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Keeping you up to date with Santa Cruz Real Estate
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Weekly Market Update
- The hottest zip code in the county this week in terms of the Market Action Index (ratio of inventory/homes selling) is Soquel (95073) with an index of 51 and a median list price of $2,572,500.
- 25 properties sold in the county this week with an average sale price of $1,385,285.
- There are 480 active for sale properties on the market here in Santa Cruz County. (it was 478 last week). Inventory in the county has stabilized over the last few weeks.
- The inventory increase we are seeing around the country and in Santa Cruz over the last 6 months is in large part due delayed buyer demand as opposed to an increase in sellers.
- Home prices are still rising despite higher mortgage rates simply because it’s rare for home prices to fall in general since 1942. If you take the market crash of 2007-2011 out of the equation, we have had only one year go negative; that was 1990, and that was only a 1% decline. We simply have too many home buyers in the market for prices to make a notable drop.
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Proposed Downtown Santa Cruz Rules Seek to Cap Building Heights
As the City of Santa Cruz moves forward with a plan to expand downtown, the Santa Cruz City Council on Tuesday is set to consider a strategy to temper new building heights and support below-market-rent homes. The proposed city rules seek to entice developers away from using the state rules that can allow unlimited height in favor of a city “Downtown Density Bonus.” Developers that use the Downtown Density Bonus would limit new builds to 12 stories with 75% more density than existing rules allow, or up to the heights approved in the Downtown Plan and Downtown Plan Expansion (85 feet or roughly eight stories in most areas) with no density restrictions.
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California Realtors Predicting a Rosier 2025 for Local Home Sales
The California Association of Realtors (C.A.R.) has recently released its 2025 housing and economic forecast, predicting a more favorable interest rate environment that will ease the current "lock-in" effect, leading to improved housing inventory. This shift is expected to encourage both buyers and sellers to re-enter the market, boosting home sales and prices next year. Here are 4 things to expect next year.
- Improved Market Conditions Expected: The California Association of Realtors (C.A.R.) forecasts a more favorable interest rate environment in 2025, which is expected to ease the "lock-in" effect, bringing both buyers and sellers back into the market and boosting home sales and inventory.
- Increase in Home Sales and Prices: Single-family home sales in California are projected to rise by 10.5% in 2025, reaching 304,400 units, while the median home price is expected to increase by 4.6% to $909,400.
- Lower Mortgage Rates to Drive Demand: Mortgage rates are forecast to drop to 5.9% in 2025, likely spurring demand, especially among first-time buyers, and providing more flexibility for sellers to move, thereby improving inventory levels.
- Steady Economic Growth with Moderate Inflation: California’s GDP growth is expected to slow to 1.1%, with inflation moderating to 2.0% in 2025. This stable economic backdrop, combined with an improving supply, is anticipated to maintain a competitive housing market in California.
World Property Journal, Michael Gerrity October 11, 2024
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-U.S. home sales hit slowest pace since post 2010 financial crash era: According to the latest data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), U.S. existing home sales continued to decline in September 2024. Sales dropped in three of the four major U.S. regions, while the West saw a slight rebound. Compared to the same month last year, sales decreased in three regions but increased in the West.
-Luxury housing markets in U.S. poised to outperform in 2025: Although cash buyers are more prevalent, high borrowing costs have dampened activity in luxury markets as well. Many prime buyers have wealth tied up in other asset classes that have been affected by rising rates, adding to uncertainty, which is further compounded by the upcoming November election. Nationwide, only 29 properties sold for $50 million or more in 2023, a 41% drop from two years ago, based on Miller Samuel data.
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Local Market Data
ALTOS Research Market Report
ALTOS RESEARCH MARKET REPORT IS AN INTERACTIVE, REAL-TIME REPORT. IT DISPLAYS THE CURRENT ACTIVITY FOR ANY MARKET YOU WISH.
| Click the buttons for each area below to learn more | | |
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Which Metro Areas are Seeing a Surge in Home Sellers?
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Inventory Growth Despite Market Conditions: Unsold home inventory rose by about 1% nationally this week, even with high mortgage rates and recent hurricanes. This is a modest increase compared to last year's pace, though inventory remains up 33% from a year ago.
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Delayed Seasonal Patterns: Unlike past years, inventory peaks are occurring later, closer to November. Current market trends show a slower, incremental growth in inventory, with more listings than last year but still fewer sellers than in pre-pandemic years.
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Lack of Seller Panic Nationwide: There’s no sign of mass selling despite high rates; homeowners largely prefer to stay put, contributing to low national new listings. A few local markets, such as Spartanburg, SC, and McAllen, TX, are exceptions, with more sellers than in 2019.
