T his Week from Jesse Hurst
Jesse W. Hurst, II
CFP® CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™
AIF ® ACCREDITED INVESTMENT FIDUCIARY
 
What Are We Fighting Over?

We continue to try to arm you with information to be a more informed voter as we head into the 2020 elections. Today's topic is not one that you hear a lot about, it is not easily understood in a twenty second YouTube video or Tweet. The issue is emblematic of the denial and inability to deal with long-term structural issues within our Washington DC institutions. These issues are difficult to deal with and will likely cause a fair amount of shared pain for many people. They are therefore not the sexy, headline grabbing issues that people like to bring up on the campaign trail.
 
Today's topic is how much money Congress gets to allocate and spend after all required spending is taken into account. Required spending includes the money that goes towards entitlement programs such as Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. It also includes defense spending in the interest that we pay on our national debt, which is rising rapidly.
 
After all of this is paid, Congress gets to decide what to do with the remainder. This number as a percentage of federal revenues has been declining for decades. As you can see from the chart below, it hovered around 60% throughout the 1960s. It subsequently dropped into the 40% range from 1980 to approximately 2000.
 
After the dot.com bubble, the subprime mortgage crisis and the Great Recession, the number fell precipitously and is on a steady downward trend. This year what Congress gets to allocate is a mere 11% of what is collected in tax revenues. Fixing a problem of this magnitude requires vision and the courage to confront this openly to constituents who are NOT going to like what has happened over the last 50+ years in Washington DC.
 
Dr. Eugene Steuerle of the Urban Institute has been tracking this for decades. A link to his article is here . There is also a short video link here . It visually illustrates what is talked about above and it is well worth the 50 seconds it takes to watch.
 
At some point, we are going to have to hold our elected officials accountable. It would be great if we could overcome our differences and start holding them accountable with the upcoming election. It would help us put the country and the economy on a better course for a future that our children could look forward to. I think it's important as we keep "Moving Life Forward", for all of us. 


Jesse




Weekly Market Commentary
November 4, 2019
 

The Markets
 
They did it.
 
The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates last week, as expected. There were no enthusiastic fans singing the Baby Shark song, but the Federal Open Market Committee's decision was well received.
 
Reuters reported, "Gaps between market expectations and the Fed's own outlook have been wide at times this year, a source of concern for policymakers who don't want to kowtow to markets, but also don't want to surprise or disrupt them. But, the two are now roughly in line with the idea that the Fed is on hold and the economy continuing to chug along, a fact highlighted by data showing 128,000 jobs were created in October..."
 
Last week's unemployment report was full of good news. It reported job gains and moderate pay increases, according to Barron's, but there was a counterintuitive twist. The unemployment rate increased even though the economy added new jobs. That was good news, too, because it meant more people are returning to the workforce.
 
The only bad news was found in manufacturing. The October ISM manufacturing index ticked higher, but remains in contraction territory. CNBC reported, "Manufacturing has been at the heart of the economy's sluggishness, with a drop in business investment a big reason for the third quarter's sluggish 1.9 percent [economic] growth pace."
 
Barron's attributed softness in manufacturing to the ongoing U.S.-China trade war.
 
By the end of the day on Friday, the Standard & Poor's 500 Index had closed at a record high three times in five days. The Nasdaq Composite also reached a record high.


Data as of 11/1/19
1-Week
Y-T-D
1-Year
3-Year
5-Year
10-Year
Standard & Poor's 500 (Domestic Stocks)
1.5%
22.3%
11.9%
13.3%
8.7%
11.4%
Dow Jones Global ex-U.S.
1.2
13.4
8.1
5.6
1.9
2.8
10-year Treasury Note (Yield Only)
1.7
NA
3.2
1.8
2.4
3.4
Gold (per ounce)
-0.3
17.7
22.3
5.4
5.3
3.6
Bloomberg Commodity Index
1.0
4.6
-4.0
-1.7
-7.4
-4.9
S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance, MarketWatch, djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.


What will we do with parking garages?
As the popularity of ride-sharing services and personal transportation options (like scooters and bicycles) grows, the need for cars in urban areas may diminish.
 
The arrival of autonomous vehicles could reduce demand even further.
 
Pew Research explained, "By 2030, 15 percent of new cars sold will be totally autonomous, according to one estimate. One in 10 will be shared. And, as it becomes easier for people to summon shared or autonomous cars when they need them, fewer people will want to own their own vehicle, meaning fewer cars overall."
 
So, what's going to happen to all of the parking garages?
 
There are a lot of interesting ideas about how parking garages might be repurposed. Some companies plan to reserve the spaces for autonomous vehicles. Others are remodeling garages to accommodate businesses and services.
 
For example, one company is buying properties with the intention of turning them into "commercial kitchens for delivery-only restaurants and other consumer services." Other possibilities include:
  • Recreational areas
  • Gyms
  • Movie theaters
  • E-commerce distribution centers
  • Flood protection areas
  • Urban farms
  • Apartment buildings
The co-CEO of an architecture and design firm told Axios News, "An obvious and functional challenge we face is that these structures were not originally designed for human habitation. These spaces often require us to raise the floor height, level the floors between ramps and incorporate design techniques that bring natural light into the space."
 
Redeveloping parking garages may be challenging and costly, but it could create opportunities for investors.

Weekly Focus - Think About It

"Before you become too entranced with gorgeous gadgets and mesmerizing video displays, let me remind you that information is not knowledge, knowledge is not wisdom, and wisdom is not foresight. Each grows out of the other, and we need them all."
                                                                          --Arthur C. Clarke, Science fiction writer and futurist


Best regards, 
 
Jesse Hurst CFP ®, AIF®
Investment Advisor Representative
 
Impel Wealth Management 
 
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* These views are those of Carson Coaching, and not the presenting Representative or the Representative's Broker/Dealer, and should not be construed as investment advice.
* This newsletter was prepared by Carson Coaching. Carson Coaching is not affiliated with the named broker/dealer.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
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