T his Week from Jesse Hurst
Jesse W. Hurst, II
CFP® CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™
AIF ® ACCREDITED INVESTMENT FIDUCIARY
 
The Health Insurance Challenge

As we head towards the 2020 Congressional and Presidential elections, I would like to continue to share information with you so that you can be a better-informed voter. It is my hope that in sharing this non-partisan data, that it will allow you to better filter what you hear on stage during the debates and from the various campaigns along the trail. 

One of the things that drives me crazy is how loosely candidates on BOTH sides of the aisle play with facts. Because very few people are informed enough to challenge them, it is easy for candidates to state whatever they want as fact, and to create a narrative that supports their viewpoint and policies. If you, our trusted friends and clients, understand the issues and the data more clearly, it will help you make good and informed decisions as you vet the candidates for various government offices.

 Healthcare is a hot topic. You are going to hear A LOT about it over the next twelve months from candidates on both sides. A recent study from the Kaiser Family Foundation shows that in calendar year 2019 the average price of health insurance has risen above $20,000 annually for families who obtain their coverage through their employer benefit plans. That is the equivalent of paying for a new, smaller vehicle, such as a Honda Civic ... EVERY YEAR. 
 
 The chart below shows how over the last 20 years the total cost for both the employer and employee contribution to family health insurance has nearly quadrupled. The increased cost is taking money that families and employers could use more productively towards other items, leaving them less disposable income. At some point, something has to give. Here is a link to the entire article and below is the chart.

 As you listen to the candidates drone on about this over the next 12 months, you will hear a lot of frustration and anger about the situation. However, what we really need, is practical solutions that help all Americans as we keep "Moving Life Forward" together. 


Jesse





Weekly Market Commentary
November 18, 2019
 

The Markets
 
The longest bull market in history showed no signs of slowing last week.
 
U.S. stock markets climbed higher for the sixth week straight - the longest rally in U.S. markets in two years - and the Dow Jones Industrial Average surpassed 28,000 for the very first time, reported Bloomberg. [1]
 
The Economist reported, "It has been a year of mood swings in financial markets. In the spring and summer, anxious investors piled into the safety of government bonds, driving yields down sharply. Yields have recovered in recent weeks...Equity prices in America have reached a new peak. But what is more striking is the performance of cyclical stocks relative to defensive ones. Within America's market the prices of industrial stocks, which do well in business-cycle upswings, have risen relative to the prices of utility stocks, a safer bet in hard times." [2]
 
Last week, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell confirmed the United States appears to be in good economic shape. The U.S. economic outlook remains favorable despite weakening business investment, which has slowed because of sluggish global growth and uncertainty surrounding trade. The unemployment rate remains low and more people are returning to the workforce, which is a positive development. Overall, Powell and his colleagues believe economic expansion is likely to continue. [3]
 
A similar phenomenon has occurred in European markets. [2]
 
Randall Forsyth of Barron's cited a source who stated, "...the global economic backdrop has, for the first time in 18 months, begun to improve." Forsyth went on to explain, "It's not just because of prospects of a trade deal. Recession risks have, well, receded. Growth may slow to a 1 percent annual rate in the current quarter, but odds of falling into an outright recession have slid." [4]
 
Whenever investors are happy and markets are moving higher, contrarians begin to ask questions. For example, a leading contrarian indicator is the Investors Intelligence Sentiment Survey. The survey queries investors and investment professionals about whether they are feeling bullish or bearish. When the ratio of bulls to bears is above 1.0, the market may be overly bullish. When it is less than 1.0, it may be too bearish. [5]
 
Yardeni Research  reported the ratio stood at 3.22 last week; 57 percent bulls and 18 percent bears. [6]


Data as of 11/15/19
1-Week
Y-T-D
1-Year
3-Year
5-Year
10-Year
Standard & Poor's 500 (Domestic Stocks)
0.9%
24.5%
14.3%
12.7%
8.9%
10.9%
Dow Jones Global ex-U.S.
-0.3
14.0
9.2
6.9
2.0
2.3
10-year Treasury Note (Yield Only)
1.8
NA
3.1
2.2
2.3
3.3
Gold (per ounce)
0.2
14.5
21.1
6.1
4.4
2.6
Bloomberg Commodity Index
-1.0
3.1
-4.5
-1.7
-7.6
-5.3
S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance, MarketWatch, djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.


In case you missed it, the winner was #435.
For the last five years, Katmai National Park and Preserve in Western Alaska has hosted 'Fat Bear Week' to celebrate bears as they prepare for hibernation. The participants are coastal brown bears who live along Alaska's Brooks River. [7]
 
The event helps people better understand hibernation. You may not have realized it, but bears spend the summer fattening up because they lose about one-third of their body weight during the winter. It's an interesting scientific phenomenon. [7, 8] The Katmai National Park Service website explained: [9]
 
"Hibernation is a state of dormancy that allows animals to avoid periods of famine. It takes many forms in mammals but is particularly remarkable in bears...After a summer and fall spent gorging on food, a bear's physiology and metabolism shifts in rather incredible ways to help them survive several months without food or water."
 
In Katmai, conservancy media rangers select twelve participants from among the park's 2,000 bears and post before-and-after photos on social media to showcase the effects of summer feasting. People near and far can participate by watching bear cams. There is even an ursine madness bracket where voters choose the fat bear that wins each pairing, and the crowd favorite moves on to the next match-up. [7]
 
This year, the Fat Bear Week champion was number 435, a.k.a. Holly. The Katmai announcement touting 435's win stated, "All hail Holly whose healthy heft will help her hibernate until the spring. Long live the Queen of Corpulence!" [8]


Weekly Focus - Think About It

"If we had no winter, the spring would not be so pleasant: if we did not sometimes taste of adversity, prosperity would not be so welcome."
                                                                                                                   --Anne Bradstreet, Poet [10]


Best regards, 
 
Jesse Hurst CFP ®, AIF®
Investment Advisor Representative
 
Impel Wealth Management 
 
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