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Pending Sales Slightly Up: Pending sales increased by 9% year-over-year, with 60,000 single-family homes under contract this week. However, growth remains minimal and may be temporary, as buyers are sensitive to mortgage rate increases.
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Stable Home Prices: Median contract prices remain around $389,000, about 5% higher than last year, while asking prices rose just 1%. Buyers' behavior is directly influenced by rate changes, but prices have been resilient despite affordability challenges.
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Coming Soon: 1485 Dougmar Drive, Santa Cruz- This 2,000 sqft 3 bedroom, 2 bath home was purchased by my client off market and has gone through extensive remodeling and will be on the market shortly. Improvements include: new roof, new flooring, new doors, new windows, new on-demand water heater, new bathrooms, new kitchen, new lighting throughout, landscaping, fresh paint, and much more. | |
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4930 Cliff Drive, Capitola
This luxurious oceanfront property in the heart of Capitola is the most affordable oceanfront single family home in Santa Cruz County! This one-of-a kind home is one of only four single family homes located oceanside above the wharf and at the perfect angle to give you panoramic views of the entire Monterey Bay. On clear days you can even see all the way to the point at Big Sur. Spectacular views and easy access to the best parts of Capitola are just a few features that make this home so amazing. Add to that meticulous maintenance, tasteful renovations, and a layout that really maximizes the view and you have a home that is truly a masterpiece.
3 Bedrooms, 2 Bathrooms, 1,288sqft
Listed at $3,999,000
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1460 Lockhart Gulch Rd, Scotts Valley
This 1 bedroom home is 730 sqft with a 300 sqft additional dwelling unit that includes a full bath and kitchenette. This home is well maintained and updated with hardwood floors, granite countertops, high ceilings, and two fireplaces. Outside is a partial wrap around deck with a hot tub. It also includes a 24 hour backup battery in case of power outages. It's vicinity near Mission Springs in Scotts Valley puts you in a great commuting location to Silicon Valley
1 Bedrooms, 1 Bathrooms, 730sqft w/ 300sqft ADU
Listing at $749,000
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Events in Santa Cruz This Weekend |  | |
Beach Boardwalk Chili Cook-off
Cook-Off Schedule
9am-10am Chef's prep (no heat)
10am-1pm Chili cook time
10am Tasting Kits go on sale
1pm Public tasting begins
4pm Winners announced at the Pirate Ship Stage
Try Some Chili!
Boardwalk admission is free! Just purchase a Tasting Kit to sample chili from dozens of competitors. Tasting Kits are $15 each and include eight (8) taste tickets, spoon, cup, and a People’s Choice ballot. Purchase your tasting kit(s) onsite at any ticket booth.
Portion of Proceeds
A portion of the proceeds from Tasting Kit sales will benefit Treasure Cove at Jade Street Park. Treasure Cove will be a universally accessible playground where children with and without disabilities will be able to experience the joy of playing together with their friends and families.
Enter a Team!
The competition features four categories:
Amateur Red
Amateur Vegetarian Red
Professional Red
Professional Vegetarian Red
Awards are given for Best Chili in each category, plus People’s Choice, Most Tasted, and Best Theme.
- Awards include plaques, cash prizes, and bragging rights!
Oct 26 at 1:00PM - 4:00PM
400 Beach Street
Santa Cruz
95060
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Fruition Brewing Brewmaster's Dinner @ Persephone
Chef Cori's specially designed five-course tasting paired with Fruition Brewing's delicious beers.
First Course:
Spiced Chicken and Citrusy Green Bean Salad
Paired with Slip Unfiltered Pilsner
Second Course:
Pancetta and Potato Croquette with Calabrian Chili Honey and Arugula
Paired with Watsonville Wildflower Honey Blonde
Third Course:
Trout Cakes with Fennel and Grapefruit
Paired with Citrosa Hazy IPA
Fourth Course:
Chicken in Gravy with Jalapeno Cornbread
Paired with Opposite Shore West Coast IPA
Fifth Course:
Roasted Strawberries with Thyme Biscuits and Buttermilk Whipped Cream
Paired with Strawberry Buzz
Sunday October 27th, 5:30 $105 / person +18% tip
Persephone
7945 Soquel Drive
Aptos
95003
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At Collins Properties we value relationships over transactions. It doesn't matter to me when you buy or sell. My goal is to help you when the time comes.
My Message to You:
This email is created personally by me every single week and hopefully provides value for you. Your info will NEVER be sold or given away for any reason. Thank you for reading this market update. This is created by yours truly and is not some "canned" data you get elsewhere.
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If you have any questions or would like to schedule a viewing, are in need of renovation guidance, would like to sell your home, or are just in need of a good plumber, feel free to call or email me anytime...seriously
Jesse Collins
831-227-9987
Email Me
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