Dear Stuart,
Supply in Metro Vancouver continued its upward trend in March as sellers eagerly enter the market. Demand in March, on the other hand, was the lowest since March 2019 and is 36.8% below the 10 year seasonal average. These stats get a lot of press and are distinct from the west side market stats but we are facing similar trends here on the west side.
Westside detached home sales, when compared to the 10-year averages, are down by 51% for detached homes, down 30% for apartments and down by 22% for townhomes.
Compared to the 10-year average, supply is up 12% for Westside detached homes, while apartment supply is up 65%, and townhomes are up 87%.
Westside detached home sales in March were 49 sales compared to 33 sales last month. The supply of listings was up 7.7% above last month.
In March, the westside Detached Home average price was down 26% from the peak in August 2023. The Attached home average price was down 10% from the peak in Dec 2024 and the Apartment average price was down 15% from the peak in January 2018.
The Sales to Active Listings ratio (SAL) is a key indicator of market balance and it serves the same purpose as months of supply (MOS) that I have been using to date. I am shifting to SAL because that is the stat used by the Real Estate Board to describe the market activity in Metro Vancouver. It helps determine whether the market favours Buyers or Sellers.
Generally, downward pressure on home prices occurs when the ratio dips below 12% for a period of time. Upward pressure on home prices occurs when the ratio surpasses 20% over several months. Therefore a range between 12% and 20% is considered a balanced market.
The ratio can vary significantly depending on the type of property. Market conditions are dynamic and can change rapidly due to various economic factors. Currently the SAL for Westside detached is 7.4%, attached is 11.5% and apartments is 14.8%.
Increasing inventory levels and lower demand has been softening prices. The uncertainty in the world economy has been dampening the positive effect of the declining interest rates and while more sellers are coming into the market the buyers are sitting on their hands.
There seems to be a high level of dissatisfaction with all levels of government and their policies that ignore the wishes of the constituents in a βwe know what is best for youβ kind of governance. These including zoning encouraging higher density and bylaws with punitive taxation for owners of multiple properties. One beneficial piece of legislation encourages owners to rent or sell properties rather than leaving them vacant which has resulted in more available accommodation and a revitalization of some neighbourhoods.
On the other hand policies banning foreign buyers has had a hugely chilling effect on resale and development of expensive homes and is discouraging construction and investment in many new multifamily projects. Large developments are in planning and permit stages for years and banning the end users for these projects in mid stream is bankrupting some of them and is not creating affordable housing for our young working professionals including fire, police, teachers nurses and service industry workers.
Uncertainty is detrimental to demand and last fall the elections and rates dropping caused some buyers to wait and see. Our current whirlwind of economic uncertainty is still clouding the waters.
Unique and well priced homes under $3M are still getting multiple offers. With the increase in supply there are buying opportunities out there and rates have been coming down.
The listing supply has shown up and now we have a buying opportunity.
February to June is prime time and strategic pricing will be key to achieving best results.
Thinking of Selling? Letβs Talk!
π Call me today to discuss your options and make the most of the upcoming selling season.
Happy Easter!
Best regards
Stuart π°ππ£π·
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