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Herold & Lantern Investments would like to wish you all a happy and safe July 4th holiday. Our offices and the financial markets will be closed Monday, July 4th.

Major Indexes For Week Ended 07/02/2022

Index Close Net Change % Change YTD YTD %
DJIA 31097.26  -403.42  -1.28  -5,241.04  -14.42 
NASDAQ 11127.84  -479.78  -4.13  -4,517.13  -28.87 
S&P500 3825.33  -86.41  -2.21  -940.85  -19.74 
Russell 2000 1727.76  -37.98  -2.15  -517.55  -23.05 
International 1832.34  -41.85  -2.23  -502.27  -21.51 
10-year bond 2.88  -0.24    1.37   
30-year T-bond 3.11  -0.14    1.21   
International index is MSCI EAFE index. Bond data reflect net change in yield, not price. Indices are unmanaged and you cannot directly invest in an index.

The Good News Is All This Bad News

Updated Published Friday, July 1, 2022 at: 7:41 PM EDT

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Bad news on the economy and stock market seem to be mounting, which may be a good sign. Here’s the bad and good news a long-term investor needs to know.  

The second quarter ended on Thursday, June 30, 2022, with the Standard & Poor’s losing -16.5% in the three-month period. It was the worst quarter since the onset of the pandemic in the first quarter of 2020, when stocks plunged -19.6%.

The first-half of 2022 was the worst six-month start to any year since 1970, according to Dow Jones Market Data; the S&P 500 price index plunged -21%, according to Standard & Poor’s.   

In addition, economic fundamentals were also weaker, according to government data released this past week.  


The Institute of Supply Management report on purchasing activity in the manufacturing sector dropped to 53%. An index reading of 50% or more is positive. Though the index is still positive, manufacturing purchasing activity has been in a stair-step plunge for 13 months, and the pipeline of new orders is weak. One of 10 components in the index, New Orders slowed to 49.2%, which was below the 50% demarcation line separating growth from contraction -- not a good sign. “The manufacturing economy is growing but at a slowing rate and perhaps headed for recessionary readings,” says economist Fritz Meyer. 

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Inflation is cutting into real income. According to data released this past week, real disposable personal income (DPI) per capita was down -3.6% in the 12 months ended May 2022. To be clear, purchasing power shrunk. This chart highlights the after-inflation impact of reduction in DPI per capita in the last 12 months.  

The savings rate of Americans has declined sharply, indicating consumers are tapping cash built up in 2020 and 2021, when unemployment benefits increased, and the U.S. Government made transfer payments to keep the economy from contracting sharply during the pandemic at an unprecedented level. 

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The good news is that a crescendo of bad news in the past marked a bottom. “When the S&P 500 has fallen at least 15% the first six months of the year, as it did in 1932, 1939, 1940, 1962 and 1970, it has risen an average of 24% in the second half,” according to Dow Jones Market Data.

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The Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index closed this Friday at 3,825.33. The index gained +1.06% from Thursday and +2.23% from last week. The index is up +52.38% from the March 23, 2020, bear market low and down -22.5% from the January 3rd all-time high. 

Nothing contained herein is to be considered a solicitation, research material, an investment recommendation, or advice of any kind, and it is subject to change without notice. Any investments or strategies referenced herein do not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific person. Product suitability must be independently determined for each individual investor. Tax advice always depends on your particular personal situation and preferences. You should consult the appropriate financial professional regarding your specific circumstances. The material represents an assessment of financial, economic and tax law at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events or a guarantee of future results. Forward-looking statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. It is not guaranteed as to accuracy, does not purport to be complete, and is not intended to be used as a primary basis for investment decisions. This article was written by a professional financial journalist for Advisor Products and is not intended as legal or investment advice.

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The above referenced information was obtained from reliable sources, however Herold & Lantern Investments cannot guarantee its accuracy. Opinions expressed herein are subject to change. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Asset allocation and diversification do not assure a profit or protect against losses in declining markets. Any information given on the site is informational and illustrative but does not recommend actions as the information may not be appropriate to all situations. It is important that you consider your tolerance for risk and investment goals when making investment decisions. Investing in securities does involve risk and the potential of losing money. Links to other sites are provided for your convenience. Herold & Lantern Investments do not endorse, verify or attest to the accuracy of the content of the web sites that are linked and accept no responsibility for their use or content. Herold & Lantern Investments do not provide tax, accounting or legal advice.

Bad Signs Darken Economic Outlook
Standard & Poors 500
Delayed Data
As of Jul 01
 +39.95 / +1.06%
Today’s Change