not perfect–if it was, Israelis would not have to run to bomb shelters again and again on seconds notice.
Would you want to live that way? Wouldn’t you demand that your government solve this problem? And if someone said, “but other people might get hurt,” would you say "well, in that case, we’ll just let bygones be bygones"?
I am not aware of any country in history declining to protect its citizens–the first duty of government–for fear that the enemy’s civilian population might get hurt or out of concern that the government that attacked would not care if its civilians were hurt.
It has been 107 days since October 7. Israel could have flattened Gaza on day one and guaranteed safety for its citizens. It could have delayed its ground invasion until it was safer for its soldiers (at least 193 Israeli soldiers have fallen in battle since October 7). Instead, Israel chose to risk the lives of its soldiers and subject its civilian population to continuing rocket attacks from Hamas.
Contrary to what TV reports imply, Israel is not indiscriminately bombing. It is attempting to hit legitimate military targets that are hidden in densely populated areas, and it is risking the lives of its own soldiers to reduce civilian casualties. Of the 23,000 deaths that Hamas claims, some resulted from Hamas rockets landing in Gaza, and Israel says that 9,000 are Hamas terrorists.
If you think that the horrible death count in Gaza requires an immediate ceasefire, you are asking for a world order where brutal terrorists can get away with murder, torture, rape, and kidnapping as long as they use civilians as human shields. That’s not a world I want to live in. As John Spencer (who wrote the book on urban warfare) explains, Israel is fighting a war no country has fought before, against an enemy–Hamas, not the Palestinian people–whose raison d’etre is genocide. Hamas is not fighting to “end the occupation” (its atrocities would be unjustified even if it were) but to end Israel and kill Jews. As is becoming increasingly clear, that’s what those who support Hamas around the world support.
A ceasefire where Israel agrees to stop fighting and Hamas buys time to rearm is not a ceasefire but a surrender. It takes two to cease fire. Israel would agree to a ceasefire predicated on returning every hostage, dismantling Hamas, and a credible international force in Gaza to ensure peace. A massive Marshall plan to rebuild Gaza and allow Palestinians to return to their homes would be essential. Most members of Congress asking for a ceasefire are not asking for an unconditional ceasefire, but ceasefires predicated on conditions similar to these.
On January 18, the European Parliament adopted a resolution calling "for a permanent ceasefire and to restart efforts towards a political solution provided that all hostages are immediately and unconditionally released and the terrorist organisation Hamas is dismantled." That's the type of ceasefire everyone concerned about the death toll in Gaza should support.
Moral calculus requires more than the arithmetic of adding up death on each side. Hamas committed unimaginable atrocities and continues to hold 136 hostages. Israel’s goal is to eliminate a threat no state would tolerate. This can only end with a commitment from both Israel and the Palestinian Authority to a two-state solution, the elimination of Hamas as a terrorist threat, and releasing all hostages.
You want a ceasefire? You want the killing in Gaza to stop? So do I. Absolutely. Join me in demanding that Hamas release all of the hostages now. No ceasefire is possible until then. As President Biden said on day 100, “no one should have to endure even one day of what they have gone through, much less 100.”
Israel is not committing genocide. People die and are displaced during wars. That’s why wars are bad. Unfortunately, while war should be the last option, sometimes it is the only option. If Israel is committing genocide, then nearly every war is a genocide, and the term becomes meaningless.
As Secretary of State Antony Blinken said, “the charge of genocide is meritless. It’s particularly galling, given that those who are attacking Israel – Hamas, Hizballah, the Houthis, as well as their supporter, Iran – continue to openly call for the annihilation of Israel and the mass murder of Jews.”
The key to establishing genocide, by definition, is establishing intent, which is a high bar. As Tal Becker argued before the International Court of Justice on January 12, “the key component of genocide — the intention to destroy a people, in whole or in part — is totally lacking. What Israel seeks by operating in Gaza is not to destroy a people, but to protect a people — its people, who are under attack on multiple fronts — and to do so in accordance with the law, even as it faces a heartless enemy determined to use that very commitment against it.”
None of this excuses inflammatory statements made by Israel’s far-right ministers that South Africa used as evidence of intent. Pro-Israel Jewish members of Congress joined the State Department in condemning their remarks and as Michael Koplow points out, we cannot and should not minimize the danger they pose. Genocide might be what certain members of Israel’s government intend. But it is not what the government of Israel intends.
Prime Minister Netanyahu’s reference to Amalek was not a call for genocide. But his opposition to a Palestinian state proves that the Palestinians are not the only parties to the conflict with leadership unwilling to take necessary steps for peace. Netanyahu said on Thursday that Israel must control all territory west of the Jordan River, the functional equivalent of from the river to the sea. Eradicating Hamas is a necessary but not sufficient condition for peace. Only a two-state solution will ensure Israel's future as a Jewish, democratic state, and that requires new leadership in Israel and the Palestinian Authority.
Instead of blocking roads, airports, and train stations (and then rallying to have the charges dropped), people who want a ceasefire should be protesting against Hamas and its supporters, including Qatar and Iran. They, not Israel, are at fault, and they have it within their power to achieve a ceasefire tomorrow if they would release the hostages today.
The situation in Gaza is horrible. The solution is not to pressure Israel to sacrifice its citizens but to pressure Hamas to do what is right: Release the hostages–for which it had no justification to kidnap–end hostilities, and allow international peacekeepers into Gaza.
