With a chill in the air after a spectacular August, dealmakers are back in the office and expecting a robust proxy season with cash burning holes in activists’ pockets. Also, a new feature of this newsletter: If you want to listen to this newsletter as you are shvitz-ing on a Peloton or taking an early morning walk, here’s the link.
Autumn is, of course, a fun time in New York with U.S. Open finals, Feast of San Gennaro, new restaurants, shows on Broadway, art exhibits, and Mets and Yankees trundling towards the most expensive wild card berths ever. And we will not discuss New York football (In fact, let us know if anyone wants free Jets tickets. Section 131, 8th row, two parking passes).
While activist investors were hobnobbing out East sipping Hamptons Water and jostling for seats at Duryea’s or Lucky’s, their junior analysts were toiling away over the past month in empty air-conditioned office towers running their screens for potential activist opportunities for the Spring annual meeting season.
Recent 13F filings show that activists such as Carl Icahn (the O.G.), Dan Loeb and Elliott have taken a bunch of new stakes and could portend a busy winter. In addition, with mergers and acquisitions picking up, experts believe that activism-related mergers and acquisitions will, as well. Of course, as the Wall Street Journal notes, so have break-ups.
We spoke to our friend Josh Black, Editor-in-Chief of Diligent Market Intelligence and a longtime activist watcher. Here’s his view:
“With strong merger and acquisition volumes over the summer and surprisingly high deal-related activist demands in August, I expect deal activism to be a strong theme over the proxy season. But life won’t be easy for dealmakers. Push-for-sale campaigns and opposition to mergers and acquisitions typically have a push-pull relationship, with oppose-sale efforts increasing shortly after activists increase agitation for transactions. History suggests opposition gains strength toward year-end, setting up a lively finish to 2025. And with push-for-sale demands historically strong right after annual results and around nomination deadlines, boards and investors alike should be prepared for another wave of deal-related battles early next year.”
Buckle up and have a great weekend,
GPP Team
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