This Week from Jesse Hurst
Jesse W. Hurst, II
CFP® CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™
AIF® ACCREDITED INVESTMENT FIDUCIARY


Impel Wealth to Host Upcoming Webinar

2020 Half-Time
An Unforgettable Year and it's NOT Over Yet!!




Sometimes, a little humor helps. 2020 is a year for the record books. A year that will be etched in our memories for the rest of our lives. A year that we will tell our grandchildren and great grandchildren about -- and we are only six months in!
 
In our continuing effort to keep you, the trusted friends and clients of Impel Wealth Management, informed about what is going on with the economy and financial markets, we are hosting our next Zoom webinar on Wednesday, August 12th at 4pm.
  
We will be discussing what comes next as we continue re-opening the economy and assessing the impact of government and central bank stimulus. When will we find a vaccine, therapy, or cure? Having a treatment or preventative could go a long way toward improving consumer confidence. Will there be a second wave of COVID-19? We do not know yet, but the number of cases has risen in several areas.
 
During our time together we will be reviewing the following major questions:
 
1)      Where Have We Been?
2)      Where Are We Now?
3)      Where May We Be Going?
 
We have an alphabet soup of recovery paths. Various letters (V, U, L, W, etc.) describe the potential shape of an economic recovery. We have uncertainty surrounding the potential policies and outcomes of the upcoming Presidential and Congressional election. Historically, this has added an element of volatility to the markets in the months leading up to the election.
 
While it is tempting to respond to recent events, especially frightening ones, making decisions based on emotion is rarely the right choice. We will be sharing ideas and information to help you make good decisions about your financial future. Please join us by clicking the link below to register
 
We have had several clients reach out to us about sharing our webinars with their family, friends, and coworkers.  To that end, we encourage you to pass this invitation on to them so they can join us. Additionally, here is a link to the Impel Wealth Management You Tube channel where you can learn more on the Webinar.


 Register  HERE
 
 Jesse Hurst, CFP, AIF
 

Weekly Market Commentary
August 3, 2020
 

The Markets
 
Last week delivered a mixed bag of financial and economic news.

As many expected, the U.S. economy did not fare well during the second quarter. COVID-19 lockdowns and business closings caused productivity to fall by one-third. Real gross domestic product, which is the value of all goods and services produced by our country, dropped 32.9 percent during the second quarter of 2020, reported the Bureau of Economic Analysis. During the first quarter of the year, productivity fell by 5 percent.

The Federal Reserve held its Federal Open Market Committee meeting last week. Fed Chair Jerome Powell committed to "...using our tools to do what we can, and for as long as it takes, to provide some relief and stability, to ensure that the recovery will be as strong as possible, and to limit lasting damage to the economy."

Powell also said, "Elected officials have the power to tax and spend and to make decisions about where we, as a society, should direct our collective resources. The fiscal policy actions that have been taken thus far have made a critical difference to families, businesses, and communities across the country. Even so, the current economic downturn is the most severe in our lifetimes."

Our elected officials were unable to reach an agreement about how to support unemployed Americans whose jobs disappeared because of COVID-19. Enhanced unemployment benefits and a moratorium on evictions both expired at the end of last week. Congress met over the weekend and officials indicated they had made progress in negotiations, reported The Washington Post.

Earnings offered a glimmer of positive news for investors. Al Root of Barron's reported, "...companies are crushing overly bearish estimates...More than 300 [Standard & Poor's 500 Index] companies have reported second-quarter numbers so far. About 85 percent are beating Wall Street earnings estimates by an average of 22 percent."

Overall, blended earnings for the Standard & Poor's 500 Index (S&P 500) has declined 35.7 percent. If that is the actual change in earnings for the second quarter, it would be the biggest year-over-year decline since the fourth quarter of 2008 when earnings dropped 69.1 percent.

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composites both gained last week. The Dow Jones Industrial Index finished the week lower.


Data as of 7/31/20
1-Week
Y-T-D
1-Year
3-Year
5-Year
10-Year
Standard & Poor's 500 (Domestic Stocks)
1.4%
1.3%
9.8%
9.8%
9.2%
11.3%
Dow Jones Global ex-U.S.
-0.3
-8.2
-1.2
-1.0
1.0
2.0
10-year Treasury Note (Yield Only)
0.5
NA
2.0
2.3
2.2
3.0
Gold (per ounce)
8.7
29.0
37.6
15.7
12.3
5.2
Bloomberg Commodity Index
3.3
-15.1
-13.0
-6.6
-5.6
-6.6

S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance, MarketWatch, djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.


FAST FOOD FOR THOUGHT.

 In 1986, The Economist developed a tasty way to assess whether currencies are trading as they should be: The Big Mac Index. 
 
