Atlantic Disturbance 1: 10% Chance of Cyclone Formation in 48 Hours, 60% through 5 Days
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue May 31, 2022
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Near the Yucatan Peninsula and Southeastern Gulf of Mexico: A large and complex area of low pressure is expected to develop near the Yucatan Peninsula and the northwestern Caribbean Sea in a couple of days, partially related to the remnants of Agatha from the eastern Pacific. Despite strong upper-level winds over the area, this system could become a tropical depression while it moves northeastward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and southeastern Gulf of Mexico late this week. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is likely across portions of southeastern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, Guatemala, and Belize during the next few days, spreading across western Cuba, southern Florida, and the Florida Keys by the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.