My concern in the mortgage world is that there might be tightening of guidelines because of money problems. We’ve already seen some loosening of rates for lower FICO borrowers compared to higher FICO borrowers. I don’t think we need to make it easier to not pay larger bills, do we?
But back to banking…JP Morgan purchased First Republic which was the 2nd largest bank failure in US History. Let me repeat that last part…the 2nd LARGEST bank failure in our history. But that’s not news? By allowing JP Morgan to purchase those assets (with the FDIC loaning and covering billions of losses…i.e. YOUR tax money), it gives JPM more than the normal max of 10% of the assets in our country. That’s important because no bank is allowed to have greater than 10%. Oops! Well, I guess you bend the rules when there is a crisis. (I mean no crisis, if I’m Powell.) Guys, we are in trouble. Big trouble. Some people think we are in a bull market (stocks will rally up). When have multiple banks failed in a bull market? Never. I’m not even going to research it. I’m guessing this has never happened.
Will there be more banks? If so, here are the some candidates I’m watching based on drops in stock value the past 2 days: Western Alliance, Metropolitan Bank, HomeStreet, Zions Bank, KeyCorp, HarborOne, and Citizens Financial. Again, not stock advice…and I’m not saying short or sell. Call your FA before doing anything. I’m just letting you know this is going to get ugly.
It’s not just the banking sector, how about commercial property? If you don’t think this skyrocketing office space vacancy rate in San Fran is concerning, then let me tell you that a massive amount of these office loans are covered by regional banks discussed above. Yikes!
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