In theory, countries' exchange rates should allow a person to buy the same product - in this case, a burger - for the same amount of money in any currency. In reality, currencies are often undervalued or overvalued. When an analyst says a country's currency is undervalued relative to the U.S. dollar, it means a burger costs less in that country than it does in the United States.

For example, in June 2020, a fancy burger cost about $5.71 in the United States. In Britain, it cost £3.39, which is about $4.46 using last week's exchange rate. That makes a British burger a lot less expensive than a U.S. burger. If the currencies were aligned properly, the burger should have cost £4.34. So, the British pound is undervalued relative to the U.S. dollar.

In June, visitors to Switzerland paid more for burgers than they would have in the United States. A Swiss burger cost SFr6.50 or about $7.15 in June 2020. If the currencies were aligned, the burger would have cost about SFr5.19.

The cheapest burger in the world was found in South Africa, where it sold for 31.00 rand or $1.83 in June. If the currencies had been in parity, then a South African burger would have cost 96.97 rand. You also can buy a burger for less in China. The Economist explained, "A [burger] costs 21.70 yuan in China and $5.71 in the United States...[This] suggests the Chinese yuan is 45.7 percent undervalued."

The Big Mac Index should be taken with a grain of salt. It's an imprecise tool some economists find hard to swallow because the price of a burger should be lower in countries with lower labor costs, and higher in countries with higher labor costs. When index prices are adjusted for labor, the Thai baht and Brazilian real are the world's most overvalued currencies relative to the U.S. dollar, while the Hong Kong dollar and the Russian ruble are the most undervalued.
 
Weekly Focus - Think About It

 "There are basically two types of people. People who accomplish things, and people who claim to have accomplished things. The first group is less crowded."

--Mark Twain, Humorist
 
 
Best regards, 
 
Jesse Hurst CFP ®, AIF®
Invesmtent Advisor Representative
 
Impel Wealth Management 
 
P.S.  Please feel free to forward this commentary to family, friends, or colleagues. If you would like us to add them to the list, please reply to this e-mail with their e-mail address and we will ask for their permission to be added.
  
Securities and advisory services offered through Cetera Advisors LLC, member FINRA/SIPC, a broker/dealer and a Registered Investment Adviser. Cetera is under separate ownership from any other named entity.
* These views are those of Carson Coaching, and not the presenting Representative, the Representative's Broker/Dealer, or Registered Investment Advisor, and should not be construed as investment advice.
* This newsletter was prepared by Carson Coaching. Carson Coaching is not affiliated with the named firm or broker/dealer.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client's portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the afternoon gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association. The gold price is set twice daily by the London Gold Fixing Company at 10:30 and 15:00 and is expressed in U.S. dollars per fine troy ounce.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as "The Dow," is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal.
* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.
* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* The risk of loss in trading commodities and futures can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The high degree of leverage is often obtainable in commodity trading and can work against you as well as for you. The use of leverage can lead to large losses as well as gains.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.
* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.
* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.
* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.

* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
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Sources: 
https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2020-07/gdp2q20_adv_0.pdf https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20200729.pdf https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/white-house-officials-democratic-leaders-convene-rare-weekend-talks-as-unemployment-benefits-expire-for-millions/2020/08/01/9637d21a-d3f8-11ea-8c55-61e7fa5e82ab_story.html (or go to https://peakcontent.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/+Peak+Commentary/08-03-20_TheWashingtonPost-Both_Sides_Say_Progress_Made_in_Talks_on_Pandemic_Relief-Footnote_3.pdf) https://www.barrons.com/articles/dow-jones-industrial-average-drops-42-points-as-investors-stay-wary-51596245732 (or go to https://peakcontent.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/+Peak+Commentary/08-03-20_Barrons-Why_this_Rally_Still_has_Room_to_Run-Footnote_4.pdf) https://www.factset.com/hubfs/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_073120A.pdf https://www.barrons.com/market-data?mod=BOL_TOPNAV (or go to https://peakcontent.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/+Peak+Commentary/08-03-20_Barrons-Market_Data-Footnote_6.pdf) https://www.economist.com/news/2020/07/15/the-big-mac-index (or go to https://peakcontent.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/+Peak+Commentary/08-03-20_TheEconomist-The_Big_Mac_Index-Footnote_7.pdf) https://finance.yahoo.com/currency-converter/ (or go to https://peakcontent.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/+Peak+Commentary/08-03-20_YahooFinance-Currency_Converter-Footnote_8.pdf)
https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/mark_twain_393535

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Is there something we can help you with?  Please call me at 330.800.0182 or email me directly at [email protected].

Impel Wealth Management 
2006 4th Street, Cuyahoga Falls, OH 44221    
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