The Biden administration is correct not to pressure Israel. State Department spokesperson Matt Miller explained on January 18 that we don't "need to offer any kind of pressure. The pressure is reality ... without a tangible path to the establishment of a Palestinian state, there are no other partners in the region who are going to step forward and help with the reconstruction of Gaza. There are no other partners in the region who are going to step forward and help establish Palestinian-led governance of Gaza. There are no other partners in the region who are going to step forward and integrate with Israel and make further assurances about Israel’s long-term security ... It’s not the United States exerting pressure or not, it’s the reality of the situation that Israel faces, and without making some of these tough choices that we’ve outlined, that will continue to be the reality and there will be no actual solutions to any of those very real short, medium, and long-term problems.
"So our support for Israel remains ironclad, but that doesn’t mean that there are no differences between our two countries and that there will not be any differences between our two countries. We have differences with all of our allies ... The question is really more about the opportunity that Israel faces and whether they will grab it, because this is not a question of the United States pressuring them to do anything. This is about the United States laying out for them the opportunity that they have, in part because of the work that we did, that Secretary Blinken and that President Biden have done to talk with other countries in the region to make clear that there is a path for further integration. There is a path for real security assurances – but again, we can’t make those choices for anyone. They have to make them for themselves."
Whither the Republicans? Republican presidential candidates pretend to be friends of Israel but none have condemned House Republicans for voting to cut aid to Israel by 30% in September and attaching unreasonable conditions to President Biden's aid package, which includes $14.3 billion in emergency assistance for Israel. Republicans still refuse to call President Biden’s package to the floor for an up or down vote. Denying Congress even the chance to support aid for Israel for 93 days is not pro-Israel.
If democracy is a shared value, then supporting candidates who oppose democracy is not pro-Israel. Donald Trump won the Iowa caucuses and will be the Republican candidate for president. Trump’s lawyer said that the president could order the assassination of a political rival without being prosecuted unless Congress "impeaches and convicts" for it first. Listen for yourself.
Yet nearly half the country–which could be enough to get him elected president under our bizarre process–will vote for Trump in November. Any Republican who does not commit to voting for Biden over Trump is a Republican not fit for office, and any organization that supports Republicans under these circumstances is an organization unworthy of our support. Either this is serious or it isn’t. I think it is.
We should take Hamas at its word when it says it will repeat October 7. We should take Iran at its word when it says it wants to wipe Israel off the map. But we’re not going to take Trump at his word when he says he’ll be a dictator and argues in court that presidents have the right to assassinate Americans? We’re going to discount Trump’s long record of antisemitic rhetoric? If you are telling us to disregard what Trump says over and over, you’re telling us that you trust Hamas and Iran more than you trust the person you’re voting for.
Corrections. I'm entitled to my own opinions but not to my own facts, so I appreciate it when readers bring errors to my attention. No one brought any mistakes to my attention last week, so it looks like last week's newsletter was perfect.
In Case You Missed It:
- San Francisco Mayor London Breed's statement should be read by every mayor and every city council--and every government body that is not the United States Congress--before considering resolutions on Gaza that they possess neither the expertise nor mandate to consider.
- Jen Rubin: How Israel and the Palestinians go from war to peace. "Over time two peoples immersed in their own suffering will need to come to terms with a simple reality: Neither is going anywhere. Contrary to Hamas’s genocidal fantasy, Israel is not going to disappear. Likewise, Israelis must acknowledge that the bigoted view held by Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich that Palestinians can be ignored and denied self-determination defies reality."
- Do you have trouble reconciling concerns about antisemitism on campus with polling data showing that while nearly 80% of Jewish voters over age 35 view antisemitism on campus as a "very serious problem," only 37% of those aged 18-35 (the cohort on campus or most recently on campus) view it as a very serious problem? Then read this analysis from Musa al-Gharbi.
Tweets of the Week. Jeff Maurer and Paige Moskowitz.
Twitter Thread of the Week. Daniel Bral.
Video Clips of the Week. Elon Gold, Joan Baez imitates Bob Dylan and this commercial.
Nikki Haley Mockery of the Week. Stuart Stevens (and the replies).
Upcoming Event. Please Join Dana Gordon, Steve Sheffey, Jill Zipin, and
Democratic Jewish Outreach PA PAC for a Zoom fundraiser for Senator Bob Casey (D-PA) on Tuesday, March 19, 2024, at 4:30 PM ET. RSVP here to get the Zoom link. This will be a close race and holding this seat is key to holding the Democratic Senate majority.
For those new to this newsletter. This is the newsletter even Republicans have to read and the original home of the viral and beloved 2022 and 2023 Top Ten Signs You're At a Republican Seder. If someone forwarded this to you, why not subscribe and get it in your inbox every Sunday? Just click here--it's free.
I periodically update my Medium posts on why Democrats are better than Republicans on Israel and antisemitism and on the IHRA definition of antisemitism. My definition of "pro-Israel" is here (it's a work in progress, as am I).
I hope you enjoyed today's newsletter. Donations are welcome (this takes time to write and costs money to send). If you'd like to chip in, click here and fill in the amount of your choice. If you see something that says "Save your info and create a PayPal account," click the button to the right and it will go away. You don't need a PayPal account. Or you can Venmo @Steven-Sheffey (last four phone digits are 9479). You can send a check too. But no crypto or gold bars.
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