T his Week from Jesse Hurst
Jesse W. Hurst, II
CFP® CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™
AIF ® ACCREDITED INVESTMENT FIDUCIARY
 
Keeping Current with Social Security

In late April, Mary Beth Franklin, a nationally known Social Security expert and author came to visit the Akron area. The University of Akron Foundation hosted her at Portage Country Club for an educational session which both Nathan Ollish, CFP®, and myself were able to attend.
 
Mary Beth gave some historical information about the last time the Social Security programs were updated and changed. This came from the 1983 Greenspan commission which was chaired by Alan Greenspan, long before he was Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank. 
 
At the time those changes were implemented, largely to ensure that the Social Security system would be solvent for the coming wave of baby boomers, 90% of all wages earned in the country were taxed for Social Security purposes. The hypothesis was that if this level of taxation was maintained, the system would stay solvent long-term. However today, only 83% of the wage base is currently taxed for FICA. The maximum amount of wages that are taxed for Social Security tops out at $132,900 currently. Increasing this to approximately $250,000 and indexing it for inflation would bring that number back in line with the 1983 goal.
 
The most recent annual Social Security Trustees report was recently released. It continues to show that the Social Security trust fund surplus is projected to deplete by calendar year 2034. It is also projected that once the surplus runs out, Social Security would be able to continue to pay benefits at approximately 77% of its current level just based on current collection of FICA payroll taxes.
 
We continue to watch the Social Security system with great interest. It is a foundational social safety net that provides a base of income that most people, including our clients, count on to provide for their retirement income needs. There are several levers that could be pulled, in varying degrees, that would make the system solvent and sustainable for many years to come. These include the payroll tax funding level, cost-of-living adjustments, and the age at which you can collect maximum Social Security benefits. We continue to watch and wonder when our Senators and Representatives on Capitol Hill will take this relatively simple-to-solve problem seriously and come up with real solutions.
 
This is the third time I have had the opportunity to hear Mary Beth Franklin speak about these topics throughout the years. I also regularly read her column in Investment News. She is extraordinarily well versed and an extremely well-respected resource for information on these topics. I am glad that Nathan and I had a chance to hear her latest information and thoughts. We take our continuing education and staying current on relevant topics to our clients extremely seriously. This is part of our commitment to our clients as we continue "Moving Life Forward" together.

Jesse




Weekly Market Commentary
June 10, 2019
 


The Markets
 
Surprise! It was a great week for markets.
 
Since the U.S.-China trade conflict resumed in early May, investors have been off balance. The possibility of escalating tariffs on Mexico heightened economic uncertainty. Then, last week's unemployment report arrived with less than stellar news - just 75,000 jobs were created in May. The number was well below expectations. The Bureau of Labor Statistics revised March and April employment numbers downward, too.
 
We know investors hate uncertainty. So, why did major U.S. indices rally?
 
The answer may be hope. There was hope negotiations with Mexico would produce results and tariffs would be avoided. There was hope trade issues with China, in tandem with less-than-stellar economic news, would encourage the Federal Reserve to cut rates. There was hope lower rates would stimulate the economy and lift share prices higher.
 
Investors were right about Mexico and tariffs.
 
On Saturday, The Wall Street Journal reported the United States and Mexico reached a last-minute agreement on immigration that takes tariffs off the table for now. It was good news. Before the agreement was reached, the vice president of the Center for Automotive Research told PBS NewsHour, "...the cost of a vehicle, a new vehicle in the U.S. is going to go up somewhere between $1,100 and $5,400 a vehicle...It will hit GDP, up to [a] $34 billion hit to GDP. And we would see almost 400,000 American jobs disappear."
 
Investors may be right about interest rates, too. Expectations for Fed rate cuts are rising. MarketWatch reported, "The fed fund futures market now show traders see a 72 percent chance of a rate cut at the Fed's July 31 meeting, and an around 23 percent probability of a rate cut in the June 19 meeting."
 
Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Standard & Poor's 500 Index each gained more than 4 percent. The Nasdaq Composite was up 3.9 percent.


Data as of 6/7/19
1-Week
Y-T-D
1-Year
3-Year
5-Year
10-Year
Standard & Poor's 500 (Domestic Stocks)
4.4%
14.6%
3.7%
10.8%
8.1%
11.8%
Dow Jones Global ex-U.S.
2.4
8.1
-8.6
4.2
-0.5
3.9
10-year Treasury Note (Yield Only)
2.1
NA
2.9
1.7
2.6
3.9
Gold (per ounce)
3.5
4.6
3.4
2.6
1.4
3.6
Bloomberg Commodity Index
-0.7
0.6
-14.3
-4.4
-10.4
-4.8
S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; the DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index does include reinvested dividends and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance, MarketWatch, djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.

How much is the wedding going to cost you?
You may not have noticed, but the average cost of weddings has risen sharply - and not just for the bride and groom and their parents. Costs have also increased for members of the wedding party and guests.
 
One reason for rising costs is the popularity of destination weddings. One-quarter of weddings take place far from home, as couples opt for sunset weddings on the beach in the Virgin Islands or nuptials shared under blossoming cherry trees in Washington, D.C. and Japan. TripSaavvy.com reported:
  • The average destination wedding has a budget of $28,000 for 48 guests.
  • Guests spend almost $700 to attend. Of course, international venues may have a higher price tag.
  • The honeymoon cost for a destination wedding averages about $8,200.
In a Fox News opinion article, Liberty Vittert, Professor of Practical Data Science at Washington University, offered her thoughts:
 
"Yes, we all know that the cost of weddings has become ridiculously exorbitant, at an average cost of $33,391 per wedding (that's almost $240 per guest). Meanwhile, the median household income in the United States is $59,039. It is so common to see this preposterous amount of money spent that it doesn't really faze me anymore...As a wedding guest to an in-town wedding, you need to account for clothing, transportation, gift, and (potentially) booze. That can easily amount to $300. If it is out of town, hold your horses. By adding in travel and accommodation costs, you can easily be up to $700...If you are in the wedding, just throw your wallet in the toilet and flush."
 
If you have relatives you'd rather not see, having your wedding on a mountaintop in Patagonia may be a sound choice. More than one-half of those surveyed said cost would prevent them from attending destination weddings.
 
There are other options. Couples could have small weddings near home or elope to exotic destinations and then have celebratory parties when they get home. Whoever is footing the bill would be able to bank the savings as an investment in the future.

Weekly Focus - Think About It

"Love recognizes no barriers. It jumps hurdles, leaps fences, penetrates walls to arrive at its destination full of hope."
                                                                                       --Maya Angelou, Poet and author

  
Best regards, 
 
Jesse Hurst CFP ®, AIF®
Invesmtent Advisor Representative
 
Impel Wealth Management 
 
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Securities and advisory services offered through Cetera Advisors LLC, member FINRA/SIPC, a broker/dealer and a Registered Investment Adviser. Cetera is under separate ownership from any other named entity.

* These views are those of Carson Coaching, and not the presenting Representative or the Representative's Broker/Dealer, and should not be construed as investment advice.
* This newsletter was prepared by Carson Coaching. Carson Coaching is not affiliated with the named broker/dealer.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
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* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.
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* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
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